EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins# EB23 - 劳工卡
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ZZ from trackitt
Thanks for your response. Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30
-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for
EB2 I.
1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep.end. Of
this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than
India and China).
2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end,
assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications
and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas are utilized by Sep. 2012
end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012
end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013.
3. In the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495.
4. In the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561.
5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low in the years 2008,
2009, 2010 from other countries whose PD was current (may be due to
recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China.
6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to
eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from your count of TSC filings),
it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the
bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than
India and China.
8. Therefore, my prediction is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and
to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins. Depending upon the number of filings
in Feb and March, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see
any need for retrogression if at all until summer.
Thanks for your response. Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30
-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for
EB2 I.
1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep.end. Of
this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than
India and China).
2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end,
assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications
and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas are utilized by Sep. 2012
end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012
end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013.
3. In the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495.
4. In the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561.
5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low in the years 2008,
2009, 2010 from other countries whose PD was current (may be due to
recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China.
6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to
eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from your count of TSC filings),
it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the
bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than
India and China.
8. Therefore, my prediction is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and
to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins. Depending upon the number of filings
in Feb and March, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see
any need for retrogression if at all until summer.
