i didnot know the meaning of 485 inventory numbers until yesterday. here is
the interpretation. if the number is greater than 0, the application is
greater than greened in that month, inventory increase. if none or negative,
less than greened, inventory decrease.
the jan inventory is currently at 873, more than last oct inventory, so
there are more applications than greened over the three months period. lets
assume average moving speed, or 220 a months, or 660 get card. add 873 you
have 1533.
here is prediction after jan. note that the monthly inventory jump back to
62, or more application than greened again, because the cut off date passed
the crisis time, there is no reason to believe less people will apply. use
the lowest estimate 60, then feb and mar, you have 440 green and
inventory number 993 that is 2093.
ok, till this moment, we did not even count boat jumpers yet. based
on last year e3 data, roughly 1900 485 plus 600 CP. lets assume same for
this year, 485 = 2093- 600/12*5 = 1843. pretty much the 1900 mark
any reason to expect apr movement? shall we thank our dear and caring
eb2? thanks, but no thanks.