2个NIKON D90 FOR SALE# PhotoGear - 摄影器材
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According to http://pediatrics.about.com/od/childabuse/a/05_abuse_stats.htm
prior probability for P(abuse) = 1/58
therefore, P(noabuse) = 57/58
According to http://www.mitbbs.com/article/NextGeneration/34304149_0.html
P(hemorrhage|abuse) = 0.278
P(hemorrhage|noabuse) = 0.0007
Therefore, we have
P(abuse|hemorrhage) = P(abuse)*P(hemorrhage|abuse)/P(hemorrhage)
= (1/58)*0.278/((1/58)*0.278+(1-1/58)*0.0007) = 0.8745
prior probability for P(abuse) = 1/58
therefore, P(noabuse) = 57/58
According to http://www.mitbbs.com/article/NextGeneration/34304149_0.html
P(hemorrhage|abuse) = 0.278
P(hemorrhage|noabuse) = 0.0007
Therefore, we have
P(abuse|hemorrhage) = P(abuse)*P(hemorrhage|abuse)/P(hemorrhage)
= (1/58)*0.278/((1/58)*0.278+(1-1/58)*0.0007) = 0.8745
