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question about TIP bond

question about TIP bond# Stock

r*m2010-01-06 08:01

1 楼

Currently, 100% of my 401K is in stocks, now that it is out of water and
actually with some profit, I would like to rebalance it.
I want to move 50% into a inflation linked bond fund:
"The CREF Inflation-Linked Bond Account seeks a long-term rate of return
that outpaces inflation, primarily through investment in inflation-indexed
bonds—fixed-income securities whose returns are designed to track a
specified inflation index over the life of the bond"
Is it a good time to do so? I have no idea how

b*y2010-01-06 08:01

2 楼

如果要hedge 通胀，为什么不直接买些commodity etf 呢？
我觉得整个债券市场都会走熊市，tips的return本质上是real rate，现在 real rate
肯定是太低了（接近零），所以肯定会往上，所以我认为现在买tip不是好时候

r*m2010-01-06 08:01

3 楼

by the way, how safe are these bond fund? can they actually lose capital
value substantially? I looked at a 10 year graph of the fund, it seems like
a slow up movement with about 7% annual yield, can i count on that trend to
continue?

b*y2010-01-06 08:01

4 楼

安全性应该没问题吧，不过annual 7%? 很难保证吧？

like
to

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: by the way, how safe are these bond fund? can they actually lose capital
: value substantially? I looked at a 10 year graph of the fund, it seems like
: a slow up movement with about 7% annual yield, can i count on that trend to
: continue?

r*m2010-01-06 08:01

5 楼

Thanks.
I just want to diversify away from 100% stock. I think $ may get stronger,
so I don't want to buy into commodity right now.
As for the inflation linked bond fund, I don't know how exactly that works.
If the real rate now is 0, and increased to 2% after 6 month, will my bond
fund lose value? Am I locked in with 0% real rate, or do I get market real
rate?

rate

【在 b********y 的大作中提到】

: 如果要hedge 通胀，为什么不直接买些commodity etf 呢？
: 我觉得整个债券市场都会走熊市，tips的return本质上是real rate，现在 real rate
: 肯定是太低了（接近零），所以肯定会往上，所以我认为现在买tip不是好时候

b*y2010-01-06 08:01

6 楼

real rate 在这儿是discount rate，所以利率上升bond就跌，如果用nominal rate来
考虑的话，一方面通胀上升导致bond价值上升，另一方面discount rate也上升，从相
反的两个方向影响bond价格，所以这儿用real rate考虑更清楚一些

.

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: Thanks.
: I just want to diversify away from 100% stock. I think $ may get stronger,
: so I don't want to buy into commodity right now.
: As for the inflation linked bond fund, I don't know how exactly that works.
: If the real rate now is 0, and increased to 2% after 6 month, will my bond
: fund lose value? Am I locked in with 0% real rate, or do I get market real
: rate?
:
: rate

r*m2010-01-06 08:01

7 楼

see:

【在 b********y 的大作中提到】

: 安全性应该没问题吧，不过annual 7%? 很难保证吧？
:
: like
: to