给linkedin快速估值 (转载)# Stock
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【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Investment
标 题: 给linkedin快速估值
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 24 19:23:25 2011, 美东)
用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级，very very rough.
assumptions:
1. target market for US:
a: total workers in US 100M
b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
c: people change job every 10 years
d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire
->$3Billon per year from US when the marekt is relatively mature
2. worldwide market:
2 x US market (considering extensibility across border, lower than google
, close to priceline)
->$6B worldwide
3. market share:
50% (refer to other dominant platforms google/bidu/priceline/ebay,
slightly lower than google, higher than priceline)
->$3B revenue for linkedin
4. operating margin:
30% (refer to google/bidu/priceline/ebay...)
5. P/E
15-18 when relatively mature
->P/S: 3.5-4
->market cap: $12B, $120/share
6: taking how long to reach target condition
5 years
($400million for 2011 -> $3Billion for 2016, 50% annual growth)
7. discounted value:
$85/share (8% discout rate)
conclusion: $85接近目前的价格。如果linkedin真能dominate这个professional
development/recruitment market, 基本应该就值这个价钱，或者稍稍被低估。这个
market的总量还是比较有限。
发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Investment
标 题: 给linkedin快速估值
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 24 19:23:25 2011, 美东)
用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级，very very rough.
assumptions:
1. target market for US:
a: total workers in US 100M
b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
c: people change job every 10 years
d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire
->$3Billon per year from US when the marekt is relatively mature
2. worldwide market:
2 x US market (considering extensibility across border, lower than google
, close to priceline)
->$6B worldwide
3. market share:
50% (refer to other dominant platforms google/bidu/priceline/ebay,
slightly lower than google, higher than priceline)
->$3B revenue for linkedin
4. operating margin:
30% (refer to google/bidu/priceline/ebay...)
5. P/E
15-18 when relatively mature
->P/S: 3.5-4
->market cap: $12B, $120/share
6: taking how long to reach target condition
5 years
($400million for 2011 -> $3Billion for 2016, 50% annual growth)
7. discounted value:
$85/share (8% discout rate)
conclusion: $85接近目前的价格。如果linkedin真能dominate这个professional
development/recruitment market, 基本应该就值这个价钱，或者稍稍被低估。这个
market的总量还是比较有限。
