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衰退的概率# Stock
c*r
1
Year-over-year growth now stands at 1.6%. In most cases when growth dipped
below 2% a recession was already under way or started soon thereafter. There
were seven instances of sub-2% growth since 1970 and a recession was
avoided only once. There were thirteen instances of sub-2% growth since
World War II and a recession was avoided only twice.
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s*t
2
double dip是可能的.
三十年代的double dip把股市又跌掉了一大半.
所以现在有cash的要耐心持住
, wait until the big crash.

There

【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Year-over-year growth now stands at 1.6%. In most cases when growth dipped
: below 2% a recession was already under way or started soon thereafter. There
: were seven instances of sub-2% growth since 1970 and a recession was
: avoided only once. There were thirteen instances of sub-2% growth since
: World War II and a recession was avoided only twice.

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s*8
3
1.6真的假的还不知道呢。如果在revise一下,那真的是disaster.

There

【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Year-over-year growth now stands at 1.6%. In most cases when growth dipped
: below 2% a recession was already under way or started soon thereafter. There
: were seven instances of sub-2% growth since 1970 and a recession was
: avoided only once. There were thirteen instances of sub-2% growth since
: World War II and a recession was avoided only twice.

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c*r
4
In response to an informal Dow Jones survey of 45 economists, portfolio
managers and financial consultants in attendance, two thirds gave a better
than 50% chance of recession in the next year. About 25% put the odds of
recession at better than 75%.
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c*r
5
作实了。
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e*s
6
天朝低于 8% 就是衰退啦 ~~~~~~~~lol
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e*s
7
法国/德国 衰退中 ?
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