h*o
2 楼
昨天跟你说了百度要跌破100,你还嘲笑锅。
c*p
3 楼
昨天选了SINA. 力度明显不如BIDU啊.
I*e
12 楼
Good luck.
for something like BIDU, which has 90% options implied vol, your claim isn't
as extreme as it appears. Weekly vol is at 12.5%, and 11 dollars off
yesterday's near 110 close is about 0.8 sigma.
If BIDU follows Brownian motion, then the likelihood of it touching 100 at
one point of the next week is at 43%.
On the other hand, if you are claiming that BIDU will close below 100 next
Friday, then the likelihood is much lower (exactly at 1/2 of the number
above) at 21%. Then again, with the same likelihood BIDU will be >122 next
Friday.
-iCare-
【在 h******o 的大作中提到】
: 考古去,我说的是下周
for something like BIDU, which has 90% options implied vol, your claim isn't
as extreme as it appears. Weekly vol is at 12.5%, and 11 dollars off
yesterday's near 110 close is about 0.8 sigma.
If BIDU follows Brownian motion, then the likelihood of it touching 100 at
one point of the next week is at 43%.
On the other hand, if you are claiming that BIDU will close below 100 next
Friday, then the likelihood is much lower (exactly at 1/2 of the number
above) at 21%. Then again, with the same likelihood BIDU will be >122 next
Friday.
-iCare-
【在 h******o 的大作中提到】
: 考古去,我说的是下周
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