j*h
2 楼
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/stocks-less-risky-think
As of this morning we were discussing the wild ride stocks and commodities
have been on during 2011, with the S&P trading in a greater than 27% range,
yet going nowhere since last year at this time. According to friend of
Breakout, Jim Paulsen, the sense that the market is crazier than ever is
right, but misses the point of successful investing.
Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, has run
the numbers from the last hundred years, using the Dow Jones Industrial
Average as his market proxy. According to his work, the magnitude of the
daily fluctuations rivals only the volatility seen during the Great
Depression.
"Traders therefore, that care about day to day marks are facing the highest
risk they've ever seen," Paulsen explains. However, "volatility over longer
periods of time is no different in recent years than it's been throughout
the post-war era."
Paulsen's conclusion is that long-term investors have much less to be afraid
than day traders. The problem is that the noise and activity of the near-
term is masking a risk/reward setup, therefore those with a long-term
horizon could be overestimating their risk exposure.
"There's been a lot of good things going on while the market's been flat,"
says Paulsen. The affable Minnesotan notes that stocks are trading at 1/3
the multiple of 1998, in effect consolidating the gains from the '82- '07
bull move and becoming cheaper in the process.
Regarding the obvious risks (global, economic or otherwise), Paulsen says
they're market positives. "Bull markets are not about an absence of problems
," he notes. "Bull markets, in many cases, are when the fear is far in
excess of the reality on the ground."
Only time will tell just how accurate the public's general sense of doom may
be. In the meantime, Paulsen says investors need to avoid letting the
headlines lead to rash decision making.
"Make sure you still have a respectable long-term asset allocation in place
and you shouldn't violate that," he advises, at least not in response to the
news of the day. For those of a more tweaky nature "sometimes the best
thing to do is just don't check but maybe once a month. If you do you'll
find out it's been a boring year."
How about you? Has 2011 bored you to tears are scared you to death? Are you
obsessing over the tape or sitting idle while the world figures things out
for itself? Let us know in space below or via our Facebook page.
As of this morning we were discussing the wild ride stocks and commodities
have been on during 2011, with the S&P trading in a greater than 27% range,
yet going nowhere since last year at this time. According to friend of
Breakout, Jim Paulsen, the sense that the market is crazier than ever is
right, but misses the point of successful investing.
Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management, has run
the numbers from the last hundred years, using the Dow Jones Industrial
Average as his market proxy. According to his work, the magnitude of the
daily fluctuations rivals only the volatility seen during the Great
Depression.
"Traders therefore, that care about day to day marks are facing the highest
risk they've ever seen," Paulsen explains. However, "volatility over longer
periods of time is no different in recent years than it's been throughout
the post-war era."
Paulsen's conclusion is that long-term investors have much less to be afraid
than day traders. The problem is that the noise and activity of the near-
term is masking a risk/reward setup, therefore those with a long-term
horizon could be overestimating their risk exposure.
"There's been a lot of good things going on while the market's been flat,"
says Paulsen. The affable Minnesotan notes that stocks are trading at 1/3
the multiple of 1998, in effect consolidating the gains from the '82- '07
bull move and becoming cheaper in the process.
Regarding the obvious risks (global, economic or otherwise), Paulsen says
they're market positives. "Bull markets are not about an absence of problems
," he notes. "Bull markets, in many cases, are when the fear is far in
excess of the reality on the ground."
Only time will tell just how accurate the public's general sense of doom may
be. In the meantime, Paulsen says investors need to avoid letting the
headlines lead to rash decision making.
"Make sure you still have a respectable long-term asset allocation in place
and you shouldn't violate that," he advises, at least not in response to the
news of the day. For those of a more tweaky nature "sometimes the best
thing to do is just don't check but maybe once a month. If you do you'll
find out it's been a boring year."
How about you? Has 2011 bored you to tears are scared you to death? Are you
obsessing over the tape or sitting idle while the world figures things out
for itself? Let us know in space below or via our Facebook page.
s*y
3 楼
这个一般是亲友给你办的吧，自己办比较weird，除非有特殊情况,一般due date前两三
个月。
个月。
m*y
4 楼
我们公司一般都是在due date前三到四周的时候办，准妈妈的比较熟的同事凑份子每人
$20，老板愿意多出的无所谓，pool the money之后买一张giftcard，一张baby shower
card, 买个蛋糕，买些吃蛋糕的盘子啊布置room的气球啊彩带啊，最后大家一起吃蛋
糕，送卡片，送giftcard，说笑一阵，搞定。
$20，老板愿意多出的无所谓，pool the money之后买一张giftcard，一张baby shower
card, 买个蛋糕，买些吃蛋糕的盘子啊布置room的气球啊彩带啊，最后大家一起吃蛋
糕，送卡片，送giftcard，说笑一阵，搞定。
m*t
5 楼
这个是朋友，或公司给你办，也不会在你家，你一点也不用操心，也不用准备什么。到
时候去了享受就行。一般due date前一个月。
【在 v******s 的大作中提到】
: 通常在第几周办更容易些？
: 如何准备呢？
: 如果朋友太多，要不要分批呀？
时候去了享受就行。一般due date前一个月。
【在 v******s 的大作中提到】
: 通常在第几周办更容易些？
: 如何准备呢？
: 如果朋友太多，要不要分批呀？
j*e
6 楼
我是生之前2周半，
人越多不是越热闹么？挺好的
我还没给别人办过
人越多不是越热闹么？挺好的
我还没给别人办过
v*s
7 楼
50几个人，那也太多了吧，计划分２批！
【在 j*********e 的大作中提到】
: 我是生之前2周半，
: 人越多不是越热闹么？挺好的
: 我还没给别人办过
【在 j*********e 的大作中提到】
: 我是生之前2周半，
: 人越多不是越热闹么？挺好的
: 我还没给别人办过
b*6
8 楼
我知道的baby shower都是朋友或者同事给操办的，而且都想尽量给准妈妈一个惊喜
自己主持办baby shower好像有点奇怪啊
自己主持办baby shower好像有点奇怪啊
l*h
9 楼
我们公司中国人多，从来没听说过baby shower.
s*y
10 楼
中国人的习惯一般都是生完之后看孩子的时候送礼吧, 反正我们朋友都是这样的，公司
同事关系一般的就无所谓了，没有人情也是好事。
【在 l********h 的大作中提到】
: 我们公司中国人多，从来没听说过baby shower.
同事关系一般的就无所谓了，没有人情也是好事。
【在 l********h 的大作中提到】
: 我们公司中国人多，从来没听说过baby shower.
x*a
11 楼
抱歉我今天心情不好说话直接，劝lz还是省省吧，哪有自己给自己张罗办“送礼会”的
，脸皮也太厚了吧。雷焦了我了。这个都应该是你的亲朋好友主动给你办的，前提是你
人品人缘大家都觉得不错，愿意出血给你shower。 唉。 顶锅盖跑~~~~~~
，脸皮也太厚了吧。雷焦了我了。这个都应该是你的亲朋好友主动给你办的，前提是你
人品人缘大家都觉得不错，愿意出血给你shower。 唉。 顶锅盖跑~~~~~~
v*s
12 楼
赫赫！没事！
偶就一土人，其实不知道具体baby shower怎么操作的！以前一些朋友家办过（感觉是
自己办的吧，
也没太搞清楚！）
最近，总有朋友问偶，baby shower的时候叫他们，本来之前也没计划搞这个来着！似
乎觉得需要
搞！
总体上，觉得参加过的baby shower就是一类“主题party”，生孩子前朋友大聚会，生
完了忙都忙不
过来，一时半会哪有时间再玩呀！
不过，偶也要直接说一句：宝宝版一直都挺和善和nice的，MM心情不好可以理解，但也
不要没搞清
楚就把stress乱仍出来吧！
直人对直人，呵呵！
【在 x*****a 的大作中提到】
: 抱歉我今天心情不好说话直接，劝lz还是省省吧，哪有自己给自己张罗办“送礼会”的
: ，脸皮也太厚了吧。雷焦了我了。这个都应该是你的亲朋好友主动给你办的，前提是你
: 人品人缘大家都觉得不错，愿意出血给你shower。 唉。 顶锅盖跑~~~~~~
偶就一土人，其实不知道具体baby shower怎么操作的！以前一些朋友家办过（感觉是
自己办的吧，
也没太搞清楚！）
最近，总有朋友问偶，baby shower的时候叫他们，本来之前也没计划搞这个来着！似
乎觉得需要
搞！
总体上，觉得参加过的baby shower就是一类“主题party”，生孩子前朋友大聚会，生
完了忙都忙不
过来，一时半会哪有时间再玩呀！
不过，偶也要直接说一句：宝宝版一直都挺和善和nice的，MM心情不好可以理解，但也
不要没搞清
楚就把stress乱仍出来吧！
直人对直人，呵呵！
【在 x*****a 的大作中提到】
: 抱歉我今天心情不好说话直接，劝lz还是省省吧，哪有自己给自己张罗办“送礼会”的
: ，脸皮也太厚了吧。雷焦了我了。这个都应该是你的亲朋好友主动给你办的，前提是你
: 人品人缘大家都觉得不错，愿意出血给你shower。 唉。 顶锅盖跑~~~~~~
v*s
13 楼
update:
也不知道是在“辐射云事件”“地震消息”的影响下，还是孕期情绪比较敏感，
本来刚读完xinmama回帖并回贴时，还没觉得什么！
但居然回帖后１分钟，哭了！第一次发贴被数落，居然还是在宝宝版！宝宝版一贯是给
大家祝福的比较多呀！
也不知道是在“辐射云事件”“地震消息”的影响下，还是孕期情绪比较敏感，
本来刚读完xinmama回帖并回贴时，还没觉得什么！
但居然回帖后１分钟，哭了！第一次发贴被数落，居然还是在宝宝版！宝宝版一贯是给
大家祝福的比较多呀！
x*a
14 楼
lz妹妹, 太对不住拉,其实我发完贴子就有点担心,觉得可别把你气到, 结果...真是对
不住对不住啊. 是我说话口无遮拦,而且我当时也想过了,兴许人家lz就是因为周围朋友
打听了这事,才问的....不过我太懒,发过了贴子,自己很快就跑了,也忘了这回事....唉
. lz, 千万别忘心里去.
不住对不住啊. 是我说话口无遮拦,而且我当时也想过了,兴许人家lz就是因为周围朋友
打听了这事,才问的....不过我太懒,发过了贴子,自己很快就跑了,也忘了这回事....唉
. lz, 千万别忘心里去.
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