l*1
2 楼
需要有绿卡吗,家庭收入低于多少可以申请
N*D
3 楼
我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
VO: 为什么老公不去
Mom: 工作，忙
VO: 你先生年薪多少？
Mom: 税后...
（地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
VO: 你还有一个儿子？
Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
VO: 小儿子回来过没？
Mom: 06年回来过
VO: 有房子么？
Mom: 有.....
VO: 有照片么？
Mom：有（递上）
之后VO看照片问了些问题。我妈的父母兄弟姐妹老公儿子都在国内，可能是个优势。一
一介绍了一下，VO就放过了。
之前我妈遇到不少问题，按手印折腾了半天，然后签的时候冲上去白活了一阵子，发现
不是叫的她，又回队里等着。总算是有惊无险，平安度过。
希望各位都好运，和家人早日团聚。
VO: 为什么老公不去
Mom: 工作，忙
VO: 你先生年薪多少？
Mom: 税后...
（地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
VO: 你还有一个儿子？
Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
VO: 小儿子回来过没？
Mom: 06年回来过
VO: 有房子么？
Mom: 有.....
VO: 有照片么？
Mom：有（递上）
之后VO看照片问了些问题。我妈的父母兄弟姐妹老公儿子都在国内，可能是个优势。一
一介绍了一下，VO就放过了。
之前我妈遇到不少问题，按手印折腾了半天，然后签的时候冲上去白活了一阵子，发现
不是叫的她，又回队里等着。总算是有惊无险，平安度过。
希望各位都好运，和家人早日团聚。
c*g
4 楼
有什么软件可以让iPod touch可以有中文输入?
t*n
5 楼
1/2 cash
1/4 gold miner
1/4 reit
1/4 gold miner
1/4 reit
y*i
6 楼
google CHP+ AND WIC
r*o
7 楼
恭喜啊。。
【在 N*D 的大作中提到】
: 我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
: VO: 为什么老公不去
: Mom: 工作，忙
: VO: 你先生年薪多少？
: Mom: 税后...
: （地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
: VO: 你还有一个儿子？
: Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
: VO: 小儿子回来过没？
: Mom: 06年回来过
【在 N*D 的大作中提到】
: 我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
: VO: 为什么老公不去
: Mom: 工作，忙
: VO: 你先生年薪多少？
: Mom: 税后...
: （地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
: VO: 你还有一个儿子？
: Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
: VO: 小儿子回来过没？
: Mom: 06年回来过
wy
8 楼
居然没有自带的？
【在 c*g 的大作中提到】
: 有什么软件可以让iPod touch可以有中文输入?
【在 c*g 的大作中提到】
: 有什么软件可以让iPod touch可以有中文输入?
w*y
9 楼
reit 有mf推荐吗?
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 1/2 cash
: 1/4 gold miner
: 1/4 reit
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 1/2 cash
: 1/4 gold miner
: 1/4 reit
a*z
10 楼
gxgx!
【在 N*D 的大作中提到】
: 我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
: VO: 为什么老公不去
: Mom: 工作，忙
: VO: 你先生年薪多少？
: Mom: 税后...
: （地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
: VO: 你还有一个儿子？
: Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
: VO: 小儿子回来过没？
: Mom: 06年回来过
【在 N*D 的大作中提到】
: 我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
: VO: 为什么老公不去
: Mom: 工作，忙
: VO: 你先生年薪多少？
: Mom: 税后...
: （地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
: VO: 你还有一个儿子？
: Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
: VO: 小儿子回来过没？
: Mom: 06年回来过
b*d
11 楼
有. 拼音和手写.
f*e
12 楼
我觉得现在最好退缩回money-maket
c*h
13 楼
恭喜
【在 N*D 的大作中提到】
: 我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
: VO: 为什么老公不去
: Mom: 工作，忙
: VO: 你先生年薪多少？
: Mom: 税后...
: （地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
: VO: 你还有一个儿子？
: Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
: VO: 小儿子回来过没？
: Mom: 06年回来过
【在 N*D 的大作中提到】
: 我妈一个人，VO是个黑人男的，
: VO: 为什么老公不去
: Mom: 工作，忙
: VO: 你先生年薪多少？
: Mom: 税后...
: （地上存折，工资证明啥，VO不要）
: VO: 你还有一个儿子？
: Mom: 在武汉上班，刚买了房
: VO: 小儿子回来过没？
: Mom: 06年回来过
c*g
14 楼
自带的就有。。。。输入的时候按那个类似地球的图标切换。
s*s
15 楼
100% money market
w*8
16 楼
我也是武汉的，我妈20号2000，占点喜气。
s*a
17 楼
自带的可以用，但weFIT很好用
【在 c*g 的大作中提到】
: 有什么软件可以让iPod touch可以有中文输入?
【在 c*g 的大作中提到】
: 有什么软件可以让iPod touch可以有中文输入?
t*e
18 楼
为什么？股市要大跌？请原谅我这个菜鸟问这样一个低级的问题。：（
【在 f******e 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得现在最好退缩回money-maket
【在 f******e 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得现在最好退缩回money-maket
s*s
19 楼
REIT 的 ETF 岂不是更稳？
比如IYR
你的钱你作主
【在 w***y 的大作中提到】
: reit 有mf推荐吗?
比如IYR
你的钱你作主
【在 w***y 的大作中提到】
: reit 有mf推荐吗?
f*e
20 楼
我也是菜鸟
有时候也timing市场
【在 t********e 的大作中提到】
: 为什么？股市要大跌？请原谅我这个菜鸟问这样一个低级的问题。：（
有时候也timing市场
【在 t********e 的大作中提到】
: 为什么？股市要大跌？请原谅我这个菜鸟问这样一个低级的问题。：（
g*g
21 楼
In a bull market, buy on every pull back. And before
we get under 200MA, it's bull market.
【在 f******e 的大作中提到】
: 我也是菜鸟
: 有时候也timing市场
we get under 200MA, it's bull market.
【在 f******e 的大作中提到】
: 我也是菜鸟
: 有时候也timing市场
l*u
22 楼
为什么，现在gold和reit的泡沫比美股要大吧？S&P500 per ounce of gold可是历史低
点。。。
Fed都说要2% inflation了，咱还留1/2 cash?
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 1/2 cash
: 1/4 gold miner
: 1/4 reit
点。。。
Fed都说要2% inflation了，咱还留1/2 cash?
【在 t****n 的大作中提到】
: 1/2 cash
: 1/4 gold miner
: 1/4 reit
l*u
23 楼
股市不会大跌，pull back 5-10%是有可能的，不过谁也说不好是现在还是几个月以后。
我同意good bug的观点，对美股的长期牛市（10年horizon）有信心，所以留一些side
line cash buy dips是应该的，大量留cash, gold没必要。REIT不好说，在未来通胀的
情况下，REIT的high yield很吸引人，不过REIT fund的valuation相对现在的房市来说
有些高了？
【在 t********e 的大作中提到】
: 为什么？股市要大跌？请原谅我这个菜鸟问这样一个低级的问题。：（
我同意good bug的观点，对美股的长期牛市（10年horizon）有信心，所以留一些side
line cash buy dips是应该的，大量留cash, gold没必要。REIT不好说，在未来通胀的
情况下，REIT的high yield很吸引人，不过REIT fund的valuation相对现在的房市来说
有些高了？
【在 t********e 的大作中提到】
: 为什么？股市要大跌？请原谅我这个菜鸟问这样一个低级的问题。：（
p*r
24 楼
I have the opposite view: I have faith in short-term (few months) but
definitely don't have faith in long-term in US equity.
The US stock market is over-valued by historical standard and the profit
margin is also at historical peak. The inflation-adjusted trend points to
downward.
That said, for short-term, it can go higher because the politicians want
it higher to get re-elected. But one needs to pay attention to all the
risks on the horizon...so far, there is no immediate risk, JMHO.
后。
side
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 股市不会大跌，pull back 5-10%是有可能的，不过谁也说不好是现在还是几个月以后。
: 我同意good bug的观点，对美股的长期牛市（10年horizon）有信心，所以留一些side
: line cash buy dips是应该的，大量留cash, gold没必要。REIT不好说，在未来通胀的
: 情况下，REIT的high yield很吸引人，不过REIT fund的valuation相对现在的房市来说
: 有些高了？
definitely don't have faith in long-term in US equity.
The US stock market is over-valued by historical standard and the profit
margin is also at historical peak. The inflation-adjusted trend points to
downward.
That said, for short-term, it can go higher because the politicians want
it higher to get re-elected. But one needs to pay attention to all the
risks on the horizon...so far, there is no immediate risk, JMHO.
后。
side
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 股市不会大跌，pull back 5-10%是有可能的，不过谁也说不好是现在还是几个月以后。
: 我同意good bug的观点，对美股的长期牛市（10年horizon）有信心，所以留一些side
: line cash buy dips是应该的，大量留cash, gold没必要。REIT不好说，在未来通胀的
: 情况下，REIT的high yield很吸引人，不过REIT fund的valuation相对现在的房市来说
: 有些高了？
s*n
25 楼
Gold is far far from bubble. I don't understand where this 'bubble'
conclusion came from?
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 为什么，现在gold和reit的泡沫比美股要大吧？S&P500 per ounce of gold可是历史低
: 点。。。
: Fed都说要2% inflation了，咱还留1/2 cash?
conclusion came from?
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 为什么，现在gold和reit的泡沫比美股要大吧？S&P500 per ounce of gold可是历史低
: 点。。。
: Fed都说要2% inflation了，咱还留1/2 cash?
S*C
26 楼
Gold-oil ratio stands at 16x now, a little higher than historical norm, but
not in bubble territory, at least not yet.
not in bubble territory, at least not yet.
t*m
27 楼
good point.
how do you derive the conclusion that the US stock market is over-valued by
historical standard?
胀的
来说
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: I have the opposite view: I have faith in short-term (few months) but
: definitely don't have faith in long-term in US equity.
: The US stock market is over-valued by historical standard and the profit
: margin is also at historical peak. The inflation-adjusted trend points to
: downward.
: That said, for short-term, it can go higher because the politicians want
: it higher to get re-elected. But one needs to pay attention to all the
: risks on the horizon...so far, there is no immediate risk, JMHO.
:
: 后。
how do you derive the conclusion that the US stock market is over-valued by
historical standard?
胀的
来说
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: I have the opposite view: I have faith in short-term (few months) but
: definitely don't have faith in long-term in US equity.
: The US stock market is over-valued by historical standard and the profit
: margin is also at historical peak. The inflation-adjusted trend points to
: downward.
: That said, for short-term, it can go higher because the politicians want
: it higher to get re-elected. But one needs to pay attention to all the
: risks on the horizon...so far, there is no immediate risk, JMHO.
:
: 后。
S*C
28 楼
Professor Robert Shillers PE10.
by
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: good point.
: how do you derive the conclusion that the US stock market is over-valued by
: historical standard?
:
: 胀的
: 来说
by
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: good point.
: how do you derive the conclusion that the US stock market is over-valued by
: historical standard?
:
: 胀的
: 来说
g*g
29 楼
I wouldn't call 10 years, last bull market lasts 4-5 years and if
the history repeats itself, we are half way into it.
Regarding which sector, I would vote tech. NASDAQ is outperforming
SPY/DJI by a good margin. real estate, health, commodities are all
cyclic but tech has been steadily getting higher profit for last
30 years.
后。
side
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 股市不会大跌，pull back 5-10%是有可能的，不过谁也说不好是现在还是几个月以后。
: 我同意good bug的观点，对美股的长期牛市（10年horizon）有信心，所以留一些side
: line cash buy dips是应该的，大量留cash, gold没必要。REIT不好说，在未来通胀的
: 情况下，REIT的high yield很吸引人，不过REIT fund的valuation相对现在的房市来说
: 有些高了？
the history repeats itself, we are half way into it.
Regarding which sector, I would vote tech. NASDAQ is outperforming
SPY/DJI by a good margin. real estate, health, commodities are all
cyclic but tech has been steadily getting higher profit for last
30 years.
后。
side
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 股市不会大跌，pull back 5-10%是有可能的，不过谁也说不好是现在还是几个月以后。
: 我同意good bug的观点，对美股的长期牛市（10年horizon）有信心，所以留一些side
: line cash buy dips是应该的，大量留cash, gold没必要。REIT不好说，在未来通胀的
: 情况下，REIT的high yield很吸引人，不过REIT fund的valuation相对现在的房市来说
: 有些高了？
p*r
30 楼
Right. The chart is here:
http://www.multpl.com/
There are only three times that the PE10 was higher:
1. 1929
2. Dotcom bubble
3. 2004-2006 rally triggered by "Greenspan Put" that turns out to be
unsustainable.
I won't bet that "Bernanke Put" would eventually fare any better. But I have
yet to see major tipping point of this bubble. Investors that prefer safety
should have already exited the market.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Professor Robert Shillers PE10.
:
: by
http://www.multpl.com/
There are only three times that the PE10 was higher:
1. 1929
2. Dotcom bubble
3. 2004-2006 rally triggered by "Greenspan Put" that turns out to be
unsustainable.
I won't bet that "Bernanke Put" would eventually fare any better. But I have
yet to see major tipping point of this bubble. Investors that prefer safety
should have already exited the market.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Professor Robert Shillers PE10.
:
: by
l*u
31 楼
Isn't it true that interest rate should be factored in? BTW, the data I saw
for S&P500 P/E is 15, at least from a forward PE stand point of view... You
got to admit that the overall US ecomonic is recovering. There's so many
data supporting this.
The basic question that bothers me a lot is that why commodity, gold and
cash are investments...
have
safety
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Right. The chart is here:
: http://www.multpl.com/
: There are only three times that the PE10 was higher:
: 1. 1929
: 2. Dotcom bubble
: 3. 2004-2006 rally triggered by "Greenspan Put" that turns out to be
: unsustainable.
: I won't bet that "Bernanke Put" would eventually fare any better. But I have
: yet to see major tipping point of this bubble. Investors that prefer safety
: should have already exited the market.
for S&P500 P/E is 15, at least from a forward PE stand point of view... You
got to admit that the overall US ecomonic is recovering. There's so many
data supporting this.
The basic question that bothers me a lot is that why commodity, gold and
cash are investments...
have
safety
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Right. The chart is here:
: http://www.multpl.com/
: There are only three times that the PE10 was higher:
: 1. 1929
: 2. Dotcom bubble
: 3. 2004-2006 rally triggered by "Greenspan Put" that turns out to be
: unsustainable.
: I won't bet that "Bernanke Put" would eventually fare any better. But I have
: yet to see major tipping point of this bubble. Investors that prefer safety
: should have already exited the market.
l*u
32 楼
为什么历史会重复自己呢？难道连着两个lost decade，那样美国大概也该完了吧？如
果真是这样，咱们还存什么401K啊，应该赶快逃回中国吧？：-）
我觉得tech之所以一直比较牛，主要还是跟tech是非常global的市场有关系，而且tech
的话应该只能投指数吧，个股风险太高了。美国最近确实衰啊。。。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: I wouldn't call 10 years, last bull market lasts 4-5 years and if
: the history repeats itself, we are half way into it.
: Regarding which sector, I would vote tech. NASDAQ is outperforming
: SPY/DJI by a good margin. real estate, health, commodities are all
: cyclic but tech has been steadily getting higher profit for last
: 30 years.
:
: 后。
: side
果真是这样，咱们还存什么401K啊，应该赶快逃回中国吧？：-）
我觉得tech之所以一直比较牛，主要还是跟tech是非常global的市场有关系，而且tech
的话应该只能投指数吧，个股风险太高了。美国最近确实衰啊。。。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: I wouldn't call 10 years, last bull market lasts 4-5 years and if
: the history repeats itself, we are half way into it.
: Regarding which sector, I would vote tech. NASDAQ is outperforming
: SPY/DJI by a good margin. real estate, health, commodities are all
: cyclic but tech has been steadily getting higher profit for last
: 30 years.
:
: 后。
: side
s*s
33 楼
日本股市连着两个LOSTDECADE
不照样有台湾人，中国大陆人移民到日本？
你逻辑有问题
tech
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 为什么历史会重复自己呢？难道连着两个lost decade，那样美国大概也该完了吧？如
: 果真是这样，咱们还存什么401K啊，应该赶快逃回中国吧？：-）
: 我觉得tech之所以一直比较牛，主要还是跟tech是非常global的市场有关系，而且tech
: 的话应该只能投指数吧，个股风险太高了。美国最近确实衰啊。。。
不照样有台湾人，中国大陆人移民到日本？
你逻辑有问题
tech
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 为什么历史会重复自己呢？难道连着两个lost decade，那样美国大概也该完了吧？如
: 果真是这样，咱们还存什么401K啊，应该赶快逃回中国吧？：-）
: 我觉得tech之所以一直比较牛，主要还是跟tech是非常global的市场有关系，而且tech
: 的话应该只能投指数吧，个股风险太高了。美国最近确实衰啊。。。
l*u
34 楼
我只是说既然stuck在美国了，就还是得有点信心不是？好事儿咋能都让咱摊上了呢？
讨论问题么，没有一定谁对谁错 ：-）
还有我觉得这次金融危机的问题跟以往的经济危机还是有些区别。具体来说就是产能过
剩并没有成为太大的问题，而且现在的美国企业比危机以前的效率更加提高了，新技术
的采用使得生产率更高，很多我关注的公司都在利用过去这两年对他们的系统和经营模
式进行改进，对他们来说这两年并没有失落。从某种意义上来说高居不下的失业率也是
一个证据，因为企业需要的蓝领工人更少了。
这也是为什么现在科技，能源，工业制造等等形式一片大好的原因，因为他们面对的主
要是全球市场，尤其是新兴市场。而医疗，通信等等行业差强人意表现则跟美国本土的
相对疲软有关，It is a segmented recovery。不过我觉得现在的这种现象也是暂时的
，最终这几个领域也会跟上来。
日本的情况跟美国还是有些不同，美国的宏观经济和综合国力的基本面并没有什么大的
问题。况且日本搞到现在这步跟当初对抗通缩乏力是有关的，不能说Fed QE的时候骂人
家搞通涨，过后又去跟日本比，对吧？
Lost decade是个用来勾起大家sentiment的概念，具体投资还是得向前看。
【在 s***s 的大作中提到】
: 日本股市连着两个LOSTDECADE
: 不照样有台湾人，中国大陆人移民到日本？
: 你逻辑有问题
:
: tech
讨论问题么，没有一定谁对谁错 ：-）
还有我觉得这次金融危机的问题跟以往的经济危机还是有些区别。具体来说就是产能过
剩并没有成为太大的问题，而且现在的美国企业比危机以前的效率更加提高了，新技术
的采用使得生产率更高，很多我关注的公司都在利用过去这两年对他们的系统和经营模
式进行改进，对他们来说这两年并没有失落。从某种意义上来说高居不下的失业率也是
一个证据，因为企业需要的蓝领工人更少了。
这也是为什么现在科技，能源，工业制造等等形式一片大好的原因，因为他们面对的主
要是全球市场，尤其是新兴市场。而医疗，通信等等行业差强人意表现则跟美国本土的
相对疲软有关，It is a segmented recovery。不过我觉得现在的这种现象也是暂时的
，最终这几个领域也会跟上来。
日本的情况跟美国还是有些不同，美国的宏观经济和综合国力的基本面并没有什么大的
问题。况且日本搞到现在这步跟当初对抗通缩乏力是有关的，不能说Fed QE的时候骂人
家搞通涨，过后又去跟日本比，对吧？
Lost decade是个用来勾起大家sentiment的概念，具体投资还是得向前看。
【在 s***s 的大作中提到】
: 日本股市连着两个LOSTDECADE
: 不照样有台湾人，中国大陆人移民到日本？
: 你逻辑有问题
:
: tech
l*u
35 楼
怎么说呢？我还是比较信服老巴说的be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy
when others are fearful
要我看大家现在还是fearful的多。。。所以至少今年还不会太坏。
401K么，investment horizon对各位来说都至少还有二三十年吧，hold cash或者gold
的同学你们真的相信二三十年之后equity还不如cash么？
have
safety
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Right. The chart is here:
: http://www.multpl.com/
: There are only three times that the PE10 was higher:
: 1. 1929
: 2. Dotcom bubble
: 3. 2004-2006 rally triggered by "Greenspan Put" that turns out to be
: unsustainable.
: I won't bet that "Bernanke Put" would eventually fare any better. But I have
: yet to see major tipping point of this bubble. Investors that prefer safety
: should have already exited the market.
when others are fearful
要我看大家现在还是fearful的多。。。所以至少今年还不会太坏。
401K么，investment horizon对各位来说都至少还有二三十年吧，hold cash或者gold
的同学你们真的相信二三十年之后equity还不如cash么？
have
safety
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Right. The chart is here:
: http://www.multpl.com/
: There are only three times that the PE10 was higher:
: 1. 1929
: 2. Dotcom bubble
: 3. 2004-2006 rally triggered by "Greenspan Put" that turns out to be
: unsustainable.
: I won't bet that "Bernanke Put" would eventually fare any better. But I have
: yet to see major tipping point of this bubble. Investors that prefer safety
: should have already exited the market.
g*g
36 楼
The huge debt and deficit cannot get resolved any time soon.
It's innevitable USD gets weaker against BRIC and commodity country
like Canada and Australia.
For those sectors that have great international revenue, the revenue
gets bigger for exchange rate alone. And you can't beat tech and
energy for international exposure.
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 我只是说既然stuck在美国了，就还是得有点信心不是？好事儿咋能都让咱摊上了呢？
: 讨论问题么，没有一定谁对谁错 ：-）
: 还有我觉得这次金融危机的问题跟以往的经济危机还是有些区别。具体来说就是产能过
: 剩并没有成为太大的问题，而且现在的美国企业比危机以前的效率更加提高了，新技术
: 的采用使得生产率更高，很多我关注的公司都在利用过去这两年对他们的系统和经营模
: 式进行改进，对他们来说这两年并没有失落。从某种意义上来说高居不下的失业率也是
: 一个证据，因为企业需要的蓝领工人更少了。
: 这也是为什么现在科技，能源，工业制造等等形式一片大好的原因，因为他们面对的主
: 要是全球市场，尤其是新兴市场。而医疗，通信等等行业差强人意表现则跟美国本土的
: 相对疲软有关，It is a segmented recovery。不过我觉得现在的这种现象也是暂时的
It's innevitable USD gets weaker against BRIC and commodity country
like Canada and Australia.
For those sectors that have great international revenue, the revenue
gets bigger for exchange rate alone. And you can't beat tech and
energy for international exposure.
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: 我只是说既然stuck在美国了，就还是得有点信心不是？好事儿咋能都让咱摊上了呢？
: 讨论问题么，没有一定谁对谁错 ：-）
: 还有我觉得这次金融危机的问题跟以往的经济危机还是有些区别。具体来说就是产能过
: 剩并没有成为太大的问题，而且现在的美国企业比危机以前的效率更加提高了，新技术
: 的采用使得生产率更高，很多我关注的公司都在利用过去这两年对他们的系统和经营模
: 式进行改进，对他们来说这两年并没有失落。从某种意义上来说高居不下的失业率也是
: 一个证据，因为企业需要的蓝领工人更少了。
: 这也是为什么现在科技，能源，工业制造等等形式一片大好的原因，因为他们面对的主
: 要是全球市场，尤其是新兴市场。而医疗，通信等等行业差强人意表现则跟美国本土的
: 相对疲软有关，It is a segmented recovery。不过我觉得现在的这种现象也是暂时的
l*u
37 楼
Everything you said is reasonable.我只是不太用sector funds，对于这两个sector
的个股选择，我也没什么信心。
我们都没有办法预测未来，我可能会用portofolio的一小部分去bet on something，但
是对于长期整体投资来讲，我还是相信自己的consistency是最重要的。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: The huge debt and deficit cannot get resolved any time soon.
: It's innevitable USD gets weaker against BRIC and commodity country
: like Canada and Australia.
: For those sectors that have great international revenue, the revenue
: gets bigger for exchange rate alone. And you can't beat tech and
: energy for international exposure.
的个股选择，我也没什么信心。
我们都没有办法预测未来，我可能会用portofolio的一小部分去bet on something，但
是对于长期整体投资来讲，我还是相信自己的consistency是最重要的。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: The huge debt and deficit cannot get resolved any time soon.
: It's innevitable USD gets weaker against BRIC and commodity country
: like Canada and Australia.
: For those sectors that have great international revenue, the revenue
: gets bigger for exchange rate alone. And you can't beat tech and
: energy for international exposure.
p*r
38 楼
The goal of PE10 is to eliminate the short cycles point of the view. The
business cycle is an undeniable attribute of the capitalism (although some
in dotcom bubble thought it could be eliminated). And you don't want to buy
at the peak of the profit cycles which make your unrealistic forward PE
looks good.
If you are an indexer and don't believe in market timing, then I don't see
any problem with your approach. But otherwise, PE10 can tell you when the
market is ahead itself and when you are likely getting negative inflation-
adjusted returns in the next few years. Paying no attention to this is
intellectual laziness. (I am still heavily invested in the equity market at
the moment, but I believe the cycle might end soon.)
It's not that cash is an investment, but having cash is king when the stock
market unavoidably went into the next bear market cycle.
I don't believe the moment has arrived yet, but the risks is out there and
the recovery is a joke. If you shift the private debt into the public debt,
and thus the private sector recovers a bit (and at the same time public
sector doesn't shrink very quickly because of the deficit), and you call
that recovery? The private sector always have cycles and the next time it
happens, the public sector will be in so much debt that we are in much worse
situation than before. FED is only buying time to the crisis but unless
something terribly good happens within the next year, we are facing a much
harsher reality.
And be brave when others are fearful? Are you kidding me? You call this
market fearful? Have you even looked at the valuation of most small-cap
risky companies? Not only there is no margin of safety at all, it is
downright ridiculous. That's why most famous value investors (including
Buffett), has decreased their equity market exposure recently. A few people
on this bbs do not represent the market. The Wallstreet is very high right
now because they are using cheap money from FED to make a quick profit,
which would add to their annual bonus.
在 littlesu (小苏夫妇的共用ID) 的大作中提到: 】
saw
You
business cycle is an undeniable attribute of the capitalism (although some
in dotcom bubble thought it could be eliminated). And you don't want to buy
at the peak of the profit cycles which make your unrealistic forward PE
looks good.
If you are an indexer and don't believe in market timing, then I don't see
any problem with your approach. But otherwise, PE10 can tell you when the
market is ahead itself and when you are likely getting negative inflation-
adjusted returns in the next few years. Paying no attention to this is
intellectual laziness. (I am still heavily invested in the equity market at
the moment, but I believe the cycle might end soon.)
It's not that cash is an investment, but having cash is king when the stock
market unavoidably went into the next bear market cycle.
I don't believe the moment has arrived yet, but the risks is out there and
the recovery is a joke. If you shift the private debt into the public debt,
and thus the private sector recovers a bit (and at the same time public
sector doesn't shrink very quickly because of the deficit), and you call
that recovery? The private sector always have cycles and the next time it
happens, the public sector will be in so much debt that we are in much worse
situation than before. FED is only buying time to the crisis but unless
something terribly good happens within the next year, we are facing a much
harsher reality.
And be brave when others are fearful? Are you kidding me? You call this
market fearful? Have you even looked at the valuation of most small-cap
risky companies? Not only there is no margin of safety at all, it is
downright ridiculous. That's why most famous value investors (including
Buffett), has decreased their equity market exposure recently. A few people
on this bbs do not represent the market. The Wallstreet is very high right
now because they are using cheap money from FED to make a quick profit,
which would add to their annual bonus.
在 littlesu (小苏夫妇的共用ID) 的大作中提到: 】
saw
You
l*u
39 楼
嗯，你的大多数观点都非常insightful，不过老大虽然你的英文很好，但是看英文的东
西还是相对费劲啊，那么根据PE10的方法（网页我已经收藏），多少P/E就比较危险了
呢？
我注意到了现在这次所谓junk rally的问题，我的equity投资除了index fund也是以投
资trailing P/E在15左右的blue chip dividend payer为主，之所以这样也是因为对于
节节攀升的market不放心，有没有其他更好的选择。我不太相信黄金和cash能都帮我，
相比之下非要选我可能会选reit。
你说的shift debt from private sector to public sector的问题我也读到过，我同
意这个观点，但总觉得有些悲观了。事实上这次的危机中，private sector的大公司并
没有受到太大冲击，相反它们还有了不同程度的获益，比如生产效率，比如兼并等等。
受害的主要是小公司由于tight credit和萎缩的需求所导致的困境。从这个角度看
small cap rally也不算非常不合理，毕竟它们跌得也最惨，不过最近Russel2000过800
，我觉得是个危险信号，因为small cap可能经get way ahead of themselves了。至
于联储的过度宽松的货币政策，如果能帮助小企业recover也算合理，当然boost了金融
市场是一个从长远来看可能的副作用。问题的关键是就业率和工资能不能上来，这我相
信也是未来几个月很多人关注的焦点。从长期看，则是联邦的债务和赤字问题。不过这
个问题牵扯就太广了，不是我这种平头小老百姓能搞清楚的。
总的来说，我对近期的看法还是肯定的，长期则要看美国会不会又回到欠债吹泡沫的老
路上去，也许真正的经济复苏还要过几年，不过我不觉得现在这个点已经差到要stay
out of market的地步，即便是几十年后往回看。
呵呵，话说回来真要是那么差了，就大家一起完蛋呗，还能咋的？咱没准还能跑回中国
去。。。
buy
at
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: The goal of PE10 is to eliminate the short cycles point of the view. The
: business cycle is an undeniable attribute of the capitalism (although some
: in dotcom bubble thought it could be eliminated). And you don't want to buy
: at the peak of the profit cycles which make your unrealistic forward PE
: looks good.
: If you are an indexer and don't believe in market timing, then I don't see
: any problem with your approach. But otherwise, PE10 can tell you when the
: market is ahead itself and when you are likely getting negative inflation-
: adjusted returns in the next few years. Paying no attention to this is
: intellectual laziness. (I am still heavily invested in the equity market at
西还是相对费劲啊，那么根据PE10的方法（网页我已经收藏），多少P/E就比较危险了
呢？
我注意到了现在这次所谓junk rally的问题，我的equity投资除了index fund也是以投
资trailing P/E在15左右的blue chip dividend payer为主，之所以这样也是因为对于
节节攀升的market不放心，有没有其他更好的选择。我不太相信黄金和cash能都帮我，
相比之下非要选我可能会选reit。
你说的shift debt from private sector to public sector的问题我也读到过，我同
意这个观点，但总觉得有些悲观了。事实上这次的危机中，private sector的大公司并
没有受到太大冲击，相反它们还有了不同程度的获益，比如生产效率，比如兼并等等。
受害的主要是小公司由于tight credit和萎缩的需求所导致的困境。从这个角度看
small cap rally也不算非常不合理，毕竟它们跌得也最惨，不过最近Russel2000过800
，我觉得是个危险信号，因为small cap可能经get way ahead of themselves了。至
于联储的过度宽松的货币政策，如果能帮助小企业recover也算合理，当然boost了金融
市场是一个从长远来看可能的副作用。问题的关键是就业率和工资能不能上来，这我相
信也是未来几个月很多人关注的焦点。从长期看，则是联邦的债务和赤字问题。不过这
个问题牵扯就太广了，不是我这种平头小老百姓能搞清楚的。
总的来说，我对近期的看法还是肯定的，长期则要看美国会不会又回到欠债吹泡沫的老
路上去，也许真正的经济复苏还要过几年，不过我不觉得现在这个点已经差到要stay
out of market的地步，即便是几十年后往回看。
呵呵，话说回来真要是那么差了，就大家一起完蛋呗，还能咋的？咱没准还能跑回中国
去。。。
buy
at
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: The goal of PE10 is to eliminate the short cycles point of the view. The
: business cycle is an undeniable attribute of the capitalism (although some
: in dotcom bubble thought it could be eliminated). And you don't want to buy
: at the peak of the profit cycles which make your unrealistic forward PE
: looks good.
: If you are an indexer and don't believe in market timing, then I don't see
: any problem with your approach. But otherwise, PE10 can tell you when the
: market is ahead itself and when you are likely getting negative inflation-
: adjusted returns in the next few years. Paying no attention to this is
: intellectual laziness. (I am still heavily invested in the equity market at
l*u
40 楼
另外，我觉得用PE10这种数据还是要参考比如TSY10s的yield，低利率的环境下P/E高一
些也是相对合理的。毕竟如果20的P/E算5%的yield的话，TSY在2%和10%实际上的意义差
得多了。
只是这个低利率能维持多长时间是关键，Bernanke老说Fed加息也就15分钟的事儿，这
里面也有打肿脸充胖子的成分啊。。。
buy
at
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: The goal of PE10 is to eliminate the short cycles point of the view. The
: business cycle is an undeniable attribute of the capitalism (although some
: in dotcom bubble thought it could be eliminated). And you don't want to buy
: at the peak of the profit cycles which make your unrealistic forward PE
: looks good.
: If you are an indexer and don't believe in market timing, then I don't see
: any problem with your approach. But otherwise, PE10 can tell you when the
: market is ahead itself and when you are likely getting negative inflation-
: adjusted returns in the next few years. Paying no attention to this is
: intellectual laziness. (I am still heavily invested in the equity market at
些也是相对合理的。毕竟如果20的P/E算5%的yield的话，TSY在2%和10%实际上的意义差
得多了。
只是这个低利率能维持多长时间是关键，Bernanke老说Fed加息也就15分钟的事儿，这
里面也有打肿脸充胖子的成分啊。。。
buy
at
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: The goal of PE10 is to eliminate the short cycles point of the view. The
: business cycle is an undeniable attribute of the capitalism (although some
: in dotcom bubble thought it could be eliminated). And you don't want to buy
: at the peak of the profit cycles which make your unrealistic forward PE
: looks good.
: If you are an indexer and don't believe in market timing, then I don't see
: any problem with your approach. But otherwise, PE10 can tell you when the
: market is ahead itself and when you are likely getting negative inflation-
: adjusted returns in the next few years. Paying no attention to this is
: intellectual laziness. (I am still heavily invested in the equity market at
S*C
41 楼
The patient is recovering and he is supported by a lot of expensive medicine. When the drugs taper off, we will know if the patient can run by himself or will be back to the emergency room.
And no I do not think you should use the low interest rate effect to justify the valuation; rather it makes the situation even more dangerous...The interest rate will revert to the mean...
One thing that could justify a little the current valuation is the cash pile that S&P 500 companies hold are all time high and growing.
saw
You
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: Isn't it true that interest rate should be factored in? BTW, the data I saw
: for S&P500 P/E is 15, at least from a forward PE stand point of view... You
: got to admit that the overall US ecomonic is recovering. There's so many
: data supporting this.
: The basic question that bothers me a lot is that why commodity, gold and
: cash are investments...
:
: have
: safety
And no I do not think you should use the low interest rate effect to justify the valuation; rather it makes the situation even more dangerous...The interest rate will revert to the mean...
One thing that could justify a little the current valuation is the cash pile that S&P 500 companies hold are all time high and growing.
saw
You
【在 l******u 的大作中提到】
: Isn't it true that interest rate should be factored in? BTW, the data I saw
: for S&P500 P/E is 15, at least from a forward PE stand point of view... You
: got to admit that the overall US ecomonic is recovering. There's so many
: data supporting this.
: The basic question that bothers me a lot is that why commodity, gold and
: cash are investments...
:
: have
: safety
g*g
42 楼
stock
,
Of course this should work, USD will get weaker, and we get inflation.
But the stock market can sustain in the value of USD. That's why cash
is trash in inflation.
worse
people
,
Of course this should work, USD will get weaker, and we get inflation.
But the stock market can sustain in the value of USD. That's why cash
is trash in inflation.
worse
people
S*C
43 楼
Well when/if USD weakened to such a point that the oil shoot up to all-time
high, the market will collapse.
high, the market will collapse.
g*g
44 楼
US government have their army in mid east for a reason.
When USD weakens, OPEC, China and Japan, all share some
loss. US don't get all the hit.
time
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Well when/if USD weakened to such a point that the oil shoot up to all-time
: high, the market will collapse.
When USD weakens, OPEC, China and Japan, all share some
loss. US don't get all the hit.
time
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Well when/if USD weakened to such a point that the oil shoot up to all-time
: high, the market will collapse.
l*u
45 楼
看来我还是太天真啊 ：-）
那大家说说咋办吧？
那大家说说咋办吧？
f*e
46 楼
10% will be good timing play :)
f*d
47 楼
问个更小白的问题reit是什么，google一下出来 Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total
Return Index，是不是这个？但是reit的ETF又是什么？
Return Index，是不是这个？但是reit的ETF又是什么？
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