Corrections! The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期, 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制 so the analysis change to: 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75% to china 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china. still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor limit for any country after 2014. We can't only look at the visa number we can rob from ROW, we should be prepared for the visa number indian can take from us. _________________________ 作为旁观者,我读了hr3012. 看起来hr3012废除了EB的country limit,只是开始几年 过渡期给ROW一些保底. 同时在过渡期,设定了任何国家不能拿>70%的限制 (basically India since it has earlier PD) 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 70% india, leaves at most 15% to china 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 70% india, leaves at most 20% to china 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 70% india, leaves at most 20% to china. Note, the 70% mentioned in the allocation of unreserved visa number is "70% of the total visa number made available in 203(b)" Also, what china got will be shared with ROW. However, if it is based on PD , I suppose we will get majority of the quota. I don't think we can get any number from india's 70% since it will be depleted to solve the massive EB3I. So far, it is good news to EB2C&EB3C. However, since all of those are covered in "the transition rule for EB immigrants", after 2014, ROW will not get any reserved visa number and there are no 70% limit for any single country, unless there are new amendement, I saw the disaster for EB3C and EB3ROW. EB2ROW will be hurt as well. EB2C was 捆绑 with EB2I already, so unless EB2I number grow like EB3I (which is possible), there is less concern for EB2C. reference: HR3012: http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/112hr3012.pdf INS ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS: http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-2 1083.html#0-0-0-1345
EB2C demand is constantly above 3K even in bad ecomony. And there are more students than ever coming into US every year. EB2C will remain the 2nd largest group in EB2 category in foreseeable future and no way below 7%.
basically % PD any
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】 : Corrections! : The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期, : 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制 : so the analysis change to: : 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75% : to china : 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to : china : 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china. : still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : EB2C demand is constantly above 3K even in bad ecomony. : And there are more students than ever coming into US : every year. EB2C will remain the 2nd largest group in : EB2 category in foreseeable future and no way below 7%. : : basically : % : PD : any
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】 : Corrections! : The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期, : 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制 : so the analysis change to: : 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75% : to china : 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to : china : 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china. : still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
请问哪个条款规定了"Leaves at most 15% to china"? 请说说,谢谢。我怎么觉得85% 都给India,因为它的PD老。
basically % PD any
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】 : Corrections! : The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期, : 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制 : so the analysis change to: : 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75% : to china : 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to : china : 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china. : still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
s*c
16 楼
15% refers to total visa number for ROW. The allocation in each category is still based on 203b which is unchanged.
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】 : 15% refers to total visa number for ROW. The allocation in each category is : still based on 203b which is unchanged.
s*c
19 楼
Maybe. Remember, it is claimed that it will take 70 years to absorb all EB3I currently. I am sure EB3I vastly outnumber EB3C. I hope this imbalance does not occur on EB2 (hopefully EB2C can outnumber EB2I). Anyway, in extreme circumstances, EB3C will be even worse under the new rule than before.
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】 : Maybe. : Remember, it is claimed that it will take 70 years to absorb all EB3I : currently. I am sure EB3I vastly outnumber EB3C. I hope this imbalance : does not occur on EB2 (hopefully EB2C can outnumber EB2I). Anyway, in : extreme circumstances, EB3C will be even worse under the new rule than : before.
s*c
21 楼
Right, that is what I believe. However, it will not happen after 3 years, maybe 6-7 years or more when the EB23ROW and EB3C's problem become obvious. (say, it take 70 years for other EB3 to get green card). But I don't know if they have enough voice to have new amendment.
Sorry, I didn't see the amendment changed the 70% of the total EB visa number to 85% of the un-reserved. However, the entire amendment applies to the transitional period only.
【在 n****t 的大作中提到】 : 请问哪个条款规定了"Leaves at most 15% to china"? 请说说,谢谢。我怎么觉得85% : 都给India,因为它的PD老。 : : basically : % : PD : any
r*x
24 楼
Can remember the exact numbers of approved EB green card, but are we sure that China is "one of the two states with the largest numbers of natives obtaining lawful permanent resident status during fiscal year 2010 under such section 203(b)"? When determining the two largest states, it's based on number of EB (section 203 (b)) green card approved in 2010, FB or other category not included, right?
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】 : 棒子很有赶超的希望!
s*c
25 楼
Sorry, I didn't read the amendment. The amendment http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt3%20-%20PASSED%20by%20voice.pdf now says, during the transitional period of 2012, 2013, and 2014, no single country can get more than 85% of the un-reserved visa number. So for 2012, 2013, 2014 15%, 10%, 10% for ROW 72%, 76.5%, 76.5% at most for either india or China, we believe it will belong to india. This leaves: 13%, 13.5%, 13.5% for China.
85%
【在 n****t 的大作中提到】 : 请问哪个条款规定了"Leaves at most 15% to china"? 请说说,谢谢。我怎么觉得85% : 都给India,因为它的PD老。 : : basically : % : PD : any
g*g
26 楼
That's correct, though for EB2, I think EB2C : EB2I is higher than that ratio. Essentially, EB2C/I will be tied all along like now and eating EB2 ROW's quota.
single
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】 : Sorry, I didn't read the amendment. : The amendment http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt3%20-%20PASSED%20by%20voice.pdf : now says, during the transitional period of 2012, 2013, and 2014, no single : country can get more than 85% of the un-reserved visa number. : So for 2012, 2013, 2014 : 15%, 10%, 10% for ROW : 72%, 76.5%, 76.5% at most for either india or China, we believe it will : belong to india. : This leaves: : 13%, 13.5%, 13.5% for China.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】 : EB2C demand is constantly above 3K even in bad ecomony. : And there are more students than ever coming into US : every year. EB2C will remain the 2nd largest group in : EB2 category in foreseeable future and no way below 7%. : : basically : % : PD : any