avatar
w*e
1
【 以下文字转载自 Travel 讨论区 】
发信人: windwhere (风去无影), 信区: Travel
标 题: 去日本开会签证的问题
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 25 15:31:23 2011, 美东)
联系了一个月,conference committee终于寄来了package,然后告诉我说我不需要
Letter of Guarantee(身元保証書),因为invitor是professor。刚刚打电话给底特
律大使馆,又说letter of guaranttee是必需的。有经验的给个建议,到底谁说得对啊
?我好找说错的那边argue。谢谢了
avatar
y*w
2
最近公司招了一个a3 contractor,和我一起跟一个老大干活。这两天这小子把我惹个
半毛。先是
在这里来问问题乱动东西,发现我柜子里有些书开始情不自禁的乱翻,每次来都翻,警
告了一次
老实点了--最不爽乱翻我东西了尤其还是放柜子里的;
昨天这家伙测试有个问题一直没找到原因,今天我看了看搞定了这小子跑过来看看也就
知道怎么
回事儿了,结果中饭前碰巧听到人家在向老大汇报,“俺发现并解决了这个xx问题”。
avatar
r*n
3
In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.
I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.
I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she may have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.
This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."
In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990!
NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!
avatar
r*t
4
原因很多,
肚皮最近受到冷落,可是我一直在耐心的等待。
我在四月依拉冲375的时候烧过一把,可是一直没有吃到真正的肥肉。
从六月初开始,这厮开始下冲了,昨天不过是强反弹而已。
原因就是大盘我昨天已经估计今天一定会涨,你们的C帅也专门讲了,PSP把put都卖了
,从DJI的图形大家都很容易判断出来。好既然明天要大涨,买什么,买跌过头的好东
东啊。
什么是东东好?大家都知道,肚皮比sohu好的太多了。
肚皮一路冲将下来,我正好来个接飞刀,因为这是大多数TAer都不会做的。
要反其大多数而行。才能赚钱,跟风只能喝汤,甚至连汤都没有喝。
所以才有昨天的接住肚皮的飞刀,今天果然大盘深深的谈起,当然,肚皮这个好东东的
强力反弹也就在我意料之中。
avatar
D*t
6
【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
发信人: sunnyday (艳阳天), 信区: Joke
标 题: Re: 孙悟空的父母是谁?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 25 17:29:20 2010, 美东)
你忽略了一个事实,XYY的智力只是比他们的父母低而已。
对于一般人生下的XYY,因为父母就是一般人,所以生下的XYY的智力会比一般人
低一些。另外,要注意的是,只是低一些而已,并不是白痴弱智。
但是观音是个非常聪明的人,唐僧也非常的有才华(虽然情商不一定高),
所以孙悟空作为他们生下的孩子,就算是XYY,智力也不会很低。
孙悟空是XYY这个猜想,也非常完美的解释了一个事实,那就是为什么以
唐僧和观音都是才华横溢而且脾气很好的人,生下的孙悟空虽然勉强算的上
有些小聪明,却没有什么文采,而且脾气还暴躁的很。
另外一个人的回帖里提到孙悟空会不会是不育的三倍体?这个问题比较复杂,
关键取决于观音变成女性时候的染色体变化具体过程,
另外一个道友已经精确的指出了,观音是额外作了一个XX染色体的拷贝。
但是对于常染色体,观音是怎么处理的呢?假如她当时是不管三七二十一,
avatar
j*0
7
Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems
Volume 23, Issue 1, April 1994, Pages 235-245
avatar
N*m
8
貌似你真的不需要Letter of Guarantee.你告诉使馆工作人员你是去开会吗?
http://www.detroit.us.emb-japan.go.jp/pdf/en/tv/tempvisitor.pdf
If you will attend an academic conference:
A copy of the letter of invitation to the conference or materials listing
you as a presenter.

【在 w*******e 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Travel 讨论区 】
: 发信人: windwhere (风去无影), 信区: Travel
: 标 题: 去日本开会签证的问题
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 25 15:31:23 2011, 美东)
: 联系了一个月,conference committee终于寄来了package,然后告诉我说我不需要
: Letter of Guarantee(身元保証書),因为invitor是professor。刚刚打电话给底特
: 律大使馆,又说letter of guaranttee是必需的。有经验的给个建议,到底谁说得对啊
: ?我好找说错的那边argue。谢谢了

avatar
f*e
9
无意中跟老大说是你自己搞定的
很烦那种抢功劳的,你帮他搞定的,他应该感激你才对,结果还在背后抢你功劳
avatar
w*g
10
呵呵,火箭饭发新主题帖的时候,就是大家欢庆的时候。

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
D*t
12
Zen Sunnyday, the Xiyologist?
avatar
w*e
13
忘了说了,我是f1,日本对中国f1j1有专门的要求,你给的这个链接好像不适用。不过
还是谢谢你:)

【在 N*******m 的大作中提到】
: 貌似你真的不需要Letter of Guarantee.你告诉使馆工作人员你是去开会吗?
: http://www.detroit.us.emb-japan.go.jp/pdf/en/tv/tempvisitor.pdf
: If you will attend an academic conference:
: A copy of the letter of invitation to the conference or materials listing
: you as a presenter.

avatar
w*w
14
发EMAIL给老板,CC给他,说明白是你做的,让他解释清楚。这种人就赶快想办法开掉
,不用多想的。

【在 y****w 的大作中提到】
: 最近公司招了一个a3 contractor,和我一起跟一个老大干活。这两天这小子把我惹个
: 半毛。先是
: 在这里来问问题乱动东西,发现我柜子里有些书开始情不自禁的乱翻,每次来都翻,警
: 告了一次
: 老实点了--最不爽乱翻我东西了尤其还是放柜子里的;
: 昨天这家伙测试有个问题一直没找到原因,今天我看了看搞定了这小子跑过来看看也就
: 知道怎么
: 回事儿了,结果中饭前碰巧听到人家在向老大汇报,“俺发现并解决了这个xx问题”。

avatar
s*7
15
保佑保佑能进入到09年阿。。。
avatar
a*n
17
悟空是香蕉

【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: Zen Sunnyday, the Xiyologist?
avatar
N*m
18
看来是日本那个教授说对了。看
http://www.detroit.us.emb-japan.go.jp/pdf/en/tv/Chinese_gakusei
第4页,前提是invitor是那个教授。如果是organization的的话,可能还是要
guarentee letter.
我要是你,直接去领事馆签,如果有问题,再向日方要材料好了。

【在 w*******e 的大作中提到】
: 忘了说了,我是f1,日本对中国f1j1有专门的要求,你给的这个链接好像不适用。不过
: 还是谢谢你:)

avatar
M*y
19
这么公开抢功,容易显得没有度量。得罪人,还有可能让老板看不起。可以和老板单独
聊聊。
找contractor,就是要把额外的活干了,老板可能不太在意是不是他自己解决的问题。
下次,把你的leadership做在明处,就能让大家都觉得你本事。

【在 w**w 的大作中提到】
: 发EMAIL给老板,CC给他,说明白是你做的,让他解释清楚。这种人就赶快想办法开掉
: ,不用多想的。

avatar
h*8
20
mark, 赞
avatar
n*k
22
Ding Zen Sunnyday:))

【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: Zen Sunnyday, the Xiyologist?
avatar
w*e
23
太高级了!多谢多谢!!

【在 N*******m 的大作中提到】
: 看来是日本那个教授说对了。看
: http://www.detroit.us.emb-japan.go.jp/pdf/en/tv/Chinese_gakusei
: 第4页,前提是invitor是那个教授。如果是organization的的话,可能还是要
: guarentee letter.
: 我要是你,直接去领事馆签,如果有问题,再向日方要材料好了。

avatar
w*w
24
和CONTRACTOR有啥抢的??还要等人家转正了不成?啥玩意啊,还怕得罪人?

【在 M*********y 的大作中提到】
: 这么公开抢功,容易显得没有度量。得罪人,还有可能让老板看不起。可以和老板单独
: 聊聊。
: 找contractor,就是要把额外的活干了,老板可能不太在意是不是他自己解决的问题。
: 下次,把你的leadership做在明处,就能让大家都觉得你本事。

avatar
g*g
25
8月不会,九月大概到08年三月底,既不保守,又不浪费。比较符合O大傻的风格。
幻想C是不现实的, 失望是不可避免的。
avatar
w*y
27
sunnyday太油菜了
大圣教的确是真理

【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
: 发信人: sunnyday (艳阳天), 信区: Joke
: 标 题: Re: 孙悟空的父母是谁?
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 25 17:29:20 2010, 美东)
: 你忽略了一个事实,XYY的智力只是比他们的父母低而已。
: 对于一般人生下的XYY,因为父母就是一般人,所以生下的XYY的智力会比一般人
: 低一些。另外,要注意的是,只是低一些而已,并不是白痴弱智。
: 但是观音是个非常聪明的人,唐僧也非常的有才华(虽然情商不一定高),
: 所以孙悟空作为他们生下的孩子,就算是XYY,智力也不会很低。
: 孙悟空是XYY这个猜想,也非常完美的解释了一个事实,那就是为什么以

avatar
Q*M
28
发表扬信给A3,同时CC给BOSS。
主题:YOU DID A GREAT JOB!
内容大意:你非常四吗特,明白了我给你讲的要点,并且有效地实现了它们。
avatar
l*o
29
indeed good news.
avatar
i*t
30
发包子吧
avatar
a*o
31
学妹太有才了
avatar
y*w
32
good point~~~


【在 Q**M 的大作中提到】
: 发表扬信给A3,同时CC给BOSS。
: 主题:YOU DID A GREAT JOB!
: 内容大意:你非常四吗特,明白了我给你讲的要点,并且有效地实现了它们。

avatar
y*n
33
赞火箭的专研态度。
请教一下,NVC和USCIS是一个怎么样的合作关系?一个是国务院下专管visa的,一个是
homeland security下专管移民的,他们是怎么互相协作的?老实说就一个星期前,我
还不知道有NVC这么个机构,以为file了140后,都归CIS管了。
谢谢。

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
O*e
34
sunnyday不把这么好的帖子发在生物版,真是让俺太伤心了。。。。

【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
: 发信人: sunnyday (艳阳天), 信区: Joke
: 标 题: Re: 孙悟空的父母是谁?
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 25 17:29:20 2010, 美东)
: 你忽略了一个事实,XYY的智力只是比他们的父母低而已。
: 对于一般人生下的XYY,因为父母就是一般人,所以生下的XYY的智力会比一般人
: 低一些。另外,要注意的是,只是低一些而已,并不是白痴弱智。
: 但是观音是个非常聪明的人,唐僧也非常的有才华(虽然情商不一定高),
: 所以孙悟空作为他们生下的孩子,就算是XYY,智力也不会很低。
: 孙悟空是XYY这个猜想,也非常完美的解释了一个事实,那就是为什么以

avatar
c*b
35
那个问题到底归谁做啊? 归他做的你为什么要给他做啊?

【在 y****w 的大作中提到】
: 最近公司招了一个a3 contractor,和我一起跟一个老大干活。这两天这小子把我惹个
: 半毛。先是
: 在这里来问问题乱动东西,发现我柜子里有些书开始情不自禁的乱翻,每次来都翻,警
: 告了一次
: 老实点了--最不爽乱翻我东西了尤其还是放柜子里的;
: 昨天这家伙测试有个问题一直没找到原因,今天我看了看搞定了这小子跑过来看看也就
: 知道怎么
: 回事儿了,结果中饭前碰巧听到人家在向老大汇报,“俺发现并解决了这个xx问题”。

avatar
c*l
36
希望下个月的通知发到09年的,哈哈.
avatar
s*y
37
晕,随手在笑话版写的,大家看得开心就好了

【在 O******e 的大作中提到】
: sunnyday不把这么好的帖子发在生物版,真是让俺太伤心了。。。。
avatar
r*n
38
NVC is directly under DOS. It's located in NH. NVC is one part of DOS. All
the US embassy and consular events are also under DOS. NVC is handling
embassy and consular events, so it is directly under DOS. Bascially Mr.O's
office has a closer relationship to NVC than USCIS.
USCIS is not under DOS. It's more like an independent organization. Green cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 赞火箭的专研态度。
: 请教一下,NVC和USCIS是一个怎么样的合作关系?一个是国务院下专管visa的,一个是
: homeland security下专管移民的,他们是怎么互相协作的?老实说就一个星期前,我
: 还不知道有NVC这么个机构,以为file了140后,都归CIS管了。
: 谢谢。
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
S*i
39
这回彻底服了Sunnyday了。
avatar
A*g
40
hope it comes true, next two months will be longest

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
O*e
41
很有智慧的幽默。非常不错。

【在 s******y 的大作中提到】
: 晕,随手在笑话版写的,大家看得开心就好了
avatar
s*m
42
为什么不是08年中?

【在 g**********g 的大作中提到】
: 8月不会,九月大概到08年三月底,既不保守,又不浪费。比较符合O大傻的风格。
: 幻想C是不现实的, 失望是不可避免的。

avatar
t*p
43
倒,怎么会有人深挖一个虚无的东西?而且这么油菜?

【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: Zen Sunnyday, the Xiyologist?
avatar
r*n
44
An Indian guy got fee notice with PD of June 2008, but that's the only case
we heard so far. I will keep monitoring the situation and keep you posted.

【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】
: 为什么不是08年中?
avatar
s*y
45
Thanks :)

【在 O******e 的大作中提到】
: 很有智慧的幽默。非常不错。
avatar
s*m
46
哈哈, thanks Man

case

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: An Indian guy got fee notice with PD of June 2008, but that's the only case
: we heard so far. I will keep monitoring the situation and keep you posted.

avatar
h*0
47
怎么都没想到,学生物,会有这么才华横溢的人。
avatar
y*n
48
谢谢,查了一下,原来Mr.O's office也是DOS下的一个机构。

cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: NVC is directly under DOS. It's located in NH. NVC is one part of DOS. All
: the US embassy and consular events are also under DOS. NVC is handling
: embassy and consular events, so it is directly under DOS. Bascially Mr.O's
: office has a closer relationship to NVC than USCIS.
: USCIS is not under DOS. It's more like an independent organization. Green cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

avatar
l*n
49
你太牛了!

【在 s******y 的大作中提到】
: 晕,随手在笑话版写的,大家看得开心就好了
avatar
e*7
50
如果pd下个月到8/2007,我给你包子

notice
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
a*e
51
我们家小师妹就是有才
avatar
r*n
52
I think NVC gets the latest information from Mr.O's office.
I bet anything that Mr.O's office provided a list of possible PD dates to
NVC in April. Otherwise NVC wouldn't send out these notices starting from
April.
If we think about the series of events, we would know the big picture.
1. In April, AILA rleased that Mr.O said there are 12k EB1 left over. In the
same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with PD in 2007.
2. In May, Mr.O wrote in visa bulliten that the porting from EB3 to EB2 is
minimal. In the same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with
PD 2008.
Are these things a conincidence? No, I don't think so. Mr.O's office
definitely informed NVC the future PD dates.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢,查了一下,原来Mr.O's office也是DOS下的一个机构。
:
: cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

avatar
a*k
53
原来是你养的小师妹啊,不错不错,没有辜负您~

【在 a***e 的大作中提到】
: 我们家小师妹就是有才
avatar
A*r
54
I am a fan of rocketsfan now.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
a*o
55
是师妹还是学妹?

【在 a***e 的大作中提到】
: 我们家小师妹就是有才
avatar
m*e
56
me too!

【在 A*r 的大作中提到】
: I am a fan of rocketsfan now.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
p*f
57
There are way more......

【在 h********0 的大作中提到】
: 怎么都没想到,学生物,会有这么才华横溢的人。
avatar
l*7
58
NIU要不要考虑和NVC搭上关系呢?反正MR。O那也套不出什么东西。
avatar
o*g
59
晕倒……
avatar
L*a
60
说明o以为我们不知道他们知道的这种关系
才在后面的回信中继续含糊其辞,‘several months’之类的
其实真正的cutoffdate他已然知道
it隐藏的很深啊

the
with

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think NVC gets the latest information from Mr.O's office.
: I bet anything that Mr.O's office provided a list of possible PD dates to
: NVC in April. Otherwise NVC wouldn't send out these notices starting from
: April.
: If we think about the series of events, we would know the big picture.
: 1. In April, AILA rleased that Mr.O said there are 12k EB1 left over. In the
: same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with PD in 2007.
: 2. In May, Mr.O wrote in visa bulliten that the porting from EB3 to EB2 is
: minimal. In the same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with
: PD 2008.

avatar
D*t
61
Any insider information about who your parents are, 悟空?

【在 o****g 的大作中提到】
: 晕倒……
avatar
A*r
62
I am a fan of rocketsfan now.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
m*9
63
只有Y的单倍体缺少大量基因表达,理论上不能成活吧?
avatar
i*t
64
根据历史,O先生都是最后一周内才制定cut-off日期的八

【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 说明o以为我们不知道他们知道的这种关系
: 才在后面的回信中继续含糊其辞,‘several months’之类的
: 其实真正的cutoffdate他已然知道
: it隐藏的很深啊
:
: the
: with

avatar
M*U
65
火箭大侠,我知道我心急,请教一下,您之前也说之后也不会后退,而是稳步前进。按
这个趋势,10年3月的PD大概要等到啥时候呢?
avatar
r*n
66
I think 100% he has a preliminery list of PDs.
I think he sent this list to NVC already.
That's why we are seeing the fee notices.
Last year Family Based movement was similar! People were surprised to get
fee noticed because their PD were years away from VB, but finally they got
current in last summer!
Everything is telling us that he already had his plan!

【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 说明o以为我们不知道他们知道的这种关系
: 才在后面的回信中继续含糊其辞,‘several months’之类的
: 其实真正的cutoffdate他已然知道
: it隐藏的很深啊
:
: the
: with

avatar
r*n
67
I think Mr.O already got a preliminery list of PDs.
he finalize in the last week, but he has his plan already.

【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: 根据历史,O先生都是最后一周内才制定cut-off日期的八
avatar
r*n
68
I think most probably you can submit 485 in the summer of 2013 and get green
in 2014. Just my personal opinion for your reference.

【在 M**U 的大作中提到】
: 火箭大侠,我知道我心急,请教一下,您之前也说之后也不会后退,而是稳步前进。按
: 这个趋势,10年3月的PD大概要等到啥时候呢?

avatar
r*n
69
Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
cents!

【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】
: 为什么不是08年中?
avatar
b*n
70
ZAN, so pd in sept may pass 2008 to 2009!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
cents!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
: predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
: date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
: September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
: notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
: got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
: Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
: cents!

avatar
D*M
71
扇哥的贴着实让人HIGH。

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
: predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
: date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
: September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
: notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
: got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
: Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
: cents!

avatar
y*n
72
建议火箭还是用中文发帖子

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
: predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
: date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
: September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
: notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
: got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
: Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
: cents!

avatar
m*r
73
re this

【在 s******7 的大作中提到】
: 保佑保佑能进入到09年阿。。。
avatar
m*o
74
谢谢火箭扇
avatar
a*n
75
多谢火箭扇的努力和分享!
avatar
H*E
76
thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
forward ? thanks !
avatar
b*n
77
if adavnce to 2008, definitely retro since no quota avaliable, hehe

thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
happen after that ? do you think they'll retrogress again ? or keep moving
forward ? thanks !

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
: that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
: happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
: I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
: believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
: happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
: forward ? thanks !

avatar
f*s
78
火箭扇起了一轮又一轮的新高潮!现在2009的PD们都high了
avatar
y*n
79
火箭只是google到了那个菲利宾人的FB case, 接下来的情况任何人都可以做research。
retrogress与否是取决于中国人EB2里面的demand(perm + NIW) vs. supply(quota +
SO), VB排期大跃进是为了build inventory以不至于到后来浪费名额。

what
to
moving

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
: that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
: happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
: I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
: believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
: happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
: forward ? thanks !

avatar
r*n
80
yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
months to get ready.
If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to
use visa number, it took 3-4 months to process new cases)
Dec 2010-1/1/1988 (they got enough cases ready for approval, then retrogress)
July 2011-5/15/1988
You can see that they moved PD big steps in the last quarter of FY 2010.
They kept the 1991 PD for almost 3 months in the first quarter of FY 2011
because they didn't have any approvable cases yet. After 3-4 months, some of
these cases got ready for approval, then they got enough demand and moved
the PD back to 1988.
I think EB2 China may follow the same pattern.

what
to
moving

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
: that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
: happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
: I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
: believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
: happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
: forward ? thanks !

avatar
g*e
81
2009 09 的还是没戏呀
又悲剧了
avatar
H*E
82
very good information. thanks ! yeah I agree with you -- if EB2IC jump a
big step this summer most likely the PD follow the same pattern.
Right now the key thing is how far they want to jump forward..... so far
the latest PD got fee notice is June 2008 right ? unfortunately my PD is
July 2008... kind of right across the line.... let's keep our fingers
crossed.

-4
to

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
: quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
: retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
: will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
: months to get ready.
: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
: Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
: May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
: Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
: Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to

avatar
a*n
83
rocketsfan, this is a perfect case study you've done.
all your efforts and info are much appreciated.

-4
to

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
: quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
: retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
: will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
: months to get ready.
: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
: Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
: May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
: Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
: Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to

avatar
r*n
84
you are very welcome!
I just want to share my research with my chinese fellows!
I hope it can help us understand the DOS/NVC/USCIS process better.

【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: rocketsfan, this is a perfect case study you've done.
: all your efforts and info are much appreciated.
:
: -4
: to

avatar
H*i
85
大批象我一样的新警察会买的!
什么是fee notice? 什么是SO? 可以简单扫一下盲吗?
为什么网上说NVC是私营公司呢?我太欣赏火箭饭用NVC的收费通知来预测PD current
dates!
National Visa Center (NVC): A private company located in Portsmouth, New
Hampshire that processes certain immigration filings under contract with the
U.S. Department of State (DOS). In appropriate cases, NVC receives approved
green card petitions from USCIS or DOS and continues the green card process
by sending forms and instructions to the applicant, receiving the forms and
supporting documents back from the applicant, and then forwarding the
applicant’s file to the proper U.S. embassy or consulate abroad.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS): An agency of the
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) responsible for ruling on immigration
and naturalization matters and establishing immigration policies and
priorities. USCIS was formerly called the Immigration and Naturalization
Service (INS) and was part of the U.S. Department of Justice. On March 1,
2003, INS transitioned into DHS. Thus, INS no longer exists.
USCIS functions include adjudication of immigrant visa petitions,
adjudication of naturalization petitions, adjudication of asylum and refugee
applications, adjudications performed at the service centers, and all other
adjudications formerly performed by the INS.
Department of State (DOS)
avatar
r*n
86
Like what I said: NVC date should be the most conservative date they
determined based on the demand data. I think the final PD will be several
months or one year later than the NVC notice.
The Phillipine had PD 1989 and got notice when the VB had a date of 1987.
But the final VB released with PD 1/1/1991. I don't know whether the folks
with 1990 received any fee notice or not, but I am sure NVC was sure the PD
will move to AT LEAST 1989.

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: very good information. thanks ! yeah I agree with you -- if EB2IC jump a
: big step this summer most likely the PD follow the same pattern.
: Right now the key thing is how far they want to jump forward..... so far
: the latest PD got fee notice is June 2008 right ? unfortunately my PD is
: July 2008... kind of right across the line.... let's keep our fingers
: crossed.
:
: -4
: to

avatar
r*n
87
Fee notice: ask people to pay fee for consulate green card interview
SO: spill over, all the left over of EB1 and EB2 ROW go to EB C&I.

the
approved
process
and

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 大批象我一样的新警察会买的!
: 什么是fee notice? 什么是SO? 可以简单扫一下盲吗?
: 为什么网上说NVC是私营公司呢?我太欣赏火箭饭用NVC的收费通知来预测PD current
: dates!
: National Visa Center (NVC): A private company located in Portsmouth, New
: Hampshire that processes certain immigration filings under contract with the
: U.S. Department of State (DOS). In appropriate cases, NVC receives approved
: green card petitions from USCIS or DOS and continues the green card process
: by sending forms and instructions to the applicant, receiving the forms and
: supporting documents back from the applicant, and then forwarding the

avatar
H*i
88
Thank you!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Fee notice: ask people to pay fee for consulate green card interview
: SO: spill over, all the left over of EB1 and EB2 ROW go to EB C&I.
:
: the
: approved
: process
: and

avatar
b*s
89
Rocketsfan: Thanks a lot for this informatiom. Just got a quick question for
you: My old Priority Date is Mar2008, it looks likely I can submit my 485
this coming Sep and several months after. But since I changed the job, I am
still doing my new PERM ads now, hopefully i can submit PERM at end of this
July. luckily It will probably take two months to get PERM approved. After
that, should I submit 140 and 485 together? someone already suggested me to
file 140 first, then 485, but I am afraid the retrogress, what do you think?
Thanks a lot.

-4
to

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
: quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
: retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
: will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
: months to get ready.
: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
: Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
: May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
: Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
: Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to

avatar
r*n
90
I think your PERM will be approved by Oct.1st.
If your PD becomes current, of course you should submit 140 and 485 at the
same time.
Keep a close eye on the coming VBs.

for
am
this
to
think?

【在 b**********s 的大作中提到】
: Rocketsfan: Thanks a lot for this informatiom. Just got a quick question for
: you: My old Priority Date is Mar2008, it looks likely I can submit my 485
: this coming Sep and several months after. But since I changed the job, I am
: still doing my new PERM ads now, hopefully i can submit PERM at end of this
: July. luckily It will probably take two months to get PERM approved. After
: that, should I submit 140 and 485 together? someone already suggested me to
: file 140 first, then 485, but I am afraid the retrogress, what do you think?
: Thanks a lot.
:
: -4

avatar
b*s
91
Thanks for the qucik response. If I am going to file the 140 and 485
togehter, will they port my old PD to the New I-140 thanks. And will it
cause any confusion for those Officer, Thanks a lot.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think your PERM will be approved by Oct.1st.
: If your PD becomes current, of course you should submit 140 and 485 at the
: same time.
: Keep a close eye on the coming VBs.
:
: for
: am
: this
: to
: think?

avatar
y*n
92
真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了

PD

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Like what I said: NVC date should be the most conservative date they
: determined based on the demand data. I think the final PD will be several
: months or one year later than the NVC notice.
: The Phillipine had PD 1989 and got notice when the VB had a date of 1987.
: But the final VB released with PD 1/1/1991. I don't know whether the folks
: with 1990 received any fee notice or not, but I am sure NVC was sure the PD
: will move to AT LEAST 1989.

avatar
p*e
93
personally I gave rocketsfan 10 baozhi
hehe
avatar
s*7
94
i gave 3 :))

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: personally I gave rocketsfan 10 baozhi
: hehe

avatar
z*a
95
Because of company relocation, I have to restart the whole process including
the PERM and I-140 submission. So I have the same question here, can the
PD transfer only after new I-140 been approved? As everybody know, it take a
long time to approve new I-140. Thanks a lot for instructions!

【在 b**********s 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for the qucik response. If I am going to file the 140 and 485
: togehter, will they port my old PD to the New I-140 thanks. And will it
: cause any confusion for those Officer, Thanks a lot.

avatar
H*E
96
thanks for your message rocketsfan. that's encouraging.

PD

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Like what I said: NVC date should be the most conservative date they
: determined based on the demand data. I think the final PD will be several
: months or one year later than the NVC notice.
: The Phillipine had PD 1989 and got notice when the VB had a date of 1987.
: But the final VB released with PD 1/1/1991. I don't know whether the folks
: with 1990 received any fee notice or not, but I am sure NVC was sure the PD
: will move to AT LEAST 1989.

avatar
m*e
97
对啊对啊
先送个包子给火箭扇,
辛苦了啊.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了
:
: PD

avatar
r*n
98
I don't know the relink issue.
I hope other guys can answer it.
best blesses to you guys.

including
a

【在 z********a 的大作中提到】
: Because of company relocation, I have to restart the whole process including
: the PERM and I-140 submission. So I have the same question here, can the
: PD transfer only after new I-140 been approved? As everybody know, it take a
: long time to approve new I-140. Thanks a lot for instructions!

avatar
J*t
99
我不指望进到09年,能进到08年然后能稳步前进我就知足了。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了
:
: PD

avatar
b*s
100
Another question: Can I doing Premium Process for 140 if I am going to file
140 and 485 togehter? Thanks a lot, No Baozhi yet, otherwise I will Baozhi
to whoever answered my questions. Thanks again.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't know the relink issue.
: I hope other guys can answer it.
: best blesses to you guys.
:
: including
: a

avatar
r*n
101
I think you can.

file

【在 b**********s 的大作中提到】
: Another question: Can I doing Premium Process for 140 if I am going to file
: 140 and 485 togehter? Thanks a lot, No Baozhi yet, otherwise I will Baozhi
: to whoever answered my questions. Thanks again.

avatar
g*k
102
我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
FEE NOTICE。
是为佐证。
avatar
s*t
103
good supporting evidence.

【在 g*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
: 排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
: FEE NOTICE。
: 是为佐证。

avatar
r*n
104
what is your PD? On June 10th, you said "我的排期还差一个月".
I thought your PD is April 2007.

【在 g*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
: 排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
: FEE NOTICE。
: 是为佐证。

avatar
V*l
105
赞。。。。。。。
avatar
r*n
106
I agree.
You received the NVC notice because Mr.O release a news through AILA in
April: there are more than 12k spillover from EB1 in the first two quarters.
That news drove him to notify NVC to send out those notices. It's not a
coincidence at all.

【在 g*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
: 排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
: FEE NOTICE。
: 是为佐证。

avatar
g*k
107
火箭大人明察秋毫,其实我本人的PD是07年3月底,排期在11月又收到fee notice是我
一个朋友,懒得解释这么多,所以都用本人的名义,还是让火箭大人看出来了。

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: what is your PD? On June 10th, you said "我的排期还差一个月".
: I thought your PD is April 2007.

avatar
s*7
108
火箭牛的。。。
avatar
y*1
109
Rocketsfan, is it possible for PD 7/18/08 to submit 485 in this Sep.?
40%, 50%, 60%.....?

quarters.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I agree.
: You received the NVC notice because Mr.O release a news through AILA in
: April: there are more than 12k spillover from EB1 in the first two quarters.
: That news drove him to notify NVC to send out those notices. It's not a
: coincidence at all.

avatar
a*n
110
based on what i learned from this board, i think the
rule of thumb for PD cutoff prediction is:
PD of CP cases - 1 yr
so, its not "再加一年", rather its "再减一年"

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了
:
: PD

avatar
l*l
111
这个月发08/06,下个月就发11/03了!哈哈
avatar
U*n
112
还是不明白.是说发fee notice给还没交485的吗?
avatar
f*s
113
赞火箭明察秋毫,思维缜密,分析推理有理有据。
avatar
s*h
114
Great Stuff! If my PD become current this sept. I will give all my baozi to
you.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.

avatar
j*e
115
根据我的调查,NVC fee和Visa Bulletin的相关性被严重高估。楼主找到一个case,就
认为NVC fee notice代表未来几个月VB,是以偏概全。这个case完全可能是凑巧。
我找到另一个case说明NVC fee notice完全有可能错估VB,见http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/266671-nvc-and-priority-dates/
这个阿根廷人申请FB1类,PD大约是07年8月,去年7月他就收到NVC fee notice,然而
一年过去了,FB1-ROW的排期还在04年徘徊,虽然中间曾经到达过06年2月的高点(见http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Cut-off_Dates_worldwide_online.pdf),但后
来又大幅倒退(http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html),此人的PD到current还遥遥无期。照楼主的说法,NVC fee是most
conservative的,那他早就应该排到了。
avatar
r*n
116
We don't know his/her PD. We can't tell from this post.
How could you figure out his/her PD?

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 根据我的调查,NVC fee和Visa Bulletin的相关性被严重高估。楼主找到一个case,就
: 认为NVC fee notice代表未来几个月VB,是以偏概全。这个case完全可能是凑巧。
: 我找到另一个case说明NVC fee notice完全有可能错估VB,见http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/266671-nvc-and-priority-dates/
: 这个阿根廷人申请FB1类,PD大约是07年8月,去年7月他就收到NVC fee notice,然而
: 一年过去了,FB1-ROW的排期还在04年徘徊,虽然中间曾经到达过06年2月的高点(见http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Cut-off_Dates_worldwide_online.pdf),但后
: 来又大幅倒退(http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html),此人的PD到current还遥遥无期。照楼主的说法,NVC fee是most
: conservative的,那他早就应该排到了。

avatar
j*e
117
He said "According to the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in
2 years"
发帖时间去年7/24,去年的7月,8月FB1-ROW的VB都是Aug 05,推两年就是Aug 07

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: We don't know his/her PD. We can't tell from this post.
: How could you figure out his/her PD?

avatar
r*n
118
Time=Distance/Speed.
Everybody knows the slow speed of GC, it's very possible he made that
statement based on the moving speed of VB.
This case is not clear at all. Additionally I doubt this guy really knows
his PD.

in

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: He said "According to the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in
: 2 years"
: 发帖时间去年7/24,去年的7月,8月FB1-ROW的VB都是Aug 05,推两年就是Aug 07

avatar
j*e
119
FB1-ROW moved fast in the past year when the author post his question.
FB1-ROW Aug09VB = 1/8/03. Aug10VB=8/1/05, PD moved more than 2 years in just
1 year.
Believe what you want to believe is easy. Believe what you don't want to is
not so easy.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Time=Distance/Speed.
: Everybody knows the slow speed of GC, it's very possible he made that
: statement based on the moving speed of VB.
: This case is not clear at all. Additionally I doubt this guy really knows
: his PD.
:
: in

avatar
s*e
120
It does not mean his PD is Aug. 2007.

in

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: He said "According to the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in
: 2 years"
: 发帖时间去年7/24,去年的7月,8月FB1-ROW的VB都是Aug 05,推两年就是Aug 07

avatar
s*e
121
Rocketsfan is correct.
avatar
j*e
122
如果他的PD是06年,而当时VB已经排到05年8月的时候,你认为他会说“According to
the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in 2 years”吗? 尤其是考
虑到在他发帖的过去一年中FB1-ROW的排期大幅跃进了两年。

【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: It does not mean his PD is Aug. 2007.
:
: in

avatar
s*e
123
We are all just guessing. Nothing is clear until we can find out his real PD
.
avatar
j*e
124
你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
头脑的人都会自己分析。

PD

【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: We are all just guessing. Nothing is clear until we can find out his real PD
: .

avatar
b*n
125
let's find more cases to do inference, hehe

你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
头脑的人都会自己分析。
PD

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
: 头脑的人都会自己分析。
:
: PD

avatar
r*n
126
Thanks for your efforts finding this case. The only thing is that this post
didn't provide his PD clearly. Of course it is possible that his PD is in
2007.
It gave us a reminder that we shouldn't be too confident about my previous
analysis. I will try to do more research about it.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
: 头脑的人都会自己分析。
:
: PD

avatar
g*o
127
jwe,
你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
2008.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
: 头脑的人都会自己分析。
:
: PD

avatar
f*u
128
ahoh, somebody is ruining the party
avatar
H*E
129
no don't put it in that way.
it's all predictions, nobody knows for sure what's Mr. O's move for next.
more information/discussion from a different point of view is always better
and should be encouraged.

【在 f*******u 的大作中提到】
: ahoh, somebody is ruining the party
avatar
r*n
130
cool! I didn't know they have two kinds of notices.
Could you please explain the difference?

【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: jwe,
: 你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
: That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
: 我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
: 以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
: 2008.

avatar
r*n
131
yes, it's good to hear different opinions.
It's a forum for discussion and we should work together.

better

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: no don't put it in that way.
: it's all predictions, nobody knows for sure what's Mr. O's move for next.
: more information/discussion from a different point of view is always better
: and should be encouraged.

avatar
f*u
132
K, my bad.thanks for all the information and analysis:)

better

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: no don't put it in that way.
: it's all predictions, nobody knows for sure what's Mr. O's move for next.
: more information/discussion from a different point of view is always better
: and should be encouraged.

avatar
s*e
133
This is the place WE like. :)
avatar
k*o
134
是啊,你们双方虽然持不同观点,但都是理性的讨论。现在大家又学习了新的知识,原
来还有这么多不同的收费notice。多谢!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, it's good to hear different opinions.
: It's a forum for discussion and we should work together.
:
: better

avatar
r*n
135
I did further analysis and what you said makes perfect sense now. Thanks for providing this important clue.
There are two type of fees from NVC.
The affidavit of support processing fee (also called AOS fee)
immigrant visa processing fee (IV fee).


【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: jwe,
: 你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
: That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
: 我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
: 以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
: 2008.

avatar
k*o
136
good finding...

the
.
card
sent
the

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I did further analysis and what you said makes perfect sense now. Thanks for providing this important clue.
: There are two type of fees from NVC.
: The affidavit of support processing fee (also called AOS fee)
: immigrant visa processing fee (IV fee).
:

avatar
r*n
138
No, you misunderstood it.
On immihelp website you pointed to, it said: "the IV fee will be sent to the
applicant or agent designated by the applicant on the Form DS-3032."
DS-3032 is not IV fee. DS-3032 only tells NVC where the IV fee bill should be
sent to.


the

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: According to http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/nvc-aos-fee-iv-fee-payment.html
: DS-3032 就是IV fee。
: 那个阿根廷人说"10 days ago I received from the NVC the Form DS-3032 and the
: affidavit of support fee"
: 就是说他同时收到了AOS fee和IV fee notice.

avatar
j*e
139
多谢澄清。
但是你在顶楼举的这个菲律宾人的例子,也是讲他收到的DS-3032,“Recently, we
received from the NVC various forms for my brother’s immigrant visa
processing, such as Choice of Address and Agent form.”这里的“Choice of
Address and Agent”不就是DS-3032吗?
而且从这个帖子看"http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/134404-when-will-nvc-invoice-my-iv-fee-bill/"
有人说"After DS-3032 confirmation, you can expect one week to get IV fee
bill invoiced"
也就是说DS-3032跟IV fee之间是非常接近的。

the
be

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: No, you misunderstood it.
: On immihelp website you pointed to, it said: "the IV fee will be sent to the
: applicant or agent designated by the applicant on the Form DS-3032."
: DS-3032 is not IV fee. DS-3032 only tells NVC where the IV fee bill should be
: sent to.
:
:
: the

avatar
h*8
140
very appreciated, 赞

for providing this important clue.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I did further analysis and what you said makes perfect sense now. Thanks for providing this important clue.
: There are two type of fees from NVC.
: The affidavit of support processing fee (also called AOS fee)
: immigrant visa processing fee (IV fee).
:

avatar
h*8
141
re
avatar
p*e
142
弱问一声:
什么人才会收到这样的通知?如果是自己办的,也会收到么?
谢谢!
avatar
r*n
143
In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.
I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.
I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she might have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.
This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."
In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990! Finally it turned out the attorney was wrong!
NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!
Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the September VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two cents!
Add 2nd thing: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas. Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to use visa number)
Dec 2010-1/1/1988 (they got enough cases ready for approval, then retrogess)
July 2011-5/15/1988
You can see that they moved PD big steps in the last quarter of FY 2010. They kept the 1991 PD for almost 3 months in the first quarter of FY 2011 because they didn't have any approvable cases yet. After 3-4 months, some of these cases got ready for approval, then they got enough demand and moved the PD back to 1988.
I think EB2 China may follow the same pattern.
avatar
w*g
144
呵呵,火箭饭发新主题帖的时候,就是大家欢庆的时候。

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
s*7
145
保佑保佑能进入到09年阿。。。
avatar
h*8
146
mark, 赞
avatar
g*g
147
8月不会,九月大概到08年三月底,既不保守,又不浪费。比较符合O大傻的风格。
幻想C是不现实的, 失望是不可避免的。
avatar
l*o
148
indeed good news.
avatar
y*n
149
赞火箭的专研态度。
请教一下,NVC和USCIS是一个怎么样的合作关系?一个是国务院下专管visa的,一个是
homeland security下专管移民的,他们是怎么互相协作的?老实说就一个星期前,我
还不知道有NVC这么个机构,以为file了140后,都归CIS管了。
谢谢。

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
c*l
150
希望下个月的通知发到09年的,哈哈.
avatar
r*n
151
NVC is directly under DOS. It's located in NH. NVC is one part of DOS. All
the US embassy and consular events are also under DOS. NVC is handling
embassy and consular events, so it is directly under DOS. Bascially Mr.O's
office has a closer relationship to NVC than USCIS.
USCIS is not under DOS. It's more like an independent organization. Green cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 赞火箭的专研态度。
: 请教一下,NVC和USCIS是一个怎么样的合作关系?一个是国务院下专管visa的,一个是
: homeland security下专管移民的,他们是怎么互相协作的?老实说就一个星期前,我
: 还不知道有NVC这么个机构,以为file了140后,都归CIS管了。
: 谢谢。
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
A*g
152
hope it comes true, next two months will be longest

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
s*m
153
为什么不是08年中?

【在 g**********g 的大作中提到】
: 8月不会,九月大概到08年三月底,既不保守,又不浪费。比较符合O大傻的风格。
: 幻想C是不现实的, 失望是不可避免的。

avatar
r*n
154
An Indian guy got fee notice with PD of June 2008, but that's the only case
we heard so far. I will keep monitoring the situation and keep you posted.

【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】
: 为什么不是08年中?
avatar
s*m
155
哈哈, thanks Man

case

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: An Indian guy got fee notice with PD of June 2008, but that's the only case
: we heard so far. I will keep monitoring the situation and keep you posted.

avatar
y*n
156
谢谢,查了一下,原来Mr.O's office也是DOS下的一个机构。

cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: NVC is directly under DOS. It's located in NH. NVC is one part of DOS. All
: the US embassy and consular events are also under DOS. NVC is handling
: embassy and consular events, so it is directly under DOS. Bascially Mr.O's
: office has a closer relationship to NVC than USCIS.
: USCIS is not under DOS. It's more like an independent organization. Green cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

avatar
e*7
157
如果pd下个月到8/2007,我给你包子

notice
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
r*n
158
I think NVC gets the latest information from Mr.O's office.
I bet anything that Mr.O's office provided a list of possible PD dates to
NVC in April. Otherwise NVC wouldn't send out these notices starting from
April.
If we think about the series of events, we would know the big picture.
1. In April, AILA rleased that Mr.O said there are 12k EB1 left over. In the
same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with PD in 2007.
2. In May, Mr.O wrote in visa bulliten that the porting from EB3 to EB2 is
minimal. In the same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with
PD 2008.
Are these things a conincidence? No, I don't think so. Mr.O's office
definitely informed NVC the future PD dates.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢,查了一下,原来Mr.O's office也是DOS下的一个机构。
:
: cards are distributed from USCIS and NVC at the same time.

avatar
A*r
159
I am a fan of rocketsfan now.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
m*e
160
me too!

【在 A*r 的大作中提到】
: I am a fan of rocketsfan now.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
l*7
161
NIU要不要考虑和NVC搭上关系呢?反正MR。O那也套不出什么东西。
avatar
L*a
162
说明o以为我们不知道他们知道的这种关系
才在后面的回信中继续含糊其辞,‘several months’之类的
其实真正的cutoffdate他已然知道
it隐藏的很深啊

the
with

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think NVC gets the latest information from Mr.O's office.
: I bet anything that Mr.O's office provided a list of possible PD dates to
: NVC in April. Otherwise NVC wouldn't send out these notices starting from
: April.
: If we think about the series of events, we would know the big picture.
: 1. In April, AILA rleased that Mr.O said there are 12k EB1 left over. In the
: same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with PD in 2007.
: 2. In May, Mr.O wrote in visa bulliten that the porting from EB3 to EB2 is
: minimal. In the same month, NVC started sending fee notices to the guys with
: PD 2008.

avatar
A*r
163
I am a fan of rocketsfan now.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
i*t
164
根据历史,O先生都是最后一周内才制定cut-off日期的八

【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 说明o以为我们不知道他们知道的这种关系
: 才在后面的回信中继续含糊其辞,‘several months’之类的
: 其实真正的cutoffdate他已然知道
: it隐藏的很深啊
:
: the
: with

avatar
M*U
165
火箭大侠,我知道我心急,请教一下,您之前也说之后也不会后退,而是稳步前进。按
这个趋势,10年3月的PD大概要等到啥时候呢?
avatar
r*n
166
I think 100% he has a preliminery list of PDs.
I think he sent this list to NVC already.
That's why we are seeing the fee notices.
Last year Family Based movement was similar! People were surprised to get
fee noticed because their PD were years away from VB, but finally they got
current in last summer!
Everything is telling us that he already had his plan!

【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: 说明o以为我们不知道他们知道的这种关系
: 才在后面的回信中继续含糊其辞,‘several months’之类的
: 其实真正的cutoffdate他已然知道
: it隐藏的很深啊
:
: the
: with

avatar
r*n
167
I think Mr.O already got a preliminery list of PDs.
he finalize in the last week, but he has his plan already.

【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: 根据历史,O先生都是最后一周内才制定cut-off日期的八
avatar
r*n
168
I think most probably you can submit 485 in the summer of 2013 and get green
in 2014. Just my personal opinion for your reference.

【在 M**U 的大作中提到】
: 火箭大侠,我知道我心急,请教一下,您之前也说之后也不会后退,而是稳步前进。按
: 这个趋势,10年3月的PD大概要等到啥时候呢?

avatar
r*n
169
Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
cents!

【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】
: 为什么不是08年中?
avatar
b*n
170
ZAN, so pd in sept may pass 2008 to 2009!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
cents!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
: predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
: date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
: September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
: notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
: got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
: Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
: cents!

avatar
D*M
171
扇哥的贴着实让人HIGH。

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
: predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
: date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
: September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
: notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
: got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
: Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
: cents!

avatar
y*n
172
建议火箭还是用中文发帖子

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Add one thing: NVC date must be the most conservative date that Mr.O
: predicted. That means the final PD will be even better than the latest NVC
: date. For example, Phillipine FB4 Visa Bulliten reached 1/1/1991 in the
: September 2010 VB! The guy in this article had PD of 1989 and he got fee
: notice. The people with PD 1990 may not receive any notice, but they still
: got current. In my opinion, the NVC date is the most conservative date and
: Mr.O is confident that VB will move to that date at least! Just my two
: cents!

avatar
m*r
173
re this

【在 s******7 的大作中提到】
: 保佑保佑能进入到09年阿。。。
avatar
m*o
174
谢谢火箭扇
avatar
a*n
175
多谢火箭扇的努力和分享!
avatar
H*E
176
thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
forward ? thanks !
avatar
b*n
177
if adavnce to 2008, definitely retro since no quota avaliable, hehe

thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
happen after that ? do you think they'll retrogress again ? or keep moving
forward ? thanks !

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
: that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
: happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
: I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
: believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
: happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
: forward ? thanks !

avatar
f*s
178
火箭扇起了一轮又一轮的新高潮!现在2009的PD们都high了
avatar
y*n
179
火箭只是google到了那个菲利宾人的FB case, 接下来的情况任何人都可以做research。
retrogress与否是取决于中国人EB2里面的demand(perm + NIW) vs. supply(quota +
SO), VB排期大跃进是为了build inventory以不至于到后来浪费名额。

what
to
moving

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
: that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
: happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
: I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
: believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
: happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
: forward ? thanks !

avatar
r*n
180
yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
months to get ready.
If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to
use visa number, it took 3-4 months to process new cases)
Dec 2010-1/1/1988 (they got enough cases ready for approval, then retrogress)
July 2011-5/15/1988
You can see that they moved PD big steps in the last quarter of FY 2010.
They kept the 1991 PD for almost 3 months in the first quarter of FY 2011
because they didn't have any approvable cases yet. After 3-4 months, some of
these cases got ready for approval, then they got enough demand and moved
the PD back to 1988.
I think EB2 China may follow the same pattern.

what
to
moving

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: thanks for the info, rocketsfan.
: that's a very interesting story about Philippine FB4. I am curious on what
: happened after their PD has a big jump---was there any retrogress ?
: I think right now EB2IC may have a similar situation this summer; everyone
: believes PD will have a big jump into 2008; if that's true what's going to
: happen after that ? do you think the PD will retrogress again ? or keep moving
: forward ? thanks !

avatar
g*e
181
2009 09 的还是没戏呀
又悲剧了
avatar
H*E
182
very good information. thanks ! yeah I agree with you -- if EB2IC jump a
big step this summer most likely the PD follow the same pattern.
Right now the key thing is how far they want to jump forward..... so far
the latest PD got fee notice is June 2008 right ? unfortunately my PD is
July 2008... kind of right across the line.... let's keep our fingers
crossed.

-4
to

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
: quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
: retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
: will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
: months to get ready.
: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
: Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
: May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
: Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
: Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to

avatar
a*n
183
rocketsfan, this is a perfect case study you've done.
all your efforts and info are much appreciated.

-4
to

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
: quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
: retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
: will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
: months to get ready.
: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
: Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
: May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
: Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
: Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to

avatar
r*n
184
you are very welcome!
I just want to share my research with my chinese fellows!
I hope it can help us understand the DOS/NVC/USCIS process better.

【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: rocketsfan, this is a perfect case study you've done.
: all your efforts and info are much appreciated.
:
: -4
: to

avatar
H*i
185
大批象我一样的新警察会买的!
什么是fee notice? 什么是SO? 可以简单扫一下盲吗?
为什么网上说NVC是私营公司呢?我太欣赏火箭饭用NVC的收费通知来预测PD current
dates!
National Visa Center (NVC): A private company located in Portsmouth, New
Hampshire that processes certain immigration filings under contract with the
U.S. Department of State (DOS). In appropriate cases, NVC receives approved
green card petitions from USCIS or DOS and continues the green card process
by sending forms and instructions to the applicant, receiving the forms and
supporting documents back from the applicant, and then forwarding the
applicant’s file to the proper U.S. embassy or consulate abroad.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS): An agency of the
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) responsible for ruling on immigration
and naturalization matters and establishing immigration policies and
priorities. USCIS was formerly called the Immigration and Naturalization
Service (INS) and was part of the U.S. Department of Justice. On March 1,
2003, INS transitioned into DHS. Thus, INS no longer exists.
USCIS functions include adjudication of immigrant visa petitions,
adjudication of naturalization petitions, adjudication of asylum and refugee
applications, adjudications performed at the service centers, and all other
adjudications formerly performed by the INS.
Department of State (DOS)
avatar
r*n
186
Like what I said: NVC date should be the most conservative date they
determined based on the demand data. I think the final PD will be several
months or one year later than the NVC notice.
The Phillipine had PD 1989 and got notice when the VB had a date of 1987.
But the final VB released with PD 1/1/1991. I don't know whether the folks
with 1990 received any fee notice or not, but I am sure NVC was sure the PD
will move to AT LEAST 1989.

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: very good information. thanks ! yeah I agree with you -- if EB2IC jump a
: big step this summer most likely the PD follow the same pattern.
: Right now the key thing is how far they want to jump forward..... so far
: the latest PD got fee notice is June 2008 right ? unfortunately my PD is
: July 2008... kind of right across the line.... let's keep our fingers
: crossed.
:
: -4
: to

avatar
r*n
187
Fee notice: ask people to pay fee for consulate green card interview
SO: spill over, all the left over of EB1 and EB2 ROW go to EB C&I.

the
approved
process
and

【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 大批象我一样的新警察会买的!
: 什么是fee notice? 什么是SO? 可以简单扫一下盲吗?
: 为什么网上说NVC是私营公司呢?我太欣赏火箭饭用NVC的收费通知来预测PD current
: dates!
: National Visa Center (NVC): A private company located in Portsmouth, New
: Hampshire that processes certain immigration filings under contract with the
: U.S. Department of State (DOS). In appropriate cases, NVC receives approved
: green card petitions from USCIS or DOS and continues the green card process
: by sending forms and instructions to the applicant, receiving the forms and
: supporting documents back from the applicant, and then forwarding the

avatar
H*i
188
Thank you!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Fee notice: ask people to pay fee for consulate green card interview
: SO: spill over, all the left over of EB1 and EB2 ROW go to EB C&I.
:
: the
: approved
: process
: and

avatar
b*s
189
Rocketsfan: Thanks a lot for this informatiom. Just got a quick question for
you: My old Priority Date is Mar2008, it looks likely I can submit my 485
this coming Sep and several months after. But since I changed the job, I am
still doing my new PERM ads now, hopefully i can submit PERM at end of this
July. luckily It will probably take two months to get PERM approved. After
that, should I submit 140 and 485 together? someone already suggested me to
file 140 first, then 485, but I am afraid the retrogress, what do you think?
Thanks a lot.

-4
to

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, I think it may retrogress again in the future, but not in the first
: quarter of FY 2012. It may stick to one date for several months before
: retrogression. I have explained why last week. The newly submitted cases
: will not be ready for approval in the first quarter of FY 2012. It takes 3-4
: months to get ready.
: If you look at the Philippine FB4 date movement, you will have some ideas.
: Currently PH FB4 is in 1988.
: May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
: Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
: Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to

avatar
r*n
190
I think your PERM will be approved by Oct.1st.
If your PD becomes current, of course you should submit 140 and 485 at the
same time.
Keep a close eye on the coming VBs.

for
am
this
to
think?

【在 b**********s 的大作中提到】
: Rocketsfan: Thanks a lot for this informatiom. Just got a quick question for
: you: My old Priority Date is Mar2008, it looks likely I can submit my 485
: this coming Sep and several months after. But since I changed the job, I am
: still doing my new PERM ads now, hopefully i can submit PERM at end of this
: July. luckily It will probably take two months to get PERM approved. After
: that, should I submit 140 and 485 together? someone already suggested me to
: file 140 first, then 485, but I am afraid the retrogress, what do you think?
: Thanks a lot.
:
: -4

avatar
b*s
191
Thanks for the qucik response. If I am going to file the 140 and 485
togehter, will they port my old PD to the New I-140 thanks. And will it
cause any confusion for those Officer, Thanks a lot.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think your PERM will be approved by Oct.1st.
: If your PD becomes current, of course you should submit 140 and 485 at the
: same time.
: Keep a close eye on the coming VBs.
:
: for
: am
: this
: to
: think?

avatar
y*n
192
真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了

PD

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Like what I said: NVC date should be the most conservative date they
: determined based on the demand data. I think the final PD will be several
: months or one year later than the NVC notice.
: The Phillipine had PD 1989 and got notice when the VB had a date of 1987.
: But the final VB released with PD 1/1/1991. I don't know whether the folks
: with 1990 received any fee notice or not, but I am sure NVC was sure the PD
: will move to AT LEAST 1989.

avatar
p*e
193
personally I gave rocketsfan 10 baozhi
hehe
avatar
s*7
194
i gave 3 :))

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: personally I gave rocketsfan 10 baozhi
: hehe

avatar
z*a
195
Because of company relocation, I have to restart the whole process including
the PERM and I-140 submission. So I have the same question here, can the
PD transfer only after new I-140 been approved? As everybody know, it take a
long time to approve new I-140. Thanks a lot for instructions!

【在 b**********s 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for the qucik response. If I am going to file the 140 and 485
: togehter, will they port my old PD to the New I-140 thanks. And will it
: cause any confusion for those Officer, Thanks a lot.

avatar
H*E
196
thanks for your message rocketsfan. that's encouraging.

PD

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Like what I said: NVC date should be the most conservative date they
: determined based on the demand data. I think the final PD will be several
: months or one year later than the NVC notice.
: The Phillipine had PD 1989 and got notice when the VB had a date of 1987.
: But the final VB released with PD 1/1/1991. I don't know whether the folks
: with 1990 received any fee notice or not, but I am sure NVC was sure the PD
: will move to AT LEAST 1989.

avatar
m*e
197
对啊对啊
先送个包子给火箭扇,
辛苦了啊.

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了
:
: PD

avatar
r*n
198
I don't know the relink issue.
I hope other guys can answer it.
best blesses to you guys.

including
a

【在 z********a 的大作中提到】
: Because of company relocation, I have to restart the whole process including
: the PERM and I-140 submission. So I have the same question here, can the
: PD transfer only after new I-140 been approved? As everybody know, it take a
: long time to approve new I-140. Thanks a lot for instructions!

avatar
J*t
199
我不指望进到09年,能进到08年然后能稳步前进我就知足了。

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了
:
: PD

avatar
b*s
200
Another question: Can I doing Premium Process for 140 if I am going to file
140 and 485 togehter? Thanks a lot, No Baozhi yet, otherwise I will Baozhi
to whoever answered my questions. Thanks again.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't know the relink issue.
: I hope other guys can answer it.
: best blesses to you guys.
:
: including
: a

avatar
r*n
201
I think you can.

file

【在 b**********s 的大作中提到】
: Another question: Can I doing Premium Process for 140 if I am going to file
: 140 and 485 togehter? Thanks a lot, No Baozhi yet, otherwise I will Baozhi
: to whoever answered my questions. Thanks again.

avatar
g*k
202
我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
FEE NOTICE。
是为佐证。
avatar
s*t
203
good supporting evidence.

【在 g*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
: 排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
: FEE NOTICE。
: 是为佐证。

avatar
r*n
204
what is your PD? On June 10th, you said "我的排期还差一个月".
I thought your PD is April 2007.

【在 g*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
: 排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
: FEE NOTICE。
: 是为佐证。

avatar
V*l
205
赞。。。。。。。
avatar
r*n
206
I agree.
You received the NVC notice because Mr.O release a news through AILA in
April: there are more than 12k spillover from EB1 in the first two quarters.
That news drove him to notify NVC to send out those notices. It's not a
coincidence at all.

【在 g*******k 的大作中提到】
: 我在今年4月初收到NVC FEE NOTICE,当时在版上发帖,被人BS,说这些FEE NOTICE和
: 排期没有关系。我的PD是2006年11月,现在看来,确实NVC是在PD到之前两三个月发出
: FEE NOTICE。
: 是为佐证。

avatar
g*k
207
火箭大人明察秋毫,其实我本人的PD是07年3月底,排期在11月又收到fee notice是我
一个朋友,懒得解释这么多,所以都用本人的名义,还是让火箭大人看出来了。

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: what is your PD? On June 10th, you said "我的排期还差一个月".
: I thought your PD is April 2007.

avatar
s*7
208
火箭牛的。。。
avatar
y*1
209
Rocketsfan, is it possible for PD 7/18/08 to submit 485 in this Sep.?
40%, 50%, 60%.....?

quarters.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I agree.
: You received the NVC notice because Mr.O release a news through AILA in
: April: there are more than 12k spillover from EB1 in the first two quarters.
: That news drove him to notify NVC to send out those notices. It's not a
: coincidence at all.

avatar
a*n
210
based on what i learned from this board, i think the
rule of thumb for PD cutoff prediction is:
PD of CP cases - 1 yr
so, its not "再加一年", rather its "再减一年"

【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 真要在6/2008的基础上再加一年的话,09PD的可真要开始兴奋了
:
: PD

avatar
l*l
211
这个月发08/06,下个月就发11/03了!哈哈
avatar
U*n
212
还是不明白.是说发fee notice给还没交485的吗?
avatar
f*s
213
赞火箭明察秋毫,思维缜密,分析推理有理有据。
avatar
s*h
214
Great Stuff! If my PD become current this sept. I will give all my baozi to
you.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
j*e
215
根据我的调查,NVC fee和Visa Bulletin的相关性被严重高估。楼主找到一个case,就
认为NVC fee notice代表未来几个月VB,是以偏概全。这个case完全可能是凑巧。
我找到另一个case说明NVC fee notice完全有可能错估VB,见http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/266671-nvc-and-priority-dates/
这个阿根廷人申请FB1类,PD大约是07年8月,去年7月他就收到NVC fee notice,然而
一年过去了,FB1-ROW的排期还在04年徘徊,虽然中间曾经到达过06年2月的高点(见http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Cut-off_Dates_worldwide_online.pdf),但后
来又大幅倒退(http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html),此人的PD到current还遥遥无期。照楼主的说法,NVC fee是most
conservative的,那他早就应该排到了。
avatar
r*n
216
We don't know his/her PD. We can't tell from this post.
How could you figure out his/her PD?

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 根据我的调查,NVC fee和Visa Bulletin的相关性被严重高估。楼主找到一个case,就
: 认为NVC fee notice代表未来几个月VB,是以偏概全。这个case完全可能是凑巧。
: 我找到另一个case说明NVC fee notice完全有可能错估VB,见http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/266671-nvc-and-priority-dates/
: 这个阿根廷人申请FB1类,PD大约是07年8月,去年7月他就收到NVC fee notice,然而
: 一年过去了,FB1-ROW的排期还在04年徘徊,虽然中间曾经到达过06年2月的高点(见http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Cut-off_Dates_worldwide_online.pdf),但后
: 来又大幅倒退(http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html),此人的PD到current还遥遥无期。照楼主的说法,NVC fee是most
: conservative的,那他早就应该排到了。

avatar
j*e
217
He said "According to the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in
2 years"
发帖时间去年7/24,去年的7月,8月FB1-ROW的VB都是Aug 05,推两年就是Aug 07

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: We don't know his/her PD. We can't tell from this post.
: How could you figure out his/her PD?

avatar
r*n
218
Time=Distance/Speed.
Everybody knows the slow speed of GC, it's very possible he made that
statement based on the moving speed of VB.
This case is not clear at all. Additionally I doubt this guy really knows
his PD.

in

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: He said "According to the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in
: 2 years"
: 发帖时间去年7/24,去年的7月,8月FB1-ROW的VB都是Aug 05,推两年就是Aug 07

avatar
j*e
219
FB1-ROW moved fast in the past year when the author post his question.
FB1-ROW Aug09VB = 1/8/03. Aug10VB=8/1/05, PD moved more than 2 years in just
1 year.
Believe what you want to believe is easy. Believe what you don't want to is
not so easy.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Time=Distance/Speed.
: Everybody knows the slow speed of GC, it's very possible he made that
: statement based on the moving speed of VB.
: This case is not clear at all. Additionally I doubt this guy really knows
: his PD.
:
: in

avatar
s*e
220
It does not mean his PD is Aug. 2007.

in

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: He said "According to the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in
: 2 years"
: 发帖时间去年7/24,去年的7月,8月FB1-ROW的VB都是Aug 05,推两年就是Aug 07

avatar
s*e
221
Rocketsfan is correct.
avatar
j*e
222
如果他的PD是06年,而当时VB已经排到05年8月的时候,你认为他会说“According to
the Visa Bulletin, my priority date is going to be in 2 years”吗? 尤其是考
虑到在他发帖的过去一年中FB1-ROW的排期大幅跃进了两年。

【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: It does not mean his PD is Aug. 2007.
:
: in

avatar
s*e
223
We are all just guessing. Nothing is clear until we can find out his real PD
.
avatar
j*e
224
你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
头脑的人都会自己分析。

PD

【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: We are all just guessing. Nothing is clear until we can find out his real PD
: .

avatar
b*n
225
let's find more cases to do inference, hehe

你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
头脑的人都会自己分析。
PD

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
: 头脑的人都会自己分析。
:
: PD

avatar
r*n
226
Thanks for your efforts finding this case. The only thing is that this post
didn't provide his PD clearly. Of course it is possible that his PD is in
2007.
It gave us a reminder that we shouldn't be too confident about my previous
analysis. I will try to do more research about it.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
: 头脑的人都会自己分析。
:
: PD

avatar
g*o
227
jwe,
你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
2008.

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以继续选择性相信什么是real,什么是unreal。我只是客观陈述推理,相信版上有
: 头脑的人都会自己分析。
:
: PD

avatar
f*u
228
ahoh, somebody is ruining the party
avatar
H*E
229
no don't put it in that way.
it's all predictions, nobody knows for sure what's Mr. O's move for next.
more information/discussion from a different point of view is always better
and should be encouraged.

【在 f*******u 的大作中提到】
: ahoh, somebody is ruining the party
avatar
r*n
230
cool! I didn't know they have two kinds of notices.
Could you please explain the difference?

【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: jwe,
: 你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
: That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
: 我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
: 以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
: 2008.

avatar
r*n
231
yes, it's good to hear different opinions.
It's a forum for discussion and we should work together.

better

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: no don't put it in that way.
: it's all predictions, nobody knows for sure what's Mr. O's move for next.
: more information/discussion from a different point of view is always better
: and should be encouraged.

avatar
f*u
232
K, my bad.thanks for all the information and analysis:)

better

【在 H**E 的大作中提到】
: no don't put it in that way.
: it's all predictions, nobody knows for sure what's Mr. O's move for next.
: more information/discussion from a different point of view is always better
: and should be encouraged.

avatar
s*e
233
This is the place WE like. :)
avatar
k*o
234
是啊,你们双方虽然持不同观点,但都是理性的讨论。现在大家又学习了新的知识,原
来还有这么多不同的收费notice。多谢!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, it's good to hear different opinions.
: It's a forum for discussion and we should work together.
:
: better

avatar
r*n
235
I did further analysis and what you said makes perfect sense now. Thanks for providing this important clue.
There are two type of fees from NVC.
The affidavit of support processing fee (also called AOS fee)
immigrant visa processing fee (IV fee).


【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: jwe,
: 你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
: That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
: 我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
: 以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
: 2008.

avatar
k*o
236
good finding...

the
.
card
sent
the

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I did further analysis and what you said makes perfect sense now. Thanks for providing this important clue.
: There are two type of fees from NVC.
: The affidavit of support processing fee (also called AOS fee)
: immigrant visa processing fee (IV fee).
:

avatar
r*n
238
No, you misunderstood it.
On immihelp website you pointed to, it said: "the IV fee will be sent to the
applicant or agent designated by the applicant on the Form DS-3032."
DS-3032 is not IV fee. DS-3032 only tells NVC where the IV fee bill should be
sent to.


the

【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: According to http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/nvc-aos-fee-iv-fee-payment.html
: DS-3032 就是IV fee。
: 那个阿根廷人说"10 days ago I received from the NVC the Form DS-3032 and the
: affidavit of support fee"
: 就是说他同时收到了AOS fee和IV fee notice.

avatar
j*e
239
多谢澄清。
但是你在顶楼举的这个菲律宾人的例子,也是讲他收到的DS-3032,“Recently, we
received from the NVC various forms for my brother’s immigrant visa
processing, such as Choice of Address and Agent form.”这里的“Choice of
Address and Agent”不就是DS-3032吗?
而且从这个帖子看"http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/134404-when-will-nvc-invoice-my-iv-fee-bill/"
有人说"After DS-3032 confirmation, you can expect one week to get IV fee
bill invoiced"
也就是说DS-3032跟IV fee之间是非常接近的。

the
be

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: No, you misunderstood it.
: On immihelp website you pointed to, it said: "the IV fee will be sent to the
: applicant or agent designated by the applicant on the Form DS-3032."
: DS-3032 is not IV fee. DS-3032 only tells NVC where the IV fee bill should be
: sent to.
:
:
: the

avatar
h*8
240
very appreciated, 赞

for providing this important clue.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I did further analysis and what you said makes perfect sense now. Thanks for providing this important clue.
: There are two type of fees from NVC.
: The affidavit of support processing fee (also called AOS fee)
: immigrant visa processing fee (IV fee).
:

avatar
h*8
241
re
avatar
p*e
242
弱问一声:
什么人才会收到这样的通知?如果是自己办的,也会收到么?
谢谢!
avatar
r*n
243
Now I look back to this post and I think NVC notice is a good indicator of
future movement. In this summer I verified an Indian NVC notice of 4/15/2008
(credible source), but some other Indian folks claimed they got NVC notice
with PD June 2008. Maybe these guys are also credible, but I never verified
with them personally.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
t*1
244
this summer,2010summer吧,那您的意思是下个月完全有可能前进到2008年6月左右?

2008
notice
verified

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Now I look back to this post and I think NVC notice is a good indicator of
: future movement. In this summer I verified an Indian NVC notice of 4/15/2008
: (credible source), but some other Indian folks claimed they got NVC notice
: with PD June 2008. Maybe these guys are also credible, but I never verified
: with them personally.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
r*n
245
yes, 2010 summer.
I think in the next two months, it should be able to reach 2008.06.
after two bulletins, NVC will start sending out NVC notices again (they send
notices in March-June). I bet anything they will send notices to PD as late
as 2009.06.

【在 t******1 的大作中提到】
: this summer,2010summer吧,那您的意思是下个月完全有可能前进到2008年6月左右?
:
: 2008
: notice
: verified

avatar
f*s
246
火箭,PD 12/2008什么时候能current?
avatar
a*m
247
顺路请大牛给估计一下,08年9月的PD,大概什么时候能交I-485?
avatar
y*z
248
Are we all supposed to receive the NVC fee notice? I have moved a few times
since my I140 (perm pd is 05/09/08) got approved, waiting to submit 485.
Will this notice send to the employer or my personal address?

【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: jwe,
: 你的选择性相信是unreal。因为你找到的那个例子不是NVC processing fee notice.
: That's Form DS-3032 and the affidavit of support fee.
: http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/80023.pdf
: 我本人5/23收到了Immigrant Visa Application Processing Fee Bill Invoice。 所
: 以我知道它不是Form DS-3032,也不是 affidavit of support fee。My PD is 2/20/
: 2008.

avatar
S*r
249
你是交485的 不归NVC管
除非你回国等CP 这样才能收到NVC的收费通知

times

【在 y**z 的大作中提到】
: Are we all supposed to receive the NVC fee notice? I have moved a few times
: since my I140 (perm pd is 05/09/08) got approved, waiting to submit 485.
: Will this notice send to the employer or my personal address?

avatar
r*n
250
Guys, breaking news!!!
NVC started sending fee notices again! Today we have a confirmed case of
July 2008! I think EB2 CI will move forward big time in the next few VBs!
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processi

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
S*r
251
So VB will reach July 2008 in next 6 months?

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Guys, breaking news!!!
: NVC started sending fee notices again! Today we have a confirmed case of
: July 2008! I think EB2 CI will move forward big time in the next few VBs!
: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processi
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
r*n
252
definitely.
I think VB will reach July-Dec.2008 in the next two VBs if I am not wrong.

【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: So VB will reach July 2008 in next 6 months?
avatar
S*r
253
If you read the original thread, the attorney also urged people not to "
slice the information too thin" here. I agree with him: perhaps even DOS
doesn't know how many demands are out there waiting for submitting I-485.
All they can do is best estimate it.
But still, if they start to send out NVC fee bills for PD on July-08, it is
definitely a positive sign.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: definitely.
: I think VB will reach July-Dec.2008 in the next two VBs if I am not wrong.

avatar
y*r
254
Re!到达12月2008之后就要倒退了吗
avatar
c*4
255
It's great news. thanks.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Guys, breaking news!!!
: NVC started sending fee notices again! Today we have a confirmed case of
: July 2008! I think EB2 CI will move forward big time in the next few VBs!
: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processi
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
N*r
256
Thatt is a conservative estimation (reach to June or July 20008, and then
wait to see what next move is?) based on the current situation. Is it?
avatar
N*r
257
Thatt is a conservative estimation (reach to June or July 20008, and then
wait to see what next move is?) based on the current situation. Is it?
avatar
S*r
258
I remember Rocketsfan made a call that VB will move to Mar-08 in summer 2011
based upon the NVC fee notice. You can probably still find his prediction
here in this thread. No offense to him but I think he read too much into
this kind of information. VB didn't reach Mar08 untill a couple of weeks ago
. The bottom line is no one can accurately predict it even it's Mr.O. Why?
cuz no one knows how many real demands are out there at this point.
Now back to your question. Will VB retrogress in the future? Someone will
say yes cuz Mr.O said so. But I think it's still up in the air cuz it's
still a question mark whether Mr.O will collect enough I-485s as a result of
VB movements lately. If he ends up with less demands than he thought,
retrogressing VB will the last thing he wanna do.

【在 y**********r 的大作中提到】
: Re!到达12月2008之后就要倒退了吗
avatar
r*n
259
yes, it is a conservative estimation.
Also one thing I want to point out:
usually NVC send out notices in batches month by month after the monthly VB.
This exactly what happened in April-June. NVC sent notices after each
release of VB in April, May and June.This time it was sent right after the
release of Dec.VB.
although we only see July 2008 in this batch, it's very likely they may send
out more notices in the next month.That's why I predict it may reach Dec.
2008 in the next two or three VBs.
Ron didn't want to damage his reputation and he wants to be conservative.
From my experience, NVC notice is such a strong indicator and I am almost
certain PD will reach Oct.-Dec.2008 in the coming months.
Guys, hang in there! good luck to everybody! Happy Thanksgiving!

【在 N*******r 的大作中提到】
: Thatt is a conservative estimation (reach to June or July 20008, and then
: wait to see what next move is?) based on the current situation. Is it?

avatar
r*n
260
yes, I predicted March 2008 in this summer. Although PD didn't reach March
2008 in September, it reached March 2008 in this December, just some time
lag.
I think NVC notice is such a strong indicator! it definitely points out the
future movement! although some time lag may happen!
cheer up and good luck to folks with 2008-2011 PDs.

2011
ago
of

【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: I remember Rocketsfan made a call that VB will move to Mar-08 in summer 2011
: based upon the NVC fee notice. You can probably still find his prediction
: here in this thread. No offense to him but I think he read too much into
: this kind of information. VB didn't reach Mar08 untill a couple of weeks ago
: . The bottom line is no one can accurately predict it even it's Mr.O. Why?
: cuz no one knows how many real demands are out there at this point.
: Now back to your question. Will VB retrogress in the future? Someone will
: say yes cuz Mr.O said so. But I think it's still up in the air cuz it's
: still a question mark whether Mr.O will collect enough I-485s as a result of
: VB movements lately. If he ends up with less demands than he thought,

avatar
c*l
261
顶一个,火箭的帖子总是鼓舞人心.
avatar
y*r
262
;)
avatar
N*r
263
Agree, it really depends on how many demands received recently.
Once VB reaches to June or July in Jan. 2012 hopefully, it will crawl again
in Feb and March even April until the SO season comes. Last year the season
started in April.
avatar
y*r
264
;)
avatar
M*U
265
如果真的如此,2012到09底很有希望呀!10年PD还是有希望13年排到的!

Agree, it really depends on how many demands received recently.Once VB
reaches to June o........
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.28

【在 N*******r 的大作中提到】
: Agree, it really depends on how many demands received recently.
: Once VB reaches to June or July in Jan. 2012 hopefully, it will crawl again
: in Feb and March even April until the SO season comes. Last year the season
: started in April.

avatar
N*r
266
Only one pre-condition, the SO is bigger enough for Eb2 - 30K or more like
this year.
And, 09 PD number is the lowest in recent yrs. 10 PD definitely could see
current in FY13.
Another possible factor is HR3012 which can speed up the process too.
avatar
y*r
267
希望如此,等着下月排期了。

【在 M**U 的大作中提到】
: 如果真的如此,2012到09底很有希望呀!10年PD还是有希望13年排到的!
:
: Agree, it really depends on how many demands received recently.Once VB
: reaches to June o........
: ★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.28

avatar
l*i
268
不是吧 期望值只到7月?
3个月大踏步 我寻思还能到09年呢

【在 y**********r 的大作中提到】
: 希望如此,等着下月排期了。
avatar
y*r
269
希望到09,不过谁知道会不会在明年三月倒退呢

【在 l****i 的大作中提到】
: 不是吧 期望值只到7月?
: 3个月大踏步 我寻思还能到09年呢

avatar
a*x
270
俺,俺,俺

【在 y**********r 的大作中提到】
: 希望到09,不过谁知道会不会在明年三月倒退呢
avatar
t*g
271
明年要是能到09年9月就好了
avatar
c*l
272
顶火箭!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Guys, breaking news!!!
: NVC started sending fee notices again! Today we have a confirmed case of
: July 2008! I think EB2 CI will move forward big time in the next few VBs!
: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processi
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
y*r
273
Re

【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: 明年要是能到09年9月就好了
avatar
s*h
274
顶一下!看了火箭兄的帖子总是感觉热血沸腾。呵呵!
avatar
r*n
275
I believe the PD will move to 2010 in this summer.
Many Indians have received NVC notice in the fist half of 2009. Several
months ago we were talking about PD movement to April 2008, but it turns out
the reality is even more opmistic than our expecation. I would say even the
prediction based on NVC notice is kind of conservative. I predict the PD
will move to 2010 in this summer.

notice
1989.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
: and PD movement.
: I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
: to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
: They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
: several months.
: I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
: online.
: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
: In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she had PD of 1989.

avatar
S*r
276
我刚刚还在另外一个贴深情祝福你呢
你那事整的咋样啦?

out
the

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I believe the PD will move to 2010 in this summer.
: Many Indians have received NVC notice in the fist half of 2009. Several
: months ago we were talking about PD movement to April 2008, but it turns out
: the reality is even more opmistic than our expecation. I would say even the
: prediction based on NVC notice is kind of conservative. I predict the PD
: will move to 2010 in this summer.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
m*o
277
PD
will move to 2010 in this summer.
done deal!
avatar
l*o
278
火箭饭也出来了。希望如你所说呦。
avatar
l*n
279
after summer?

out
the

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I believe the PD will move to 2010 in this summer.
: Many Indians have received NVC notice in the fist half of 2009. Several
: months ago we were talking about PD movement to April 2008, but it turns out
: the reality is even more opmistic than our expecation. I would say even the
: prediction based on NVC notice is kind of conservative. I predict the PD
: will move to 2010 in this summer.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
z*o
280
希望如此,
借大家吉言,
祝大家都早绿!
avatar
B*g
281
hoho, ding
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31528621_3.html
发信人: Beijing (中国万岁,北京加油), 信区: EB23
标 题: 俺尼玛也预测一把
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 16 10:39:00 2011, 美东)
对不对你们都给我发包子吧。
2-3月前排期进到2009/7/1,5-6月排期会进到2010/1/1,年底之前EB2C就会C。

out
the

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I believe the PD will move to 2010 in this summer.
: Many Indians have received NVC notice in the fist half of 2009. Several
: months ago we were talking about PD movement to April 2008, but it turns out
: the reality is even more opmistic than our expecation. I would say even the
: prediction based on NVC notice is kind of conservative. I predict the PD
: will move to 2010 in this summer.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
r*n
282
I would say in this summer or after this summer.
EB2 shouldn't wait for more than 2-3 years in the future.
EB2 is individuals with exceptional skills, why should USA make these guys
wait for too long? It doesn't make any sense. I think from the future they
will control the waiting time within 2-3 years.

【在 l****n 的大作中提到】
: after summer?
:
: out
: the

avatar
r*n
283
Thanks for your wishes!
Finally they filed my 485 after fighting for 1 month! It's such a pain to
deal with these guys. I hope it can go through. Life is not easy.

【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 我刚刚还在另外一个贴深情祝福你呢
: 你那事整的咋样啦?
:
: out
: the

avatar
B*g
284
cong

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for your wishes!
: Finally they filed my 485 after fighting for 1 month! It's such a pain to
: deal with these guys. I hope it can go through. Life is not easy.

avatar
a*a
285
Cong!
avatar
a*x
286
俺觉着你的来福够一级了

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for your wishes!
: Finally they filed my 485 after fighting for 1 month! It's such a pain to
: deal with these guys. I hope it can go through. Life is not easy.

avatar
h*1
287
Right, right, right, Absolutely right! Ding Ding Ding until you high
Bozi chichichi highhighigh

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: hoho, ding
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31528621_3.html
: 发信人: Beijing (中国万岁,北京加油), 信区: EB23
: 标 题: 俺尼玛也预测一把
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 16 10:39:00 2011, 美东)
: 对不对你们都给我发包子吧。
: 2-3月前排期进到2009/7/1,5-6月排期会进到2010/1/1,年底之前EB2C就会C。
:
: out
: the

avatar
c*l
288
Congratulations Rocketsfan.
Take it easy now and take a breathe. Life will move on.

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for your wishes!
: Finally they filed my 485 after fighting for 1 month! It's such a pain to
: deal with these guys. I hope it can go through. Life is not easy.

avatar
c*l
289
Hope so.
Let's put our fingers crossed.

out
the

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I believe the PD will move to 2010 in this summer.
: Many Indians have received NVC notice in the fist half of 2009. Several
: months ago we were talking about PD movement to April 2008, but it turns out
: the reality is even more opmistic than our expecation. I would say even the
: prediction based on NVC notice is kind of conservative. I predict the PD
: will move to 2010 in this summer.
:
: notice
: 1989.

avatar
W*t
290
hats off to rocketsfan!!!
今天看来, 你在11月所作预测无比精准!!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: definitely.
: I think VB will reach July-Dec.2008 in the next two VBs if I am not wrong.

avatar
r*n
291
Yes, my prediction of VB several months were accurate! It reached and passed
Dec.2008 as what I predicted.

VB.
send

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, it is a conservative estimation.
: Also one thing I want to point out:
: usually NVC send out notices in batches month by month after the monthly VB.
: This exactly what happened in April-June. NVC sent notices after each
: release of VB in April, May and June.This time it was sent right after the
: release of Dec.VB.
: although we only see July 2008 in this batch, it's very likely they may send
: out more notices in the next month.That's why I predict it may reach Dec.
: 2008 in the next two or three VBs.
: Ron didn't want to damage his reputation and he wants to be conservative.

avatar
B*g
292
把下个月预测了,哈哈

passed

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, my prediction of VB several months were accurate! It reached and passed
: Dec.2008 as what I predicted.
:
: VB.
: send

avatar
n*s
293
Big cong!

【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for your wishes!
: Finally they filed my 485 after fighting for 1 month! It's such a pain to
: deal with these guys. I hope it can go through. Life is not easy.

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