网友prm2008算出FY2013的SpillOver是8639# EB23 - 劳工卡
P*6
1 楼
EB1 spillover in Fiscal Year 2013 Like this thread?
Posted by prm2008 on Trackiit
I have made a high level calculation and came up with an EB1 spillover
prediction of 8,639 visas in Fiscal Year 2013. Analysis is shown below --
let's try to make this better so I appreciate any and all feedback!
I have broken out EB1 Usage in FY 2013 into two parts:
1) Current inventory: 13,905 pending inventory (from USCIS's pending
inventory report as of Oct 4th) divided by 85% (assuming 15% of all EB1
approvals are Consular Processing) = 16,359
2) Future inventory: 1,671 EB1 applications each month from Oct-2012 to June
-2013 = 15,042
2(a) Average of July-Aug-September EB1 inventory is 1,421 (from USCIS's
pending inventory report as of Oct 4th)
2(b) Adjusting this number for Consular Processing, we get 1,671 EB1
applications per month
2(c) So I am predicting that 1,671 new EB1 applications will come in every
month. This assumes that all July-Aug-Sep 2012 PD cases are reflected in the
USCIS inventory (i.e. all who were eligible to apply have applied by Oct
4th), which doesn't feel like a very aggressive assumption.
2(d) I am multiplying 1,671 by 9 months based on the assumption that it
takes at least 3 months to adjudicate a 485/CP case. Which means applicants
from July-Aug-Sep 2013 should not be considered (because they will consume
next year's quota) and we get to 15,042 as the future inventory that will
consume a visa in FY 2013.
3) Adding up #1 (16,359) and #2 (15,042) gives us 31,401
4) Quota is 40,040 so we are left with 8,639 visas that will spill over to
EB2 (mostly India)
Let me know your thoughts. I understand this analysis is very high level and
so the purpose is to make it better by getting some feedback.
Posted by prm2008 on Trackiit
I have made a high level calculation and came up with an EB1 spillover
prediction of 8,639 visas in Fiscal Year 2013. Analysis is shown below --
let's try to make this better so I appreciate any and all feedback!
I have broken out EB1 Usage in FY 2013 into two parts:
1) Current inventory: 13,905 pending inventory (from USCIS's pending
inventory report as of Oct 4th) divided by 85% (assuming 15% of all EB1
approvals are Consular Processing) = 16,359
2) Future inventory: 1,671 EB1 applications each month from Oct-2012 to June
-2013 = 15,042
2(a) Average of July-Aug-September EB1 inventory is 1,421 (from USCIS's
pending inventory report as of Oct 4th)
2(b) Adjusting this number for Consular Processing, we get 1,671 EB1
applications per month
2(c) So I am predicting that 1,671 new EB1 applications will come in every
month. This assumes that all July-Aug-Sep 2012 PD cases are reflected in the
USCIS inventory (i.e. all who were eligible to apply have applied by Oct
4th), which doesn't feel like a very aggressive assumption.
2(d) I am multiplying 1,671 by 9 months based on the assumption that it
takes at least 3 months to adjudicate a 485/CP case. Which means applicants
from July-Aug-Sep 2013 should not be considered (because they will consume
next year's quota) and we get to 15,042 as the future inventory that will
consume a visa in FY 2013.
3) Adding up #1 (16,359) and #2 (15,042) gives us 31,401
4) Quota is 40,040 so we are left with 8,639 visas that will spill over to
EB2 (mostly India)
Let me know your thoughts. I understand this analysis is very high level and
so the purpose is to make it better by getting some feedback.
