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讨价还价才刚刚开始
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讨价还价才刚刚开始# EB23 - 劳工卡
l*7
1
re 题目
还想问下 如果extend 之后total是有29个月么? 谢谢个位兄弟姐妹了!
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r*g
2
任何一群人放任何一个指标,都有一个分布。在分布里哪里都正常。何必因为自己没在
right tail 悲愤呢?
智力,学业大家不甘心,要是BSO相貌,身高,体重,你还会不会不甘心?
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H*y
3
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SavageSG (自费留学-->自费海归->美分党) 于 (Sun Sep 5 00:28:08 2010, 美东) 提到:
我手动查到了我case number前后一共16个pp case。
A. 大概是10%的case直接file 140 + PP;
B. TSC每个月大概收到375份140;
C. 如果直接PP和追加PP一半一半的话,TSC在给定时间内其实也就30个案子待处理。
规律如下
1. 收到PP的第二天有LUD。
2. 一般来说PP后4-5天会有第二个LUD,时间一般在下午1点之后。 表明案子已经
assign给了移民官。几乎所有案子在第二个LUD的那天都会有结果。如果被批的话,当
天晚上(第二天凌晨)网上状态就会更新为案子已批,notice寄出。如果被rfe的话,
相应时间会显示变成了request for evidence。如果第二次LUD后第二天网上还是现实
initial review,基本上是被NOID了。
3. 如果你运气不好的话,直到第11,12天才会有第二个LUD。但是案子被批准的可能性
与多快被process没有关系。
4. 8月23日至8月30日我统计的PPcase (16个),被批的大概一半,其他的一半。
祝福大家好运。
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copolymer (copolymer) 于 (Tue Feb 1 14:29:55 2011, 美东) 提到:
sigh
根据这个规律
我现在正在等noid
求模板

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zimmer (zimmer) 于 (Tue Feb 1 14:54:58 2011, 美东) 提到:
唉,很可能我也在等NOID。求模板加祝福。
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summerlotus (夏之莲) 于 (Tue Feb 1 15:33:54 2011, 美东) 提到:
I searched two weekdays in Nov. 2010,
total number of 140 petition is about 200.
This number matches better what sanguo (小牛向前冲) said below.
So far, about 20 pp (initial pp plus pp later), 2 of them pending, 2 denied,
all others (16) approved.
Maybe so far PPed cases are among the strongest, so that is why the approval
rate is kind of high.
Receipts
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wantAbaby (LivingToLove) 于 (Tue Feb 1 17:44:41 2011, 美东) 提到:
赞!新手问一下,为什么只统计TSC的,PP只能送TSC吗?
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maxmartin (Jake) 于 (Wed Feb 2 14:26:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
3 days passed, still waiting for the second soft LUD
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zyy (无聊) 于 (Wed Feb 2 17:49:43 2011, 美东) 提到:
看来大多数还是不pp的,我还是别折这个腾了
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shabby (waste not) 于 (Wed Feb 2 19:29:33 2011, 美东) 提到:
我也是两天前第二个lud之后就没有动静了,但不会全都是noid啊,这个帖子下面都有
两三个了,rfe应该是最大比例把?
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Wed Feb 2 20:26:57 2011, 美东) 提到:
多谢研究结果,恐怕我也得准备对付noid了
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DVD209 (dvd209) 于 (Thu Feb 3 15:33:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
how to find soft LUD?
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nixul (nixul) 于 (Thu Feb 3 15:59:08 2011, 美东) 提到:
需要在你查状态的网页上注册一个帐号,然后把case添加到你的帐号里面,就能看见
LUD了
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zimmer (zimmer) 于 (Thu Feb 3 20:06:34 2011, 美东) 提到:
刚收到Email说I140批了。
我是1月18号网申,21号PP寄到第一次LUD,31号第二次LUD,然后直到今天2月3号下午
第三次LUD。这几天一直在担心,还好很幸运没有符合这个规律。也希望第二次LUD后没
消息的朋友放宽心,好消息会来的。
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Thu Feb 3 20:35:40 2011, 美东) 提到:
恭喜恭喜,我的是24号RD,31号第二次LUD,现在还没动静,这心一直吊着呢,尤其看
到楼主的分析:(
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copolymer (copolymer) 于 (Thu Feb 3 21:04:05 2011, 美东) 提到:
26 RD
31 SECOND LUD
NO MESSAGE....
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maxmartin (Jake) 于 (Thu Feb 3 21:06:49 2011, 美东) 提到:
mine is 28rd
31 first lud
no message
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Thu Feb 3 21:15:42 2011, 美东) 提到:
希望我们大家都好运,能收到TSC的新年礼物 :)
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maxmartin (Jake) 于 (Thu Feb 3 21:22:25 2011, 美东) 提到:
congratulations, any background information to share Thanks.
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huaxiangji (huaxiangji) 于 (Thu Feb 3 21:40:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
01/27/2011 First update
01/31/2011 second update
No message till now. TSC
Bless all of us.
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youyou (^右右^心里哇凉哇凉的) 于 (Thu Feb 3 21:53:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
跟我的一模一样啊
预感很不好中...
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Thu Feb 3 23:23:19 2011, 美东) 提到:
update
刚刚(11:13pm)收到email,批了。跟zimmer同喜
看来close两天确实影响了速度,让我们大伙的心里可是七上八下的。希望同学们都能在大年初一收到USCIS的礼物
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shabby (waste not) 于 (Thu Feb 3 23:26:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
我看了楼上的帖子赶紧一查,也批了,eb1a I140, RD 1/24; LUD 1/31, approved 2/3
lz你这理论吓死人阿
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steedge (hehe) 于 (Thu Feb 3 23:33:16 2011, 美东) 提到:
我也是,
27 first LUD,
31 second LUD,
然后就没消息了
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Thu Feb 3 23:48:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
你这timeline跟我的一模一样啊。大家同喜
我觉得楼主的理论还是很有道理。不过这次是因为close了两天,其实还是基本符合的
。不过怎样,批了就好
/3
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Thu Feb 3 23:49:28 2011, 美东) 提到:
好消息明天就来了
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spss0505 (spss0505) 于 (Fri Feb 4 09:41:02 2011, 美东) 提到:
我是追加的PP,原以为也符合这个规律,所以看到1/31号第二次LUD后没消息,认为肯
定被NOID,连年都懒得过了。没想到昨天晚上临上床前收到了短讯息说批了。感谢神。
TIMELINE如下:
RD: 11/22/2010
Priority date: 11/23/2010
Notice date 11/29/2010
LUD 12/01/2010
soft lud 12/03/2010
soft lud 12/09/2010
sent out PP on 1/22/2011
hard LUD 1/24 pp received
PP receipt received on 1/28
soft lud on 1/31/2011
approved on 2/3/2011
message, email received same day
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NJ08809 (NewFace) 于 (Fri Feb 4 09:51:34 2011, 美东) 提到:
大概是因为关闭了两天的原因吧,恭喜
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eccentric (eccentric) 于 (Fri Feb 4 11:13:19 2011, 美东) 提到:
congrats!
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youyou (^右右^心里哇凉哇凉的) 于 (Fri Feb 4 11:17:07 2011, 美东) 提到:
cong
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maxmartin (Jake) 于 (Fri Feb 4 11:20:44 2011, 美东) 提到:
just found out PP money was deducted from my bank account, think they are
reviewing my case now. Keep finger crossed
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huaxiangji (huaxiangji) 于 (Fri Feb 4 12:46:19 2011, 美东) 提到:
Congratulations! Bless
will give out my case documents if approved
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huaxiangji (huaxiangji) 于 (Fri Feb 4 22:33:18 2011, 美东) 提到:
希望我们大家都好运,能收到TSC的新年礼物 :)
赫赫 沾沾NJ08809的喜气
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nixul (nixul) 于 (Fri Feb 4 22:38:31 2011, 美东) 提到:
我的RD 是 1/25/2011
LUD是 1/31/2011
今天批了
楼主的总结还是蛮精准到位的
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reelin (cast) 于 (Tue Mar 8 14:50:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
How do you know a case is PP or not? Thanks.
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y*n
4
WASHINGTON — President Obama and allies are ramping up efforts to apply
political pressure to House Republicans over immigration.
Obama plotted strategy Wednesday with Democratic members of the
Congressional Hispanic Caucus, while his team released a report saying "
common sense immigration reform" would have major economic benefits.
"It's time for the House to act," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.
The Democratic-run Senate has passed an immigration bill, but the issue
faces an uphill fight in the House, where members of the Republican majority
describe the Senate plan as an amnesty bill.
Rep. Ruben Hinojosa, D-Texas, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus,
said members asked Obama to travel the country in support of an immigration
overhaul.
"We believe that the president is giving consideration to going across the
country and explaining to the American people the benefits that will come
from passage of this legislation," Hinojosa said. "We welcome that."
The all-Democratic Hispanic caucus and Obama discussed voting rights,
implementation of the health care bill and diversity in appointments.
Though Carney said Obama seeks a bipartisan immigration bill from Congress,
there is a very political aspect to the debate: the possibility that
Democrats will try to use the immigration issue against Republicans in the
2014 congressional elections if the House doesn't pass a bill.
Republicans have struggled with the quickly growing Hispanic vote in recent
years, which contributed to Mitt Romney's loss to Obama in the 2012
presidential election.
Some House Republicans say the proposed bill — which includes a pathway to
citizenship for those in the country illegally — would be ineffective and
amounts to amnesty for lawbreakers.
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said he agrees the immigration system
should be improved, but the emphasis should be on border security. He
challenged the comprehensive nature of the Senate bill, saying, "We believe
that a common sense, step-by-step approach is the right way."
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., told radio host Sean Hannity that
the immigration system is broken, but "a much more deliberative approach" is
needed to fix it.
Cantor said new legislation must have "definite matrixes" to make sure the
government follows through on border security.
In the coming weeks, Obama administration officials will promote the support
of business, law enforcement and local government officials for a new
immigration bill. Carney said, "We are on this every day."
Organizing for Action, the political committee forged from the remnants of
Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, urged its members to lobby GOP members of
Congress on immigration.
In a report issued Wednesday, Obama's economic team said an overhaul of the
immigration system would grow the economy, create more jobs, increase worker
productivity and decrease budget deficits.
"The economic costs of inaction are simply too high to delay," Carney said.
In a statement on the meeting with Hispanic lawmakers, the White House said
Obama "emphasized that during the next few weeks, members of his Cabinet and
Senior Administration officials will bring this economic argument to key
stakeholders, including business leaders, state and local lawmakers, law
enforcement officials, faith and evangelical leaders, and the American
people to call upon the House to do the right thing on immigration."
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y*i
6
大家不忿的不是BSO,某些BSO的人要顺便鄙视别人。
杀人不过头点地啊。
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y*n
7
In the coming weeks, Obama administration officials will promote the support
of business, law enforcement and local government officials for a new
immigration bill. Carney said, "We are on this every day."
Organizing for Action, the political committee forged from the remnants of
Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, urged its members to lobby GOP members of
Congress on immigration.
In a report issued Wednesday, Obama's economic team said an overhaul of the
immigration system would grow the economy, create more jobs, increase worker
productivity and decrease budget deficits.
"The economic costs of inaction are simply too high to delay," Carney said.
In a statement on the meeting with Hispanic lawmakers, the White House said
Obama "emphasized that during the next few weeks, members of his Cabinet and
Senior Administration officials will bring this economic argument to key
stakeholders, including business leaders, state and local lawmakers, law
enforcement officials, faith and evangelical leaders, and the American
people to call upon the House to do the right thing on immigration."
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b*d
9
赞你的乐观精神。不过现实很残酷。
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A*Y
10
这个如果不写出来但是私底下进行,还真说不好。但是一旦写出来。。。

support
of
the
worker

【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: In the coming weeks, Obama administration officials will promote the support
: of business, law enforcement and local government officials for a new
: immigration bill. Carney said, "We are on this every day."
: Organizing for Action, the political committee forged from the remnants of
: Obama's 2012 re-election campaign, urged its members to lobby GOP members of
: Congress on immigration.
: In a report issued Wednesday, Obama's economic team said an overhaul of the
: immigration system would grow the economy, create more jobs, increase worker
: productivity and decrease budget deficits.
: "The economic costs of inaction are simply too high to delay," Carney said.

avatar
x*y
11

majority
Caucus,
HOUSE的 GOP基本是总统赞成什么,他们就反对什么,基本没鸟过。

【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
: WASHINGTON — President Obama and allies are ramping up efforts to apply
: political pressure to House Republicans over immigration.
: Obama plotted strategy Wednesday with Democratic members of the
: Congressional Hispanic Caucus, while his team released a report saying "
: common sense immigration reform" would have major economic benefits.
: "It's time for the House to act," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.
: The Democratic-run Senate has passed an immigration bill, but the issue
: faces an uphill fight in the House, where members of the Republican majority
: describe the Senate plan as an amnesty bill.
: Rep. Ruben Hinojosa, D-Texas, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus,

avatar
m*k
12
奥巴马玩公共演讲是高手,他并不怕众议院共和党给他来个“你越鼓吹我越不过”,因
为奥巴马并没有任何连任压力,他也不怕CIR不过。
他只需把口水仗在媒体上全面打起来,民主党长期来看就赢了,打得时间越长,共和党
在年轻世代中死得越彻底
所以我估计最后抗不住华尔街、硅谷、大农场这些金主压力的还是博纳。再有布什麦凯
恩等老人和瑞恩、儒比傲等新人的推动,Hastert rule该放弃就放弃,反正博纳之前已
经放弃过这个不正式的rule不止一次了
从瑞恩的角度说,他必须得先给参院版使点绊才能显出他的英明伟大;否则参院版直接
过了,他在党内就没法和儒比傲竞争总统提名了
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A*Y
13
CIR十年之内应当会过,但不是今年。共和党做出昨天的表态也不是一时心血来潮,我
们所有人想到的各种可能性共和党这么多智囊会想不到?好好工作吧。

【在 m******k 的大作中提到】
: 奥巴马玩公共演讲是高手,他并不怕众议院共和党给他来个“你越鼓吹我越不过”,因
: 为奥巴马并没有任何连任压力,他也不怕CIR不过。
: 他只需把口水仗在媒体上全面打起来,民主党长期来看就赢了,打得时间越长,共和党
: 在年轻世代中死得越彻底
: 所以我估计最后抗不住华尔街、硅谷、大农场这些金主压力的还是博纳。再有布什麦凯
: 恩等老人和瑞恩、儒比傲等新人的推动,Hastert rule该放弃就放弃,反正博纳之前已
: 经放弃过这个不正式的rule不止一次了
: 从瑞恩的角度说,他必须得先给参院版使点绊才能显出他的英明伟大;否则参院版直接
: 过了,他在党内就没法和儒比傲竞争总统提名了

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