g*s
2 楼
用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
c*s
3 楼
我加了
b*7
4 楼
拭目以待，赞
f*r
5 楼
EB3 4 months at most.
Didn't you see this
"Also EB3 China dates are currently same as EB3 ROW. Due to this increased
demand, dates for EB3 China could either slow or retrogress in the next few
months."
O probably just applies a plant offset to EB3ROW to derive EB3C cutoff so to
him, eb3c is moving along with eb3row.
There is not a lot room for EB3ROW to move ahead and there is still a few
months left in the fiscal year.
In
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
: EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
: around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
: EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
: June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
: Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
: 2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
Didn't you see this
"Also EB3 China dates are currently same as EB3 ROW. Due to this increased
demand, dates for EB3 China could either slow or retrogress in the next few
months."
O probably just applies a plant offset to EB3ROW to derive EB3C cutoff so to
him, eb3c is moving along with eb3row.
There is not a lot room for EB3ROW to move ahead and there is still a few
months left in the fiscal year.
In
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
: EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
: around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
: EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
: June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
: Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
: 2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
g*s
6 楼
我的模型没有考虑uscis的prediction。
EB3 row cutoff 不是06/01/2013吗？
EB3 row cutoff 不是06/01/2013吗？
f*r
7 楼
去年四月到2012年十月 然后就退了。2013不会比2012年少太多吧。
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 我的模型没有考虑uscis的prediction。
: EB3 row cutoff 不是06/01/2013吗？
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 我的模型没有考虑uscis的prediction。
: EB3 row cutoff 不是06/01/2013吗？
y*8
8 楼
赞乐观。
S*i
9 楼
这么乐观，不报希望
b*i
10 楼
楼主不如用你的径向基函数算算下期Powerball开什么号。
d*p
11 楼
同求powerball,megamillion也行啊，下期也少不了太多:)
b*g
12 楼
托你吉言，不过可能性不高。
h*e
13 楼
赞“时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法”！
g*s
14 楼
根据我模型得出的结论反推奥本的意图，
1. 重点处理eb3, eb2慢进，eb3快进到2012年中，因能降级都降了，不会出现新的大批
降级
2. 之后几个月，仍重点处理eb3,此间eb2, eb3慢进 （如果“因能降级都降了，不会出
现新的大批降级”成立，根据现有eb3库存，更本不会倒退）
3. 之后，重点处理eb2, eb2大放水，因为很多已经降级，轻松放到2012，
今年下半年（接近财年结束）eb2,eb3同步到2012年10月左右。
以上是奥本本财年的performance goal, 做不到拿不到bonus。
1. 重点处理eb3, eb2慢进，eb3快进到2012年中，因能降级都降了，不会出现新的大批
降级
2. 之后几个月，仍重点处理eb3,此间eb2, eb3慢进 （如果“因能降级都降了，不会出
现新的大批降级”成立，根据现有eb3库存，更本不会倒退）
3. 之后，重点处理eb2, eb2大放水，因为很多已经降级，轻松放到2012，
今年下半年（接近财年结束）eb2,eb3同步到2012年10月左右。
以上是奥本本财年的performance goal, 做不到拿不到bonus。
c*d
15 楼
我是EB2 NIW 2011年1月的PD，您预测什么时候能交485？
k*k
16 楼
降级，现在就能交
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: 我是EB2 NIW 2011年1月的PD，您预测什么时候能交485？
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: 我是EB2 NIW 2011年1月的PD，您预测什么时候能交485？
c*d
17 楼
NIW不能降级 :(
【在 k******k 的大作中提到】
: 降级，现在就能交
【在 k******k 的大作中提到】
: 降级，现在就能交
z*3
18 楼
赞lz的时间序列分析+径向基网络算法，希望真如模型一样持续前进！
In
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
: EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
: around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
: EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
: June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
: Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
: 2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
In
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
: EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
: around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
: EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
: June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
: Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
: 2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
a*1
19 楼
same here ;(
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: 我是EB2 NIW 2011年1月的PD，您预测什么时候能交485？
【在 c*******d 的大作中提到】
: 我是EB2 NIW 2011年1月的PD，您预测什么时候能交485？
c*2
20 楼
hope this is the case for EB3 :)
as for EB2, I think they might advance quicker by the end of this year.
In
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
: EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
: around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
: EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
: June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
: Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
: 2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
as for EB2, I think they might advance quicker by the end of this year.
In
【在 g****s 的大作中提到】
: 用时间序列分析, 径向基网络算法算了一天，得出一下结论。
: EB3 would advance around 15 months very likely next month. Then advance
: around 4 weeks each month until June this year.
: EB2 advance by approximately 4 weeks each month over the next 4-5 months. In
: June or July this year, EB2 would advance by 2 years to Oct 2012.
: Until the summer of 2015, cutoff for both EB2 and EB3 would be about Oct
: 2012, then keep in same pace after summer.
A*T
21 楼
赞，但愿你的预测是准确的！
s*n
22 楼
eb3不太准啊，需要修正
s*c
23 楼
这位大仙一点也不准。
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