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奥本5月预测ZT# EB23 - 劳工卡
y*0
1
Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (May 18, 2016)
Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the
person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly
anticipated every month. Our access and proximity to Mr. Oppenheim allows us
to provide immediate updates on expected Visa Bulletin movements and we are
proud to be among the first to report.
We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin
predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a
result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr.
Oppenheim has afforded us to get some sense of the movement of the priority
dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa number trends.
Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
No movement is expected in EB-2 and EB-3 China. EB-2 India may move forward
very gradually over the next few months with EB-2 ROW and EB-1 India/China
are expected to have a cutoff date within the last two Visa Bulletins for
the fiscal year (August or September 2016).
General Visa Number Trends
Mr. Oppenheim spent a few minutes to describe the visa number allocation
process and reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context,
especially, the demand for visa numbers is greater because of dependents
being added — each green card application case is, therefore, “larger”
than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes
two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have
children). For example, Mr. Oppenheim has previously indicated that in the
not-so-distant past, each employment-based India case took 1.4 visa numbers
on average while right now, each employment-based India case takes on
average 2.5 visa numbers.
As a result, and in recognition of the additional fact that many EB-3 India
and China candidates are now eligible for porting and are now applying under
the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3, in addition to EB-2
visa numbers, are expected to remain oversubscribed, particularly for Indian
nationals.
He also indicated that there is a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 India
porting cases and the mechanics of the EB-3 to EB-2 porting do not allow
advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa Office. This causes
a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases to “appear” without
advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a result, the Visa Office has to
hold cutoff dates back (or to retrogress) to accommodate such porting case.
Unfortunately, today’s comments by Mr. Oppenheim do not bring much good
news for those hoping for fast cutoff date advancement. Mr. Oppenheim shared
that he sees a significantly higher than normal demand in the employment-
based categories – often two times the historical and expected amount. This
, naturally, causes him to hold back the cutoff dates or, as we say in the
June 2016 Visa Bulletin, to retrogress significantly.
Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “
popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories,
compared to the past years. This high demand also means that there will be
less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories,
such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2
India forward movement.
On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance
the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November
and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge
demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either
slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is
demand turns out to be low).
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based
Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for
movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these
are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a
result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date
movement may change.
EB-1 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current
throughout the fiscal year.
EB-1 India and China. Due to high demand in this category, there is high
likelihood that a cutoff date will be instituted by the September Visa
Bulletin.
EB-2 ROW. Due to high demand, it is possible that this category will have a
cutoff date by the September Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 China. No movement is expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.
EB-2 India. Likely to stay one week ahead of EB-3 India; possible very
gradual forward movement over the next few months.
EB-3 ROW. This category is expected to move forward gradually over the next
months to continue to stimulate “demand”.
EB-3 China. No movement is expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.
EB-3 India. Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date
around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is at the highest
level ever. For the next fiscal year EB-5 is expected to be current for
everyone except EB-5 China (which takes most of the EB-5 immigrant visas).
On Predicting the Visa Bulletin Cutoff Dates
Mr. Oppenheim shared his thoughts on the ability of others outside of his
office to predict reliably the cutoff date movements. He suggested that
while some of the datapoints that go into determining the cutoff dates are
available — demand data, number filings — there is so much more (variables
and data, some of which is impossible to get) that goes into a cutoff date
determination in each visa bulletin that a reliable prediction is impossible
for anyone including, sometimes, the Visa Office of Mr. Oppenheim. There
are many variables that affect the demand. For example, the recent
retrogression of EB-2 India is due to the fact that there are “
extraordinary number” of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases plus an
unexpectedly high demand in EB-2 cases generally. Mr. Oppenheim cannot
predict how many of the EB-3 India candidates will end up porting into EB-2
— as a result, by the time he “sees” an EB-2 India case, he has not
anticipated for it and has to slow down or retrogress EB-2 India to be able
to accommodate EB-2 India applicants with early priority dates.
Conclusion
Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa
cutoff dates over the next few months. We urge EB-2 ROW and EB-1 India/China
applicants to be aware of the possibility of a cutoff date being introduced
for a month or two late in the summer. With respect to EB-2 India and China
, the high demand likely means that there may not be much notable movement
until the new fiscal year begins on October 1, 2016 and the annual visa
number allocations are reset.
avatar
y*0
2
June Visa Bulletin: Explanations for Retrogression
另外一个版本:
May 19, 2016
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provides a monthly visa bulletin "check
in" with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division
. The most recent check in provides insights into some of the unexpected
developments in the June 2016 Visa Bulletin, as well as some predictions for
upcoming visa bulletins. The cutoff dates discussed below are all from the
final action (FA) chart. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (
USCIS) is only allowing the use of the FA chart in June for purposes of
filing an adjustment-of-status application (form I-485).
Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1)
The demand for EB1 worldwide visa numbers continues to be very high. The DOS
cautions that, if the demand levels continue at the current rate, "
corrective action" (i.e. establishment of a cutoff date) may be necessary
before the end of the fiscal year.
Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)
Worldwide and India
The demand for EB2 worldwide is extremely high. As the result of this demand
level, the DOS advises that there will not be any unused numbers available
to shift to EB2 India and China.
The combination of high levels of demand for visa numbers in the EB2 India
category with the lack of excess numbers from EB2 worldwide, made it
necessary to retrogress the EB2 India cutoff date to October 1, 2004. Part
of the EB2 India demand is attributed to EB3 upgrade cases, which are not
visible to the DOS until the visa number is requested. Greater visibility in
this area, according to the DOS, would reduce the need to abruptly
retrogress the cutoff date. The DOS expects that the EB2 India cutoff date
will advance slowly for the rest of the fiscal year, at a pace similar to
the EB3 advancement.
China
The June 2016 Visa Bulletin contains retrogression in the EB2 China category
, as well. The cutoff date for EB2 China moves back to January 1, 2010, as
does EB3 China. Since the cutoff dates for both categories are the same, and
are expected to remain so for the rest of the fiscal year, there will no
longer be a motivation for applicants chargeable to China to downgrade from
EB2 to EB3 in the immediate future.
Employment-Based, Fourth Preference (EB4)
The DOS expects that the FA cutoff date established in the EB4 category for
those chargeable to El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras will remain
unchanged for the rest of the fiscal year. It is also expected that EB4 for
India and Mexico will retrogress to the same January 1, 2010 cutoff date in
the near future. The need for this cutoff date is, in part, due to a lack of
excess numbers that would otherwise be available.
Conclusion
As always, the explanations and insights provided by Mr. Oppenheim are
appreciated. MurthyDotCom will continue to track developments related to the
monthly visa bulletin, and will post updates as new information becomes
available.
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y*0
3
EB1 CHINA 有可能今年有排期
EB-1 India/China are expected to have a cutoff date within the last two Visa
Bulletins for the fiscal year (August or September 2016).
avatar
c*y
4
假如 EB1A 和 EB1B 都有排起了
假如2013的NIW 提交EB1A 140的时候 是不是不能 一起交485了 只能等140批了 才能
relink 2013NIW 来提交485?

Visa

【在 y******0 的大作中提到】
: EB1 CHINA 有可能今年有排期
: EB-1 India/China are expected to have a cutoff date within the last two Visa
: Bulletins for the fiscal year (August or September 2016).

avatar
c*y
5
从奥本的谈话 在他心里 EB2的SO 还是有可能给到中国的 所以去年我们拿到4000 不一
定是他发超控制不了所导致的
The demand for EB2 worldwide is extremely high. As the result of this demand
level, the DOS advises that there will not be any unused numbers available
to shift to EB2 India and China.

highly
us
are

【在 y******0 的大作中提到】
: Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (May 18, 2016)
: Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
: with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
: Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
: known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
: allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the
: person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly
: anticipated every month. Our access and proximity to Mr. Oppenheim allows us
: to provide immediate updates on expected Visa Bulletin movements and we are
: proud to be among the first to report.

avatar
v*a
6
当前2010是真实排期么?
avatar
t*j
7
不是

【在 v********a 的大作中提到】
: 当前2010是真实排期么?
avatar
W*o
8
操你妈的烙印,把人挤兑的都日子不好过,连你妈中国EB1都要有排期了,狗日的烙印

highly
us
are

【在 y******0 的大作中提到】
: Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (May 18, 2016)
: Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
: with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
: Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
: known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
: allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the
: person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly
: anticipated every month. Our access and proximity to Mr. Oppenheim allows us
: to provide immediate updates on expected Visa Bulletin movements and we are
: proud to be among the first to report.

avatar
a*i
9
印度人没有SO的话
排期要奔50年去了...

demand

【在 c****y 的大作中提到】
: 从奥本的谈话 在他心里 EB2的SO 还是有可能给到中国的 所以去年我们拿到4000 不一
: 定是他发超控制不了所导致的
: The demand for EB2 worldwide is extremely high. As the result of this demand
: level, the DOS advises that there will not be any unused numbers available
: to shift to EB2 India and China.
:
: highly
: us
: are

avatar
b*h
10
不是,任何back logged 国家都应该有权分SO, 只不过安当前分法,咱分不到而已。

demand

【在 c****y 的大作中提到】
: 从奥本的谈话 在他心里 EB2的SO 还是有可能给到中国的 所以去年我们拿到4000 不一
: 定是他发超控制不了所导致的
: The demand for EB2 worldwide is extremely high. As the result of this demand
: level, the DOS advises that there will not be any unused numbers available
: to shift to EB2 India and China.
:
: highly
: us
: are

avatar
o*c
11
印度以前1.4,现在2.5。感觉h1b滥用导致直接从印度拖家带口
avatar
w*d
12
看来奥本这次像是数清楚脚指头了,几次三番肯定EB23年内不会再进.
那样,应该是没发超就被控制住了, 左右打脸打不起来.
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