EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
Based on the latest VO information about EB1 as well as latest trackitt data
from Q1/Q2, this is the current status and predictions for EB2.
In summary we think that EB2IC will receive total 37K SOFAD of which ~31K
will go towards backlog reduction. This would mean a dates moving into Apr-
2007 for EB2IC. The best case scenario would be Aug 2007. Worst case would
be Sep 2006.
Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PDCP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat
).
SYA - Same year approvals
R485 - ROW 485 filings in EB2
Summary - EB2 IS GOING TO See 37K SOFAD of which 31K will be utilized
towards backlog reduction and EB2IC dates will move into Apr 2007.
The big drivers behind this are as follows:
1) EB1 50% reduction in demand (confirmed by VO)
2) EB2 50% reduction in "NEW" demand. (confirmed by trackitt data YoY).
The 2010 Approvals saw EB1 and EB2-ROW new demand (i.e. complete new 485
applications) at an unprecedented levels. EB1 received 46K new applications.
EB2-ROW-MP received 31K.
In 2011 however both EB1 and EB2 ROW seem to be receiving 50% NEW demand.
EB2-ROW new demand is resuming its natural rate (after 2010 PERM surge).
Current approval rates indicate EB2 ROW new demand could be upto 50% lower
compared to last year. Also same year approvals hover around 70% for EB1 as
well as EB2-ROW even if the categories are current. So going into 2011 these
two factors will dominate which way SOFAD goes:
Factor 1 - EB1 & EB2-ROW 485 filings compared to 2010 (R485)
Factor 2 - EB1 & EB2 same year approvals (SYA)
we will call them R485 and SYA respectively.
As we said, R485 seem to be at 50%. SYA seem to be at 70%. At those levels
we can see a SOFAD upto 37K (31K towards backlog and dates reaching Apr 2007
).
Please see attached image for various scenarios.
The headwinds for EB2IC are as follows:
- Significant EB1 backlog (7K)
- Significant EB2-ROW-MP backlog (10K)
- Lack of FB spillover in 2011
- EB3->2 conversions
The tailwinds for EB2IC are:
- Low NEW demand for EB1 and EB2 ROW - R485 at 50%.
- SYA historically at 70% which leads to within category spillover.
- EB5 may continue to provide 8-9K SOFAD
- Possible rejections of 140s / 485s
Details
Summary of EB2 Situation in 2011 USCIS Fiscal:
2011 Total Visa Demand - ~61K
2011 Total Visa Availability - ~40K
The explanation of terms:1. Quota - Is the alloted quota of 140000
designated empl. visas for each category and country.
2. Backlog 485 - Is the inventory that includes 485. It doesn't include 7%
PWMBs and 3% portings (i.e. 4-5K per year).
3. 2011 New Demand - Is the additional 485 applications for 2011. As of now
same demand as 2010 is used.
4. 2011 SOFAD - Shows in green how much surplus each category will provide.
If -ve it shows the backlog in that category at the end of Sep 2011.
5. FA recvd - Fall Across Visas Received Within A Category
6. FA Given - Fall Across Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is
Fulfilled
7. FD recvd - Fall Up Down Visas Received From Another Category
8. Spare Visas - These are the total spare visas in a category that can be
used for countries that have hit their limits.
9. IC Quota - India china quota
10 . IC consumption - This is the traditional SOFAD or Total IC consumption
which goes towards clearing IC backlog (esp EB2).
8. FD given - Fall Up Down Visas Remaining After Demand Within Category is
Fulfilled
Assumptions:
0. VP provided correct info in terms of 50% reduction in eB1 demand.
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was
correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the
latest we have is from last year).
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
5. 7% people missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not
included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
6. 3-4K EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011.
7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
8. R485 at 50%
9. SYA at 70%
9. CP allocation factored in demand. So SOFAD is free of CP. From EB2
perspective assumed minimal even otherwise.
Why Didn't We See More SOFAD in 2010?
Those who are wondering how much SOFAD we saw in 2010 and why it was not
more, here is some explanation of what happened.
We expected a SOFAD 33K-53K. Of this 23K was to come from EB2 ROW, 24K EB1
and 6K from EB4/5. In reality India and China received 26.5K. What happened
was EB2-ROW saw PERM processing for 2007-08-09-10 speed up thereby releasing
approx 20K more applications. (Source trackitt data w some statistical
calculations). So the bad news is that;s what prevented overall SOFAD from
being bigger. Unfortunately we may see some of the remaining ROW demand flow
through in 2011 which has the potential to prevent any FA to IC.
Another reason SOFAD was limited was because of EB1, EB1 saw 41K approvals
and only yielded 2K of its own plus 9K from EB5. So EB1 also didn't yield
24K that we thought it would.
Good luck!
Predictions FROM OTHERS
SPEC GURU - Needs to be updated?
Visa Usage in 2011
EB1 - 38,000 + or - 3,000
EB2- Non IC - 26,500 + or - 2,000
EB4 - Full amount + or - zero
EB5 - 2,520 + zero - 1,000
That yields SOFAD of 23,000 and moves the Cut Off Date to mid October 2006
in my model.
That gives a low end figure of 18,000 SOFAD, which moves Cut Off Dates to
mid August 2006 and a high end figure of 29,000 SOFAD, which moves Cut Off
Dates to late December 2006.
I have probably overestimated EB5 usage, so that would increase my forecast
to 24,000 SOFAD, which represents the end of October 2006 to me.
Visa Bulletin Expectation
Although VO has confirmed that there will be a lot of extra visas available
for EB2 IC; they may not necessarily move dates right away. If history is
any indicator they will wait until Jul 2011.
