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Political business cycles in China?

Political business cycles in China?# Economics - 经济

c*y2004-11-18 08:11

1 楼

Barry Naughton recently wrote an open letter to Wen Jiabao in the Foreign Policy magazine.
One of the more interesting things he mentiones is that the current economic heating
actually started in 2001, and it was initiated in preparation for the 16th party
congress in 2002. Do we really have this business cycle in China? 1987/88, yes;
1992/1993, yes; 1997/98?

t*e2004-11-18 08:11

2 楼

don't know for sure, but sounds likely.
Inflation was high in 87/88, and it was probably due to the loosening of price
controls. The overheat in 92/93 should come from the over-reaction to Deng's
talk in the south.

Policy magazine.
heating
party
yes;

【在 c********y 的大作中提到】

: Barry Naughton recently wrote an open letter to Wen Jiabao in the Foreign Policy magazine.
: One of the more interesting things he mentiones is that the current economic heating
: actually started in 2001, and it was initiated in preparation for the 16th party
: congress in 2002. Do we really have this business cycle in China? 1987/88, yes;
: 1992/1993, yes; 1997/98?

c*y2004-11-18 08:11

3 楼

it seems Deng's southern tour was also aimed at the party congress. Do we have
overheating in 1997/98, around the 15th party congress?

【在 t*****e 的大作中提到】

: don't know for sure, but sounds likely.
: Inflation was high in 87/88, and it was probably due to the loosening of price
: controls. The overheat in 92/93 should come from the over-reaction to Deng's
: talk in the south.
:
: Policy magazine.
: heating
: party
: yes;

t*e2004-11-18 08:11

4 楼

Don't know. But from personal experience, I don't think there was an
overheating in 97/98. During the late 90s years, price level was consistently
dropping. This should not happen in an "overheating" economy.
What does overheating mean, anyway? It should be the situation when abnormally
strong demand chases limited resources. A direct implication of overheating
should be inflation.

have
price
Deng's
Foreign
economic
16th
1987/88,

【在 c********y 的大作中提到】

: it seems Deng's southern tour was also aimed at the party congress. Do we have
: overheating in 1997/98, around the 15th party congress?

t*e2004-11-18 08:11

5 楼

maybe the asian crisis contributes to the disinflation in China. Due to
currency devaluations across asian countries, we lost ground in export market
by maintaining fixed exchange rate. And this is also the time when we embraced
the notion of augmenting domestic demand, which means we had a weak domestic
demand.

c*y2004-11-18 08:11

6 楼

yeah, there was no overheating in 97/98, so this business cycle model didn't
work for that party congress. Intuitively, however, the idea that the
government supplies policies to generate growth at a time of party congress or
other significant events sounds appealing. And we do know that CCP does it
from time to time. Wonder if something consistent can be worked out (not
necessarilty related with party congress).

consistently
abnormally

【在 t*****e 的大作中提到】

: Don't know. But from personal experience, I don't think there was an
: overheating in 97/98. During the late 90s years, price level was consistently
: dropping. This should not happen in an "overheating" economy.
: What does overheating mean, anyway? It should be the situation when abnormally
: strong demand chases limited resources. A direct implication of overheating
: should be inflation.
:
:
: have
: price