地震预测 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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地震预测

地震预测# GeoSpace - 地球与空间科学

o*e2008-05-18 07:05

1 楼

A catastrophic earthquake happened to human beings in Sichuan, China, on
12th, May 2008. While we are all mourning the tragic loss of human lives,
young and old, we ask,
Can we prevent it from ever happen again, and how?
The common wisdom is, earthquake is not predictable but the loss can be
controlled. However, with all the advanced technologies we currently have,
is it still true? Or, we are not doing enough?!
I would like to share a little thought that strike me during my reflections
in thes

o*e2008-05-18 07:05

2 楼

Just for anyone who might be interested, this is the abstract of the paper I
mentioned in previous post.
Study of directivity effect on electromagnetic emissions in the HF band as
earthquake precursors: Preliminary results on field observations
I. Stavrakas, M. Clarke, G. Koulouras G. Stavrakakisc and C. NomicosE-mail
The Corresponding Author
Abstract
This work focuses on the use of electromagnetic emissions (EM) in the HF
band as a warning event for earthquakes. EM at HF components 41 MHz and 4

a*r2008-05-18 07:05

3 楼

给个中文摘要吧
要不没啥人读的

o*e2008-05-18 07:05

4 楼

Here you go, my pool translation.
本工作主要研究采用高频电磁波的产生作为地震的预警现象。我们在希腊的八个野外站
点监控和记录了频率为41兆赫兹和46兆赫兹的高频电磁波，并与地质现象进行关联比较
。在特定站点，电磁波发射的Directivity效应与指定区域的地震进行相关比较。通过
采用1999年的电磁波记录并通过肉眼鉴别，我们将电磁波信号与大于5级的地震现象联
系在一起。通过这些观察，我们结合了短期平均信号和长期平均信号的比例，和一系列
通过研究1999年电磁波发射而得到的预测规则，得到了一个新的算法以将几个野外站点
的结果整合在一起。这套系统的表现很出色，但也取决于特定的地质区域。对5.7级地
震的预测的总体表现是，75%的地质现象能够被电磁波的活动所正确的预测，而其中25%
不能预测。

o*e2008-05-18 07:05

5 楼

Also, a Chinese version of my thoughts.
通过实时监控地质活动对手机通讯网络的干扰提高地震预测的准确度
在Google中用关键词“seismic event electromagnetic”搜索后，找到的一些研究显
示电磁波在地震预测中的可能应用价值。
手机的优势，
1. 手机是目前最流行的电子设备，因此，我们可以迅速获得大量的数据点及样本，
这对统计学的分析具有很大的意义。
2. 手机一刻不停地与基站之间接受和传送电磁波。
3. 手机同时是一个可以分析数据的计算机。
4. 手机是一个很方便的信息传送平台。
5. 手机已经整合到整个社会中，甚至很偏远的地方，因此其地理覆盖范围很大，而
且不需要任何的硬件投资。
整体的想法是一套基于软件的解决方案。包含一点Web 2.0的概念，充分发挥广大人民
群众的力量，自动的进行数据的采集和共享。
手机端：
1. 开发一套用于手机的软件，通过该软件从手机硬件中获取关于手机和多个基站之
间电磁波传输的数据。如信号强度，稳定性等。
2. 记录这些数据, 包括时间，固定基站的代

o*e2008-05-18 07:05

6 楼

here are quite a few interesting things after I dig around more. it appears
that earthquake has its own unique EM frequences signature that is not
overlapped with frequencies used by cell phone. I am now thinking a USB
earthquake EM detector. Also, there is a web site that people can report
abnormal behavior of their pets on a US map, although there isn't much
activities at all.
Another interesting web site is http://www.earthscope.org/. they provide real-time data from a grid of sensors places