升级macbook pro硬盘：普通笔记本硬盘都可以么？# Hardware - 计算机硬件
h*9
1 楼
已经j1 visa第三年了，今年初开始了拿了一个奖学金换了新的DS2019，所以应该
subject to 2 years了。年底准备找工作，所以请大侠们指教一下，什么时候可以办理
豁免。谢谢～
subject to 2 years了。年底准备找工作，所以请大侠们指教一下，什么时候可以办理
豁免。谢谢～
i*a
2 楼
第一次签,无硬伤,材料按照版上准备的,只签3个星期的旅游.约的8点30,老爸签完打电
话通报顺利通过了,已经都办完邮寄了.遇上的是女VO,态度挺好的.
问好后递上给签证官的信和我的材料,问题有:
去美国干什么?
在哪个学校?
读书费用谁付的?
回过国嘛?
什么时候毕业?
爸妈都是什么工作?
期间只翻看了一下我的材料, 爸妈准备的所有材料都没有用到.据说前面有一对夫妇也
是去签B2,二签了, 但还是不幸被拒,太可惜了.不过爸妈没有受到什么影响,说签证官心
情还挺好.
签证准备期间看了版上的精华区,受益匪浅,资料准备详尽,问题也都按版上的准备,之前
演练了几遍,老爸说出题都在范围内...为了让爸妈省心,材料都是准备好,签了名寄回家
的,但签证过程就帮不了了,对于外地的父母们还是很辛苦的.不过都帮他们定好了机票
和旅馆,连吃饭的地儿都帮他们从网上选好了,昨天飞到北京,住了一晚,下午就飞回去,
还好一切都很顺利!
祝愿父母都能够签证顺利,早日团聚.
All the best! Blesssssss!
话通报顺利通过了,已经都办完邮寄了.遇上的是女VO,态度挺好的.
问好后递上给签证官的信和我的材料,问题有:
去美国干什么?
在哪个学校?
读书费用谁付的?
回过国嘛?
什么时候毕业?
爸妈都是什么工作?
期间只翻看了一下我的材料, 爸妈准备的所有材料都没有用到.据说前面有一对夫妇也
是去签B2,二签了, 但还是不幸被拒,太可惜了.不过爸妈没有受到什么影响,说签证官心
情还挺好.
签证准备期间看了版上的精华区,受益匪浅,资料准备详尽,问题也都按版上的准备,之前
演练了几遍,老爸说出题都在范围内...为了让爸妈省心,材料都是准备好,签了名寄回家
的,但签证过程就帮不了了,对于外地的父母们还是很辛苦的.不过都帮他们定好了机票
和旅馆,连吃饭的地儿都帮他们从网上选好了,昨天飞到北京,住了一晚,下午就飞回去,
还好一切都很顺利!
祝愿父母都能够签证顺利,早日团聚.
All the best! Blesssssss!
h*z
3 楼
是这样吗？
thx
thx
r*n
4 楼
Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
can get through all the paperwork ready in October. DOS determines the PD
based on how many cases are ready for approval, not how many cases are in
their database. It is a huge difference between "approvable cases" and "
pending cases".
3. China EB3-EB2 upgrade is negligible. The poring will not increase China
EB2 demand at all. Totally China has around 5000 EB3 and very few of them
are porting.
4. His thinks that China EB2 will not retrogess at all. He believes
China EB2 will move forward steadily from now.
I think what he said makes sense. There is no reason to retrogress for China
EB2. But it's hard to predict Mr.O's next move. He never followed the law and he made wrong decisions based on his personal understanding and interpolation. Let's see what will happen in October.
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
can get through all the paperwork ready in October. DOS determines the PD
based on how many cases are ready for approval, not how many cases are in
their database. It is a huge difference between "approvable cases" and "
pending cases".
3. China EB3-EB2 upgrade is negligible. The poring will not increase China
EB2 demand at all. Totally China has around 5000 EB3 and very few of them
are porting.
4. His thinks that China EB2 will not retrogess at all. He believes
China EB2 will move forward steadily from now.
I think what he said makes sense. There is no reason to retrogress for China
EB2. But it's hard to predict Mr.O's next move. He never followed the law and he made wrong decisions based on his personal understanding and interpolation. Let's see what will happen in October.
G*g
5 楼
今天在Brackenridge Park陪小娃坐火车, 顺便看了1眼那个久负盛名的 Japanese Tea
Garden. 这个花园在上世纪初, 由一处废弃的采石场改建而成. 最初由一个叫 Jingu (
神宫?)的日本人经营, 似乎应该叫茶庄更合适. 二战开始以后, 反日风潮大盛, 神宫后人
被政府送集中营了. 1家姓吴的中国人接盘, 改名叫 Chinese Tea Garden. 1984年的
时候, 日本经济崛起, 当时的 San Antonio 市长下令把正式的名字改回 Japanese Tea
Garden.
花园的入口, 由当时著名的木工艺师 Dionicio Rodríguez 手工雕刻而成, 模仿日本
传统的鸟居样式, 上面的刻字却还是 Chinese Tea Garden.
楼梯建筑由当地特产的石灰岩建成, 好像上次去的 San Antonio Missions 也多是用的
这种石头.
凉亭设计狠赞, 有气势的说.
池里的鱼狠大狠肥.
吃饱喝足了就排队游行
这个据说是干枯的瀑布
从凉亭看出去, 风景如画
当年神宫君烘烤茶叶的炉子
附近的鸭子一家
偶的无敌兔修好了, 这次照的色彩还算满意.
Garden. 这个花园在上世纪初, 由一处废弃的采石场改建而成. 最初由一个叫 Jingu (
神宫?)的日本人经营, 似乎应该叫茶庄更合适. 二战开始以后, 反日风潮大盛, 神宫后人
被政府送集中营了. 1家姓吴的中国人接盘, 改名叫 Chinese Tea Garden. 1984年的
时候, 日本经济崛起, 当时的 San Antonio 市长下令把正式的名字改回 Japanese Tea
Garden.
花园的入口, 由当时著名的木工艺师 Dionicio Rodríguez 手工雕刻而成, 模仿日本
传统的鸟居样式, 上面的刻字却还是 Chinese Tea Garden.
楼梯建筑由当地特产的石灰岩建成, 好像上次去的 San Antonio Missions 也多是用的
这种石头.
凉亭设计狠赞, 有气势的说.
池里的鱼狠大狠肥.
吃饱喝足了就排队游行
这个据说是干枯的瀑布
从凉亭看出去, 风景如画
当年神宫君烘烤茶叶的炉子
附近的鸭子一家
偶的无敌兔修好了, 这次照的色彩还算满意.
H*7
6 楼
给自己的MBP配个显示器..需要关注这个显示器有什么视频接口? 有推荐的显示器么?/
谢谢
19寸左右就觉得合适了.希望便宜点.主要是编程看大屏幕比较舒服.但太大了也不好
求推荐 和介绍.谢谢
谢谢
19寸左右就觉得合适了.希望便宜点.主要是编程看大屏幕比较舒服.但太大了也不好
求推荐 和介绍.谢谢
t*t
7 楼
【 以下文字转载自 Apple 讨论区 】
发信人: america (打败美帝野心狼), 信区: Apple
标 题: 升级macbook pro硬盘：普通笔记本硬盘都可以么？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 10 18:49:01 2009, 美东)
苹果有专用的硬盘，还是普通的笔记本硬盘都可以？
发信人: america (打败美帝野心狼), 信区: Apple
标 题: 升级macbook pro硬盘：普通笔记本硬盘都可以么？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 10 18:49:01 2009, 美东)
苹果有专用的硬盘，还是普通的笔记本硬盘都可以？
i*t
8 楼
这个看表格有效期了
h*g
9 楼
哈哈，楼主爸妈比偶爸妈早约了半个小时哦～～说不定在大厅里还见过面呢～～
偶爸妈也顺利通过鸟～～
偶现在兴奋的到处嚷嚷呢～～ ：）
不管怎样，恭喜楼主了～
偶爸妈也顺利通过鸟～～
偶现在兴奋的到处嚷嚷呢～～ ：）
不管怎样，恭喜楼主了～
x*h
10 楼
广州是只有周四早上
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 是这样吗？
: thx
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 是这样吗？
: thx
r*u
11 楼
Very reasonable,
Hopefully O is not crazy
Hopefully O is not crazy
b*r
12 楼
颜色确实不错，喜欢。地方也很有特色，可以考虑啥时候去一下
大概有多大的面积？
大概有多大的面积？
T*r
13 楼
现在显示器这么便宜
买个24的也就200出头
我在办公室买的是benq的2411hd
用dvi接口
在家还买了个2400evo的led backlit
但是那个没有dvi
只好买了个dvi to hdmi的线
然后接minidisplay－dvi
两个是200多
【在 H******7 的大作中提到】
: 给自己的MBP配个显示器..需要关注这个显示器有什么视频接口? 有推荐的显示器么?/
: 谢谢
: 19寸左右就觉得合适了.希望便宜点.主要是编程看大屏幕比较舒服.但太大了也不好
: 求推荐 和介绍.谢谢
买个24的也就200出头
我在办公室买的是benq的2411hd
用dvi接口
在家还买了个2400evo的led backlit
但是那个没有dvi
只好买了个dvi to hdmi的线
然后接minidisplay－dvi
两个是200多
【在 H******7 的大作中提到】
: 给自己的MBP配个显示器..需要关注这个显示器有什么视频接口? 有推荐的显示器么?/
: 谢谢
: 19寸左右就觉得合适了.希望便宜点.主要是编程看大屏幕比较舒服.但太大了也不好
: 求推荐 和介绍.谢谢
M*y
14 楼
可以。
【在 t**t 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Apple 讨论区 】
: 发信人: america (打败美帝野心狼), 信区: Apple
: 标 题: 升级macbook pro硬盘：普通笔记本硬盘都可以么？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 10 18:49:01 2009, 美东)
: 苹果有专用的硬盘，还是普通的笔记本硬盘都可以？
【在 t**t 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Apple 讨论区 】
: 发信人: america (打败美帝野心狼), 信区: Apple
: 标 题: 升级macbook pro硬盘：普通笔记本硬盘都可以么？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 10 18:49:01 2009, 美东)
: 苹果有专用的硬盘，还是普通的笔记本硬盘都可以？
h*9
15 楼
三年有效期，现在还有2年半。多谢～
【在 i*****t 的大作中提到】
: 这个看表格有效期了
【在 i*****t 的大作中提到】
: 这个看表格有效期了
t*s
16 楼
恭喜两位
b*n
17 楼
广州移民多，非移民签证时间少，不过换个人问也可能给你通融一下。
H1/F1本来就少
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 是这样吗？
: thx
H1/F1本来就少
【在 h*z 的大作中提到】
: 是这样吗？
: thx
a*l
18 楼
那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
进build up inventory.
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
进build up inventory.
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
G*g
19 楼
不知道有多大面积, 1小时之内可以逛完的样子.
【在 b****r 的大作中提到】
: 颜色确实不错，喜欢。地方也很有特色，可以考虑啥时候去一下
: 大概有多大的面积？
【在 b****r 的大作中提到】
: 颜色确实不错，喜欢。地方也很有特色，可以考虑啥时候去一下
: 大概有多大的面积？
H*7
20 楼
噢 谢谢
我就是对苹果的视频输出不太明白.请明示
我就是对苹果的视频输出不太明白.请明示
s*u
21 楼
YOu can start J waiver and green card from now if you do not want to back to
China. See top 2 post
【在 h*******9 的大作中提到】
: 三年有效期，现在还有2年半。多谢～
China. See top 2 post
【在 h*******9 的大作中提到】
: 三年有效期，现在还有2年半。多谢～
h*z
22 楼
前几天问了，最晚能约的是5月26号。按都是周四算，可能下面的要6月2号了。
想31号签，主要是怕check，想尽可能留多点时间。但现在看来在广州
只能周四了。。接线的能通融吗？还是名额时间都已经定下来的？
谢谢！
【在 b*****n 的大作中提到】
: 广州移民多，非移民签证时间少，不过换个人问也可能给你通融一下。
: H1/F1本来就少
想31号签，主要是怕check，想尽可能留多点时间。但现在看来在广州
只能周四了。。接线的能通融吗？还是名额时间都已经定下来的？
谢谢！
【在 b*****n 的大作中提到】
: 广州移民多，非移民签证时间少，不过换个人问也可能给你通融一下。
: H1/F1本来就少
y*w
23 楼
The attorney's judgment and reasoning should be directed to O by NIU.
G*1
24 楼
HDR不错
T*r
25 楼
最好就是dvi
买个minidisplay －dvi的接头
可以用vga，不过好像接过去不太对
比如我外接显示器的时候，用vga就没有背景图案
只有用dvi才能看到
【在 H******7 的大作中提到】
: 噢 谢谢
: 我就是对苹果的视频输出不太明白.请明示
买个minidisplay －dvi的接头
可以用vga，不过好像接过去不太对
比如我外接显示器的时候，用vga就没有背景图案
只有用dvi才能看到
【在 H******7 的大作中提到】
: 噢 谢谢
: 我就是对苹果的视频输出不太明白.请明示
h*z
26 楼
多谢！
【在 x**h 的大作中提到】
: 广州是只有周四早上
【在 x**h 的大作中提到】
: 广州是只有周四早上
S*r
27 楼
You are very lucky to have such an accessible and insightful lawyer.
Most of XDJMs here including me are stuck with stupid lawyers that don't
have any clue of what's going on.
Thanks again for sharing!
Most of XDJMs here including me are stuck with stupid lawyers that don't
have any clue of what's going on.
Thanks again for sharing!
G*g
28 楼
没用HDR, 1张也没用。
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: HDR不错
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: HDR不错
p*i
29 楼
我外接24寸显示器minidp->vga 和minidp->div没有区别
【在 T*********r 的大作中提到】
: 最好就是dvi
: 买个minidisplay －dvi的接头
: 可以用vga，不过好像接过去不太对
: 比如我外接显示器的时候，用vga就没有背景图案
: 只有用dvi才能看到
【在 T*********r 的大作中提到】
: 最好就是dvi
: 买个minidisplay －dvi的接头
: 可以用vga，不过好像接过去不太对
: 比如我外接显示器的时候，用vga就没有背景图案
: 只有用dvi才能看到
y*n
30 楼
你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
的EB2应该松绑了。
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
的EB2应该松绑了。
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
G*Y
31 楼
不错
Tea
(
后人
Tea
【在 G*******g 的大作中提到】
: 今天在Brackenridge Park陪小娃坐火车, 顺便看了1眼那个久负盛名的 Japanese Tea
: Garden. 这个花园在上世纪初, 由一处废弃的采石场改建而成. 最初由一个叫 Jingu (
: 神宫?)的日本人经营, 似乎应该叫茶庄更合适. 二战开始以后, 反日风潮大盛, 神宫后人
: 被政府送集中营了. 1家姓吴的中国人接盘, 改名叫 Chinese Tea Garden. 1984年的
: 时候, 日本经济崛起, 当时的 San Antonio 市长下令把正式的名字改回 Japanese Tea
: Garden.
: 花园的入口, 由当时著名的木工艺师 Dionicio Rodríguez 手工雕刻而成, 模仿日本
: 传统的鸟居样式, 上面的刻字却还是 Chinese Tea Garden.
: 楼梯建筑由当地特产的石灰岩建成, 好像上次去的 San Antonio Missions 也多是用的
: 这种石头.
Tea
(
后人
Tea
【在 G*******g 的大作中提到】
: 今天在Brackenridge Park陪小娃坐火车, 顺便看了1眼那个久负盛名的 Japanese Tea
: Garden. 这个花园在上世纪初, 由一处废弃的采石场改建而成. 最初由一个叫 Jingu (
: 神宫?)的日本人经营, 似乎应该叫茶庄更合适. 二战开始以后, 反日风潮大盛, 神宫后人
: 被政府送集中营了. 1家姓吴的中国人接盘, 改名叫 Chinese Tea Garden. 1984年的
: 时候, 日本经济崛起, 当时的 San Antonio 市长下令把正式的名字改回 Japanese Tea
: Garden.
: 花园的入口, 由当时著名的木工艺师 Dionicio Rodríguez 手工雕刻而成, 模仿日本
: 传统的鸟居样式, 上面的刻字却还是 Chinese Tea Garden.
: 楼梯建筑由当地特产的石灰岩建成, 好像上次去的 San Antonio Missions 也多是用的
: 这种石头.
l*o
32 楼
怎么也要MVA或者IPS的屏吧
【在 T*********r 的大作中提到】
: 现在显示器这么便宜
: 买个24的也就200出头
: 我在办公室买的是benq的2411hd
: 用dvi接口
: 在家还买了个2400evo的led backlit
: 但是那个没有dvi
: 只好买了个dvi to hdmi的线
: 然后接minidisplay－dvi
: 两个是200多
【在 T*********r 的大作中提到】
: 现在显示器这么便宜
: 买个24的也就200出头
: 我在办公室买的是benq的2411hd
: 用dvi接口
: 在家还买了个2400evo的led backlit
: 但是那个没有dvi
: 只好买了个dvi to hdmi的线
: 然后接minidisplay－dvi
: 两个是200多
S*r
33 楼
还得看O傻如何预测大潮后EB2C的需求啊
要是那B死活认定EB2C每年需求还大于2800
肯定不肯给我们松绑啊
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
: 的EB2应该松绑了。
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
要是那B死活认定EB2C每年需求还大于2800
肯定不肯给我们松绑啊
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
: 的EB2应该松绑了。
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
G*g
34 楼
一不留神上十大了...嘿嘿.
T*r
35 楼
好像合起来只有external display是一样的
但是当second display好像不一样
【在 p*****i 的大作中提到】
: 我外接24寸显示器minidp->vga 和minidp->div没有区别
但是当second display好像不一样
【在 p*****i 的大作中提到】
: 我外接24寸显示器minidp->vga 和minidp->div没有区别
c*s
36 楼
If not retrogress in October, aug/sep VB will be small movement.
G*1
37 楼
那发包子把
没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
【在 G*******g 的大作中提到】
: 一不留神上十大了...嘿嘿.
没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
【在 G*******g 的大作中提到】
: 一不留神上十大了...嘿嘿.
t*e
38 楼
恕欧直言，您这也太消极了，横竖都不好，难道八九月大前进十月倒退才是好消息才是
可信的消息？ 如果不前进就停滞好了。anyway..
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
可信的消息？ 如果不前进就停滞好了。anyway..
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
s*g
39 楼
不错!
y*n
40 楼
怎么是坏消息？PD越靠后就说明之前的case都解决了。07大潮过后，中国本身的perm
case是不多的，尤其是09年。
可以这么说：只要07大潮能在今年暑假被解决，接下来的两年里，中国的EB2是能自给
自足的，这难道不是好消息么？
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
case是不多的，尤其是09年。
可以这么说：只要07大潮能在今年暑假被解决，接下来的两年里，中国的EB2是能自给
自足的，这难道不是好消息么？
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
a*u
41 楼
同城帮顶。
x*e
42 楼
我看了也很担心。火箭扇，你的律师让你准备485的东西了吗？如果没有，那不是好消
息。
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
息。
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
t*t
43 楼
没用HDR不代表没有后期呀。
看着像用了recover，或者减了蓝色的亮度。
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: 那发包子把
: 没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
看着像用了recover，或者减了蓝色的亮度。
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: 那发包子把
: 没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
J*t
44 楼
我个人认为不是松绑，而是中国EB2大致可以自给自足，如果有大量的so，我们才分一
些，如果so数量不够巨大的话，我们用自己名额也在老印前面。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
: 的EB2应该松绑了。
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
些，如果so数量不够巨大的话，我们用自己名额也在老印前面。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你律师专业的解释基本上符合了我的猜想：如果这次绿潮能解决中国07大潮的话，中印
: 的EB2应该松绑了。
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
G*g
45 楼
C+是指Canon吗？ 偶用的是无敌兔啊。
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: 那发包子把
: 没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: 那发包子把
: 没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
S*r
46 楼
假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: If not retrogress in October, aug/sep VB will be small movement.
然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: If not retrogress in October, aug/sep VB will be small movement.
a*e
47 楼
这一组颜色真够鲜艳
Q*e
48 楼
ding!
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
a*u
49 楼
这样明媚的日子，景物都很明亮，用不着hdr， 这位是来黑c+的吧
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: 那发包子把
: 没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
【在 G****1 的大作中提到】
: 那发包子把
: 没有HDR，那这相机的宽容度不错，看来不是我C+的。。。
r*n
50 楼
No, EB2 PD will move forward for sure!
But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
not retrogress.
If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all.
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
not retrogress.
If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all.
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 那这就是一个很坏的消息了.10月不倒退的话就是说8,9月不会大前进,特别是不会大前
: 进build up inventory.
:
: all.
: EB2
: cases
y*n
51 楼
这个说法的问题我不在乎，底线是只要中国EB2能自给自足，我们还有什么可以担心的
呢？
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人认为不是松绑，而是中国EB2大致可以自给自足，如果有大量的so，我们才分一
: 些，如果so数量不够巨大的话，我们用自己名额也在老印前面。
呢？
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我个人认为不是松绑，而是中国EB2大致可以自给自足，如果有大量的so，我们才分一
: 些，如果so数量不够巨大的话，我们用自己名额也在老印前面。
c*s
52 楼
If PD jump to Q1/Q2 2008, I don't think OCT VB will stay there.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: No, EB2 PD will move forward for sure!
: But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
: not retrogress.
: If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
: less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
: Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
: October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
: But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: No, EB2 PD will move forward for sure!
: But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
: not retrogress.
: If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
: less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
: Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
: October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
: But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all.
c*o
53 楼
I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
might be a real attorney.
might be a real attorney.
y*n
54 楼
你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: If PD jump to Q1/Q2 2008, I don't think OCT VB will stay there.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: If PD jump to Q1/Q2 2008, I don't think OCT VB will stay there.
b*k
55 楼
In this case, does that mean if PD moves to 08, Q1, whoever submitted at
Sept could expect to be approved soon after 485 submission instead of
waiting for a long time?
Sept could expect to be approved soon after 485 submission instead of
waiting for a long time?
J*t
56 楼
我们的观点是一致的
本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 这个说法的问题我不在乎，底线是只要中国EB2能自给自足，我们还有什么可以担心的
: 呢？
本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 这个说法的问题我不在乎，底线是只要中国EB2能自给自足，我们还有什么可以担心的
: 呢？
r*n
57 楼
My personal prediction is:
VB in September: April 2008
VB in October: sometime between Dec.2007 to April 2008
VB in December: move forward maybe 3 months or even more!
The reason for big jump in September is that India needs to build an
inventory.
Our China EB2 demand:
Before July 2007 is around 1000 maximum, out of these 1000, 20% maximum can
be ready for approval in October.
Between July 2007 and April 2008 is around 3000 maximum, out of these 3000,
20% maximum can be ready for approval in the next Spring (Feburary or sth).
In a word, I think Chinese EB2 demand will be low, the approvalbe cases will
be very small!
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
: 然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
: 这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
VB in September: April 2008
VB in October: sometime between Dec.2007 to April 2008
VB in December: move forward maybe 3 months or even more!
The reason for big jump in September is that India needs to build an
inventory.
Our China EB2 demand:
Before July 2007 is around 1000 maximum, out of these 1000, 20% maximum can
be ready for approval in October.
Between July 2007 and April 2008 is around 3000 maximum, out of these 3000,
20% maximum can be ready for approval in the next Spring (Feburary or sth).
In a word, I think Chinese EB2 demand will be low, the approvalbe cases will
be very small!
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
: 然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
: 这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
c*s
58 楼
sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07
if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07
J*t
59 楼
我觉得老印会，老中不会
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
: if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
: if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.
r*n
60 楼
But the thing is that there will not be enough number of cases to consume
the monthly quota.
Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
cases. No way to get ready in October.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
: if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.
the monthly quota.
Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
cases. No way to get ready in October.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
: if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress.
y*n
61 楼
嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
情况随时会变...
说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
reasonable
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我们的观点是一致的
: 本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
: 的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？
的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
情况随时会变...
说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
reasonable
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我们的观点是一致的
: 本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
: 的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？
c*s
62 楼
For the first half year of 2012, O only needs 1400 demand. He could open the
gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).
submitted
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: But the thing is that there will not be enough number of cases to consume
: the monthly quota.
: Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
: cases. No way to get ready in October.
gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).
submitted
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: But the thing is that there will not be enough number of cases to consume
: the monthly quota.
: Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
: cases. No way to get ready in October.
c*s
63 楼
I agree.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
r*n
64 楼
When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
Nobody wants to waste visa.
the
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: For the first half year of 2012, O only needs 1400 demand. He could open the
: gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).
:
: submitted
It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
Nobody wants to waste visa.
the
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: For the first half year of 2012, O only needs 1400 demand. He could open the
: gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).
:
: submitted
z*l
65 楼
潜深水的说一句，这几天也老琢磨来着，10月份如果做决定的人明智的话应该保持PD不
动，让新递交的申请被受理，被分配VISA。
多谢楼主的信息!
动，让新递交的申请被受理，被分配VISA。
多谢楼主的信息!
S*r
66 楼
哈哈 如果看PD密集度的话 应该是09PD最幸运吧
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
J*t
67 楼
每个阶段的pd都有自己的幸于不幸吧
无论如何只要0707 大潮过去了，形式确实明朗多了，
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
无论如何只要0707 大潮过去了，形式确实明朗多了，
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
L*a
68 楼
heihei
bbs上面不都是这样子么
我同事
我同学
我邻居
其实呢
就是
我____
：D
【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】
: I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
: might be a real attorney.
bbs上面不都是这样子么
我同事
我同学
我邻居
其实呢
就是
我____
：D
【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】
: I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
: might be a real attorney.
i*t
69 楼
其实只要07年的大潮过了，就每年交上来的那么点申请USCIS还是能够搞定的
【在 z****l 的大作中提到】
: 潜深水的说一句，这几天也老琢磨来着，10月份如果做决定的人明智的话应该保持PD不
: 动，让新递交的申请被受理，被分配VISA。
: 多谢楼主的信息!
【在 z****l 的大作中提到】
: 潜深水的说一句，这几天也老琢磨来着，10月份如果做决定的人明智的话应该保持PD不
: 动，让新递交的申请被受理，被分配VISA。
: 多谢楼主的信息!
a*l
70 楼
你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
reasonable
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我们的观点是一致的
: 本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
: 的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？
后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
reasonable
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我们的观点是一致的
: 本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟，只要0707大潮过去了，进到08年是很reasonable
: 的，往回退个半年，还有什么demand，哪里有绿卡可批？
l*8
71 楼
请问8 月份的EB2 预测会前进到多少啊? 能到July, 2007 吗? 谢谢你
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
: It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
: Nobody wants to waste visa.
:
: the
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
: It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
: Nobody wants to waste visa.
:
: the
r*n
72 楼
Mr.O is hard to predict.
He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
into the data and facts.
We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
consumption on a monthly basis.
Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
, then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
several years ago. We have to monitor and push!
1000
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:
He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
into the data and facts.
We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
consumption on a monthly basis.
Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
, then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
several years ago. We have to monitor and push!
1000
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:
r*n
73 楼
I think it's very likely the PD will move to July 2007.
【在 l**********8 的大作中提到】
: 请问8 月份的EB2 预测会前进到多少啊? 能到July, 2007 吗? 谢谢你
【在 l**********8 的大作中提到】
: 请问8 月份的EB2 预测会前进到多少啊? 能到July, 2007 吗? 谢谢你
s*n
74 楼
what yr lawyer said is kind of self-contradictary.
c*s
75 楼
If you look at the trackitt sample data(ROW EB2) like JEW point it out, the
normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
deal with any unexpected large amount SO.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
: It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
: Nobody wants to waste visa.
:
: the
normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
deal with any unexpected large amount SO.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
: It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
: Nobody wants to waste visa.
:
: the
l*8
76 楼
你的贴很好,
deep
cases
EB3
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Mr.O is hard to predict.
: He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
: into the data and facts.
: We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
: In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
: consumption on a monthly basis.
: Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
: , then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
: several years ago. We have to monitor and push!
:
deep
cases
EB3
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Mr.O is hard to predict.
: He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
: into the data and facts.
: We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
: In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
: consumption on a monthly basis.
: Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
: , then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
: several years ago. We have to monitor and push!
:
l*8
77 楼
谢谢你啊!
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think it's very likely the PD will move to July 2007.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: I think it's very likely the PD will move to July 2007.
r*n
78 楼
hehe, thanks!
just some info for your reference.
【在 l**********8 的大作中提到】
: 你的贴很好,
:
: deep
: cases
: EB3
just some info for your reference.
【在 l**********8 的大作中提到】
: 你的贴很好,
:
: deep
: cases
: EB3
b*n
79 楼
sounds reasonable, however, it really depends on if Mr.O is also reasonable
Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB
cases
can get through all the paperwork ready in October. DOS determines the PD
based on how many cases are ready for approval, not how many cases are in
their database. It is a huge difference between "approvable cases" and "
pending cases".
3. China EB3-EB2 upgrade is negligible. The poring will not increase China
EB2 demand at all. Totally China has around 5000 EB3 and very few of them
are porting.
4. His thinks that China EB2 will not retrogess at all. He believes
China EB2 will move forward steadily from now.
I think what he said makes sense. There is no reason to retrogress for China
EB2. But it's hard to predict Mr.O's next move. He never followed the law
and he made wrong decisions based on his personal understanding and
interpolation. Let's see what will happen in October.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB
cases
can get through all the paperwork ready in October. DOS determines the PD
based on how many cases are ready for approval, not how many cases are in
their database. It is a huge difference between "approvable cases" and "
pending cases".
3. China EB3-EB2 upgrade is negligible. The poring will not increase China
EB2 demand at all. Totally China has around 5000 EB3 and very few of them
are porting.
4. His thinks that China EB2 will not retrogess at all. He believes
China EB2 will move forward steadily from now.
I think what he said makes sense. There is no reason to retrogress for China
EB2. But it's hard to predict Mr.O's next move. He never followed the law
and he made wrong decisions based on his personal understanding and
interpolation. Let's see what will happen in October.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
i*t
80 楼
if he is, china and india should not be binded together
reasonable
all.
EB2
【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: sounds reasonable, however, it really depends on if Mr.O is also reasonable
:
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
reasonable
all.
EB2
【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: sounds reasonable, however, it really depends on if Mr.O is also reasonable
:
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
r*n
81 楼
From the previous patterns, I believe they prefer to move PD in the last
quarter.
last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
to predict him 100% accurately.
the
to
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: If you look at the trackitt sample data(ROW EB2) like JEW point it out, the
: normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
: deal with any unexpected large amount SO.
quarter.
last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
to predict him 100% accurately.
the
to
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: If you look at the trackitt sample data(ROW EB2) like JEW point it out, the
: normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
: deal with any unexpected large amount SO.
P*S
82 楼
分析的没错。有大前进必然有大后退，除非O今年变风格了。
律师确实不一定比申请人更明白。
1000
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:
律师确实不一定比申请人更明白。
1000
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:
b*n
83 楼
//nod, hehe
if he is, china and india should not be binded together
reasonable
all.
EB2
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: if he is, china and india should not be binded together
:
: reasonable
: all.
: EB2
if he is, china and india should not be binded together
reasonable
all.
EB2
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: if he is, china and india should not be binded together
:
: reasonable
: all.
: EB2
c*s
84 楼
Yes. Could anyone/org talk with O to see what is his plan for AUG/SEP/NEXT
YEAR?
way
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: From the previous patterns, I believe they prefer to move PD in the last
: quarter.
: last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
: Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
: to predict him 100% accurately.
:
: the
: to
YEAR?
way
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: From the previous patterns, I believe they prefer to move PD in the last
: quarter.
: last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
: Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
: to predict him 100% accurately.
:
: the
: to
r*n
85 楼
My personal opinion is that China EB2 should never have had retrogression in the
first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
for so long!
The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O himself didn't
know the law clearly before 2007. Everything was a mess before 2007.
Mr.O himself is self contradictory. He does things based on his personal
understanding. In one hand, he asked our Chinese EB2 to wait and retrogess, on the other hand, he assigned all the visas to India EB3. After 2007, he stopped doing that after he figured out the law. But is that over? Isn't this mess caused by him? Shouldn't he take the responsbility of his mis-judgement before 2007? Is it a joke to change regulations before 2007 and after 2007?
We are waiting for so many years just because they made so many mistakes in
the past. We are paying a heavy price for these stupid people's mistakes.
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: if he is, china and india should not be binded together
:
: reasonable
: all.
: EB2
first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
for so long!
The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O himself didn't
know the law clearly before 2007. Everything was a mess before 2007.
Mr.O himself is self contradictory. He does things based on his personal
understanding. In one hand, he asked our Chinese EB2 to wait and retrogess, on the other hand, he assigned all the visas to India EB3. After 2007, he stopped doing that after he figured out the law. But is that over? Isn't this mess caused by him? Shouldn't he take the responsbility of his mis-judgement before 2007? Is it a joke to change regulations before 2007 and after 2007?
We are waiting for so many years just because they made so many mistakes in
the past. We are paying a heavy price for these stupid people's mistakes.
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: if he is, china and india should not be binded together
:
: reasonable
: all.
: EB2
P*S
86 楼
USCIS肯定会把O给骂死的。就象当年07大潮，虽然前面有PD03和04的，但PD06年也有批
的。
假设9月放水到2008年初，十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
不到三千名额，PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前，PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
望，肯定会使出浑身解数，把USCIS给折腾死。
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
: 然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
: 这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
的。
假设9月放水到2008年初，十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
不到三千名额，PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前，PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
望，肯定会使出浑身解数，把USCIS给折腾死。
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 假设9月放水到2008年初（算大的前进了吧）
: 然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485（3000人左右）
: 这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
j*e
87 楼
标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
。
倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
。
g*o
88 楼
acectl, there is a 27% per quarter limit for first three quarters, they can'
t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.
1000
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:
t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.
1000
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
: 后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
: 如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
: 国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
: 的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
: 个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
: 确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
: 要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
: 希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.
:
r*n
89 楼
In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
consume the monthly quota.
It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: USCIS肯定会把O给骂死的。就象当年07大潮，虽然前面有PD03和04的，但PD06年也有批
: 的。
: 假设9月放水到2008年初，十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
: 不到三千名额，PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前，PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
: 望，肯定会使出浑身解数，把USCIS给折腾死。
consume the monthly quota.
It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: USCIS肯定会把O给骂死的。就象当年07大潮，虽然前面有PD03和04的，但PD06年也有批
: 的。
: 假设9月放水到2008年初，十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
: 不到三千名额，PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前，PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
: 望，肯定会使出浑身解数，把USCIS给折腾死。
z*y
90 楼
re, Aug, Sep VB will set the tone.
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
: 倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
: 。
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
: 倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
: 。
l*7
91 楼
基本同意，除了０８ ＰＤ的ＰＥＲＭ申请相对难了点，被ＡＵＤＩＴ的多，拖得时间
长。当相对等的时间还算少了，马上就能得解放了。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
长。当相对等的时间还算少了，马上就能得解放了。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
d*n
92 楼
your attorney is awesome! I think this is good news for all future EB2C.
c*s
93 楼
PD大潮后到２００８年前的，一个月平均中印需求有２２００到２５００人，中国EB２
每个月只有２５０可用。我对２０１２年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论
because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
: consume the monthly quota.
: It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
每个月只有２５０可用。我对２０１２年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论
because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
: consume the monthly quota.
: It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
y*n
94 楼
嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 基本同意，除了０８ ＰＤ的ＰＥＲＭ申请相对难了点，被ＡＵＤＩＴ的多，拖得时间
: 长。当相对等的时间还算少了，马上就能得解放了。
所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 基本同意，除了０８ ＰＤ的ＰＥＲＭ申请相对难了点，被ＡＵＤＩＴ的多，拖得时间
: 长。当相对等的时间还算少了，马上就能得解放了。
P*S
95 楼
07年的时候，待批的I-485从03到06都有是因为RIR变成PERM造成的。但06年的I-485比
03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动，08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC，就能先被批。
because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
: consume the monthly quota.
: It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动，08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC，就能先被批。
because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
: consume the monthly quota.
: It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
r*n
96 楼
yes, India and China together have a huge demand, but Chinese demand is not
high!
Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't think they can approve any
until the next year.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: PD大潮后到２００８年前的，一个月平均中印需求有２２００到２５００人，中国EB２
: 每个月只有２５０可用。我对２０１２年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
: YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论
:
: because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
high!
Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't think they can approve any
until the next year.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: PD大潮后到２００８年前的，一个月平均中印需求有２２００到２５００人，中国EB２
: 每个月只有２５０可用。我对２０１２年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
: YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论
:
: because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
r*n
97 楼
Yes, previously the name check was a long process. Now I think the name
check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will pass the name check
earlier than 08 Q1 folks. Plus there are not many China EB2 people anyway!
NC。
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 07年的时候，待批的I-485从03到06都有是因为RIR变成PERM造成的。但06年的I-485比
: 03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
: 如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动，08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC，就能先被批。
:
: because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will pass the name check
earlier than 08 Q1 folks. Plus there are not many China EB2 people anyway!
NC。
【在 P****S 的大作中提到】
: 07年的时候，待批的I-485从03到06都有是因为RIR变成PERM造成的。但06年的I-485比
: 03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
: 如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动，08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC，就能先被批。
:
: because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
c*s
98 楼
It is so normal for 4 months to get a new case green. USCIS also set 6 months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.
not
400 for
of
any
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, India and China together have a huge demand, but Chinese demand is not
: high!
: Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
: monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
: China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
: For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
: the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
: approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't think they can approve any
: until the next year.
400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.
not
400 for
of
any
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, India and China together have a huge demand, but Chinese demand is not
: high!
: Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
: monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
: China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
: For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
: the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
: approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't think they can approve any
: until the next year.
y*n
99 楼
火箭，请普及一下：file 了485后，除了name check(FBI?),主要还要等什么？
got
approval
story
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, previously the name check was a long process. Now I think the name
: check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
: earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
: stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
: and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
: because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
: same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will pass the name check
: earlier than 08 Q1 folks. Plus there are not many China EB2 people anyway!
:
: NC。
got
approval
story
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, previously the name check was a long process. Now I think the name
: check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
: earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
: stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
: and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
: because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
: same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will pass the name check
: earlier than 08 Q1 folks. Plus there are not many China EB2 people anyway!
:
: NC。
c*s
100 楼
Name check usually takes only a couple of weeks after they updated the
system in 2009.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 火箭，请普及一下：file 了485后，除了name check(FBI?),主要还要等什么？
:
: got
: approval
: story
system in 2009.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 火箭，请普及一下：file 了485后，除了name check(FBI?),主要还要等什么？
:
: got
: approval
: story
y*n
101 楼
谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
对不起，我现在在恶补知识。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: Name check usually takes only a couple of weeks after they updated the
: system in 2009.
对不起，我现在在恶补知识。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: Name check usually takes only a couple of weeks after they updated the
: system in 2009.
P*S
102 楼
因为政府工作都很lay back
呢？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
: 对不起，我现在在恶补知识。
呢？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
: 对不起，我现在在恶补知识。
J*t
103 楼
08年的pd最多能在今年递485，今年批不太可能，进入2012年，不也是4年吗？
at
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
: 所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
: all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。
at
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
: 所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
: all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。
c*s
104 楼
我建议你看PINGJIANG的微博，在文学城。过去看过些文章关于处理流程，有点忘了。
FBI是一个，还有一个什么CHECK忘了，总之这些CHECK正常情况１个月够了。主要处理
的时间是收材料，录入４８５申请的数据，内部之间文件传送等等。
所以四个月是很正常的处理时间，TRACKITT上面ROWEB２一直CURRENT， 基本你看它提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
呢？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
: 对不起，我现在在恶补知识。
FBI是一个，还有一个什么CHECK忘了，总之这些CHECK正常情况１个月够了。主要处理
的时间是收材料，录入４８５申请的数据，内部之间文件传送等等。
所以四个月是很正常的处理时间，TRACKITT上面ROWEB２一直CURRENT， 基本你看它提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
呢？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢，那么file了485后，直到被approve，还有什么hurdle? 为什么要take好几个月呢？
: 对不起，我现在在恶补知识。
r*n
105 楼
If we assume it takes 4 months to process everything for 485, a PWMB case
needs to rush into the pipeline before June 1st in order to get his green
card in Oct.1st.
In other words, a case has to be submitted before June 1st in order to use a
visa number in Oct.1st.
As we know, the PWMB demand are mainly in May-July range (90%). These folks
haven't submitted their cases yet because the July VB is still March 2007.
The earliest date for PWMB to submit 485 is in August 1st, there is no way
for the PWMB cases to be approved before December 1st.
Additionally, I really doubt the USCIS will touch any of these new cases in
this summer. They will focus all their resources on 06-07 cases.
In this October and November, the approvable cases are minimum. Even in this
December, the approvable cases are small numbers.
In my opinion, they will start approving the PWMB cases in the next Feburary
or so.
months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: It is so normal for 4 months to get a new case green. USCIS also set 6 months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
: 400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.
:
: not
: 400 for
: of
: any
needs to rush into the pipeline before June 1st in order to get his green
card in Oct.1st.
In other words, a case has to be submitted before June 1st in order to use a
visa number in Oct.1st.
As we know, the PWMB demand are mainly in May-July range (90%). These folks
haven't submitted their cases yet because the July VB is still March 2007.
The earliest date for PWMB to submit 485 is in August 1st, there is no way
for the PWMB cases to be approved before December 1st.
Additionally, I really doubt the USCIS will touch any of these new cases in
this summer. They will focus all their resources on 06-07 cases.
In this October and November, the approvable cases are minimum. Even in this
December, the approvable cases are small numbers.
In my opinion, they will start approving the PWMB cases in the next Feburary
or so.
months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: It is so normal for 4 months to get a new case green. USCIS also set 6 months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
: 400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.
:
: not
: 400 for
: of
: any
S*y
106 楼
08最幸运？07/07 PD笑了
j*e
107 楼
That's true. 所以在8，9月排期不确定的情况下，讨论10月会不会倒退没有意义。
不如讨论如果奥本为了在下一财年第一季度不倒退排期，他应该在9月底前收多少新485
吧。
按照第一季度名额2800 X 27% = 756，如果9月底之前交上的新485有50%会在12月底前
批准，那么奥本会在9月底前收大概756X2大约1500份新485。如楼主所估计，PD为07年8
月前的PWMB就有大约1000，再收07年7月后大约500份485，那9月排期最多到07年9月。
（07年7月后每个月至少有700人等着交485。）
can'
【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: acectl, there is a 27% per quarter limit for first three quarters, they can'
: t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.
:
: 1000
不如讨论如果奥本为了在下一财年第一季度不倒退排期，他应该在9月底前收多少新485
吧。
按照第一季度名额2800 X 27% = 756，如果9月底之前交上的新485有50%会在12月底前
批准，那么奥本会在9月底前收大概756X2大约1500份新485。如楼主所估计，PD为07年8
月前的PWMB就有大约1000，再收07年7月后大约500份485，那9月排期最多到07年9月。
（07年7月后每个月至少有700人等着交485。）
can'
【在 g**o 的大作中提到】
: acectl, there is a 27% per quarter limit for first three quarters, they can'
: t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.
:
: 1000
a*n
108 楼
Similar here: rocketsfan probably is working in a law firm, and
he is the attorney or assistant to the attorney.
Thanks, rocketsfan, for all the news/info here. That's both informative
and encouraging.
【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】
: I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
: might be a real attorney.
he is the attorney or assistant to the attorney.
Thanks, rocketsfan, for all the news/info here. That's both informative
and encouraging.
【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】
: I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
: might be a real attorney.
s*v
109 楼
火箭大师，请问08年1月底的什么时候能拿到呢？明年4月有个会在加拿大，如果拿到了
就不用签证了。不然又是一番折腾谢谢！
a
folks
in
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: If we assume it takes 4 months to process everything for 485, a PWMB case
: needs to rush into the pipeline before June 1st in order to get his green
: card in Oct.1st.
: In other words, a case has to be submitted before June 1st in order to use a
: visa number in Oct.1st.
: As we know, the PWMB demand are mainly in May-July range (90%). These folks
: haven't submitted their cases yet because the July VB is still March 2007.
: The earliest date for PWMB to submit 485 is in August 1st, there is no way
: for the PWMB cases to be approved before December 1st.
: Additionally, I really doubt the USCIS will touch any of these new cases in
就不用签证了。不然又是一番折腾谢谢！
a
folks
in
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: If we assume it takes 4 months to process everything for 485, a PWMB case
: needs to rush into the pipeline before June 1st in order to get his green
: card in Oct.1st.
: In other words, a case has to be submitted before June 1st in order to use a
: visa number in Oct.1st.
: As we know, the PWMB demand are mainly in May-July range (90%). These folks
: haven't submitted their cases yet because the July VB is still March 2007.
: The earliest date for PWMB to submit 485 is in August 1st, there is no way
: for the PWMB cases to be approved before December 1st.
: Additionally, I really doubt the USCIS will touch any of these new cases in
a*n
110 楼
My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
years.
Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
years.
r*n
111 楼
Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
cases in this summer.
But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
spillover.
Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
have to admit more than 15k for sure!
485
年8
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: That's true. 所以在8，9月排期不确定的情况下，讨论10月会不会倒退没有意义。
: 不如讨论如果奥本为了在下一财年第一季度不倒退排期，他应该在9月底前收多少新485
: 吧。
: 按照第一季度名额2800 X 27% = 756，如果9月底之前交上的新485有50%会在12月底前
: 批准，那么奥本会在9月底前收大概756X2大约1500份新485。如楼主所估计，PD为07年8
: 月前的PWMB就有大约1000，再收07年7月后大约500份485，那9月排期最多到07年9月。
: （07年7月后每个月至少有700人等着交485。）
:
: can'
cases in this summer.
But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
spillover.
Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
have to admit more than 15k for sure!
485
年8
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: That's true. 所以在8，9月排期不确定的情况下，讨论10月会不会倒退没有意义。
: 不如讨论如果奥本为了在下一财年第一季度不倒退排期，他应该在9月底前收多少新485
: 吧。
: 按照第一季度名额2800 X 27% = 756，如果9月底之前交上的新485有50%会在12月底前
: 批准，那么奥本会在9月底前收大概756X2大约1500份新485。如楼主所估计，PD为07年8
: 月前的PWMB就有大约1000，再收07年7月后大约500份485，那9月排期最多到07年9月。
: （07年7月后每个月至少有700人等着交485。）
:
: can'
r*n
112 楼
hehe, no, I am a petroleum engineer.
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: Similar here: rocketsfan probably is working in a law firm, and
: he is the attorney or assistant to the attorney.
: Thanks, rocketsfan, for all the news/info here. That's both informative
: and encouraging.
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: Similar here: rocketsfan probably is working in a law firm, and
: he is the attorney or assistant to the attorney.
: Thanks, rocketsfan, for all the news/info here. That's both informative
: and encouraging.
y*n
113 楼
多谢耐心回答
提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 我建议你看PINGJIANG的微博，在文学城。过去看过些文章关于处理流程，有点忘了。
: FBI是一个，还有一个什么CHECK忘了，总之这些CHECK正常情况１个月够了。主要处理
: 的时间是收材料，录入４８５申请的数据，内部之间文件传送等等。
: 所以四个月是很正常的处理时间，TRACKITT上面ROWEB２一直CURRENT， 基本你看它提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
:
: 呢？
提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: 我建议你看PINGJIANG的微博，在文学城。过去看过些文章关于处理流程，有点忘了。
: FBI是一个，还有一个什么CHECK忘了，总之这些CHECK正常情况１个月够了。主要处理
: 的时间是收材料，录入４８５申请的数据，内部之间文件传送等等。
: 所以四个月是很正常的处理时间，TRACKITT上面ROWEB２一直CURRENT， 基本你看它提交时间到批准日的区间，４个月是大流。
:
: 呢？
r*n
114 楼
Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.
of
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.
of
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
r*n
115 楼
Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.
of
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.
of
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
r*n
116 楼
Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.
of
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
approvable cases before December.
of
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
s*v
117 楼
如果这的是这样，你应该推荐推荐你的律师。大部分都是混吃等死型，不出错就烧高香了
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, no, I am a petroleum engineer.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, no, I am a petroleum engineer.
r*n
118 楼
I think you will get EAP/AP this summer.
【在 s*****v 的大作中提到】
: 火箭大师，请问08年1月底的什么时候能拿到呢？明年4月有个会在加拿大，如果拿到了
: 就不用签证了。不然又是一番折腾谢谢！
:
: a
: folks
: in
【在 s*****v 的大作中提到】
: 火箭大师，请问08年1月底的什么时候能拿到呢？明年4月有个会在加拿大，如果拿到了
: 就不用签证了。不然又是一番折腾谢谢！
:
: a
: folks
: in
y*n
119 楼
说的是走PERM的
07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
【在 S******y 的大作中提到】
: 08最幸运？07/07 PD笑了
07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
【在 S******y 的大作中提到】
: 08最幸运？07/07 PD笑了
b*7
120 楼
说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
时候他自己才知道).
这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
时候他自己才知道).
r*n
121 楼
Thanks for your kind words!
I am not very sucessful!
I am a small engineer working for boss.
I like punching numbers.
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
I am not very sucessful!
I am a small engineer working for boss.
I like punching numbers.
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
J*t
122 楼
08，09，10 这3年eb2c最多也就2万人吧。
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
j*e
123 楼
移民法规定年度配额的同时，规定每个季度不得超过年度配额的27%.所以奥本也是按季
度分名额。见http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dosebn.html
“DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers ”
Quarterly Percentages
Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each
fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number
allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the
first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27
% of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the
DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the
fourth quarter of every year.
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
度分名额。见http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dosebn.html
“DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers ”
Quarterly Percentages
Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each
fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number
allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the
first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27
% of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the
DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the
fourth quarter of every year.
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
r*n
124 楼
yes, agree.
Mr.O is crazy and unpredictable.
Let's see what will happen.
【在 b********7 的大作中提到】
: 说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
: 这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
: 时候他自己才知道).
Mr.O is crazy and unpredictable.
Let's see what will happen.
【在 b********7 的大作中提到】
: 说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
: 这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
: 时候他自己才知道).
s*v
125 楼
也都有风险的，尤其是拿F visa，没有金刚钻一般不敢乱揽活
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
J*t
126 楼
我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
r*n
127 楼
yes, just because of these regulations, his only option is to admit more
cases in the summer, not in the next April.
In the summer, he can use the excuse that demand is not enough, but he can't
use this excuse in the next april.
27
the
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 移民法规定年度配额的同时，规定每个季度不得超过年度配额的27%.所以奥本也是按季
: 度分名额。见http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dosebn.html
: “DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers ”
: Quarterly Percentages
: Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each
: fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number
: allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the
: first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27
: % of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the
: DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the
cases in the summer, not in the next April.
In the summer, he can use the excuse that demand is not enough, but he can't
use this excuse in the next april.
27
the
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 移民法规定年度配额的同时，规定每个季度不得超过年度配额的27%.所以奥本也是按季
: 度分名额。见http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dosebn.html
: “DOS Answers Questions on Employment-Based Visa Numbers ”
: Quarterly Percentages
: Rather than making all visa numbers available at the beginning of each
: fiscal year and then having a period of unavailability, visa number
: allotments must be spread throughout the year. Therefore, in each of the
: first three quarters of every fiscal year, the DOS can only release up to 27
: % of the available visa numbers per category, per quarter. By contrast, the
: DOS confirmed that there is no percentage limit on visa numbers in the
a*l
128 楼
exactly.
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
: 倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
: 。
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: 标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多，10月必
: 倒退，9月前进少，10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下，谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
: 。
r*n
129 楼
no, much less than that!
totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
The chinese demand is very low.
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 08，09，10 这3年eb2c最多也就2万人吧。
:
: to
: least
: They
totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
The chinese demand is very low.
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 08，09，10 这3年eb2c最多也就2万人吧。
:
: to
: least
: They
r*n
130 楼
really? you are so sweet!
thanks again!
Best luck to all of us!
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
thanks again!
Best luck to all of us!
【在 a***n 的大作中提到】
: My feeling is, as rocketsfan predicted,
: Aug. VB will be around 2007.7 and Sept. VB around 2008.4, however I think
: Oct. VB will retro for sure. Just look at the pattern in the past couple of
: years.
i*t
131 楼
当年我律师的建议
硕士也可以交上niw
拿着EAD找到工作了
再让雇主给你弄h1-b
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw
硕士也可以交上niw
拿着EAD找到工作了
再让雇主给你弄h1-b
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw
j*e
132 楼
To be honest,我看不出9月排期跟明年是否会浪费SO之间有任何联系。奥本只要保证在
明年最后一个季度有足够的485被批，就能不浪费名额，他不需要什么excuse就能做到
这一点。
't
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, just because of these regulations, his only option is to admit more
: cases in the summer, not in the next April.
: In the summer, he can use the excuse that demand is not enough, but he can't
: use this excuse in the next april.
:
: 27
: the
明年最后一个季度有足够的485被批，就能不浪费名额，他不需要什么excuse就能做到
这一点。
't
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: yes, just because of these regulations, his only option is to admit more
: cases in the summer, not in the next April.
: In the summer, he can use the excuse that demand is not enough, but he can't
: use this excuse in the next april.
:
: 27
: the
J*t
133 楼
我都没想起来去咨询律师，刚毕业总觉得申请绿卡是很遥远的事情，其实当时h1b已经
递上去了
anyway，没有后悔药吃了
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: 当年我律师的建议
: 硕士也可以交上niw
: 拿着EAD找到工作了
: 再让雇主给你弄h1-b
递上去了
anyway，没有后悔药吃了
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: 当年我律师的建议
: 硕士也可以交上niw
: 拿着EAD找到工作了
: 再让雇主给你弄h1-b
e*e
134 楼
good!
only October, how about November, December, 01/2012,02/2012.... until my PD:)
Hope never retrogress, bless!
only October, how about November, December, 01/2012,02/2012.... until my PD:)
Hope never retrogress, bless!
y*n
135 楼
如果不回国的话，有什么风险？F1毕业后找工作走H1，然后老婆用EAD找工作所向披靡.
..
【在 s*****v 的大作中提到】
: 也都有风险的，尤其是拿F visa，没有金刚钻一般不敢乱揽活
..
【在 s*****v 的大作中提到】
: 也都有风险的，尤其是拿F visa，没有金刚钻一般不敢乱揽活
y*n
136 楼
exactly, 从“听说”，到上心，到着手联系律师，准备材料，time window也就几个礼
拜。
不是一般人如你我之辈能做得到的。
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw
拜。
不是一般人如你我之辈能做得到的。
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 我就是太不人精了，当年听说这事，但是一点都没想起来递一个niw
D*M
137 楼
走PERM的
06 和 07PD的拿EAD/AP<=1年
08PD>=3年。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
06 和 07PD的拿EAD/AP<=1年
08PD>=3年。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 说的是走PERM的
: 07/07PD的NIW的人，说实话，现实里都是些很专营的，人精一类的。
y*n
138 楼
其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
，说实话，不人道
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: 当年我律师的建议
: 硕士也可以交上niw
: 拿着EAD找到工作了
: 再让雇主给你弄h1-b
，说实话，不人道
【在 i******t 的大作中提到】
: 当年我律师的建议
: 硕士也可以交上niw
: 拿着EAD找到工作了
: 再让雇主给你弄h1-b
y*n
139 楼
11k和我看到的差不多
其中10年的最多，08年的其次，09年的最少。
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: no, much less than that!
: totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
: The chinese demand is very low.
其中10年的最多，08年的其次，09年的最少。
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: no, much less than that!
: totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
: The chinese demand is very low.
s*n
140 楼
Nobody knows whether there will be Spillover for the next year, let alone
the specific number. Those information will not be clear until 3q OF 2012!
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
the specific number. Those information will not be clear until 3q OF 2012!
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
D*M
141 楼
没错。
自己也pain。
EAD
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
: ，说实话，不人道
自己也pain。
EAD
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
: ，说实话，不人道
s*n
142 楼
This is not true. New cases that are submitted in July will be qualified for
visa numbers in OCt, 2011, given the avg 485 processing time=4 month.
There are a lot of people who missed the July 07 boat, such as me.
After a few years, you will know that the GC game is a balance of conflict
interest. The so-called rules are execuces.
is
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
: that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
: approvable cases before December.
:
: of
visa numbers in OCt, 2011, given the avg 485 processing time=4 month.
There are a lot of people who missed the July 07 boat, such as me.
After a few years, you will know that the GC game is a balance of conflict
interest. The so-called rules are execuces.
is
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if Mr.O is crazy and move our PD back too much, the only consequence is
: that our quota will be wasted big time because there won't be any
: approvable cases before December.
:
: of
s*n
143 楼
U should count depends as well!
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: no, much less than that!
: totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
: The chinese demand is very low.
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: no, much less than that!
: totally only 11k China PERM from 2007 to 2010.
: The chinese demand is very low.
y*n
144 楼
算了，前几天有ID给出了08,09,10年的perm数据：
2010： 1603
2009： 852
2008： 1491
x3也就12K不到
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: U should count depends as well!
2010： 1603
2009： 852
2008： 1491
x3也就12K不到
【在 s******n 的大作中提到】
: U should count depends as well!
J*t
145 楼
过一年这个版上还有人气吗？
assume 10%的人上这个版，09年才200人，一个月才20个人
话说回来，如果政策透明，数据清晰，这个版就不会存在了，
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 11k和我看到的差不多
: 其中10年的最多，08年的其次，09年的最少。
assume 10%的人上这个版，09年才200人，一个月才20个人
话说回来，如果政策透明，数据清晰，这个版就不会存在了，
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 11k和我看到的差不多
: 其中10年的最多，08年的其次，09年的最少。
d*u
146 楼
那就是说要浪费很多名额了?
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
all.
EB2
cases
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
: October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
: India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
: All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
: demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
: 1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
: around 1000 maximum.
: 2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand, very few of them can get through
: name check in such a short period. ONLY the cases that are ready for
: approval can count as demand. He believes maximum 20% of these 1000 PWMB cases
J*t
147 楼
怎么这么少啊，之前看的远远不止这么多啊，
是这个
perm: china, india
2007: 6846, 24573
2008: 3328, 16569
2009: 2094, 11387
2010: 4000, 29000【 在 yqwen (小少爷) 的大作中提到: 】
是这个
perm: china, india
2007: 6846, 24573
2008: 3328, 16569
2009: 2094, 11387
2010: 4000, 29000【 在 yqwen (小少爷) 的大作中提到: 】
D*M
148 楼
x3太多了。小孩不是公民的应该是少数。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 算了，前几天有ID给出了08,09,10年的perm数据：
: 2010： 1603
: 2009： 852
: 2008： 1491
: x3也就12K不到
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 算了，前几天有ID给出了08,09,10年的perm数据：
: 2010： 1603
: 2009： 852
: 2008： 1491
: x3也就12K不到
L*a
149 楼
其实
那三个礼拜真的不堪回首
不知道浪费了多少的脑细胞
跟ld两个人伏案埋头码字
据说后面发文章的字数都没有那时候写的多。。。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: exactly, 从“听说”，到上心，到着手联系律师，准备材料，time window也就几个礼
: 拜。
: 不是一般人如你我之辈能做得到的。
那三个礼拜真的不堪回首
不知道浪费了多少的脑细胞
跟ld两个人伏案埋头码字
据说后面发文章的字数都没有那时候写的多。。。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: exactly, 从“听说”，到上心，到着手联系律师，准备材料，time window也就几个礼
: 拜。
: 不是一般人如你我之辈能做得到的。
L*a
150 楼
没错，人是会呆傻掉的
EAD
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
: ，说实话，不人道
EAD
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 其实pain不在我们自己，往往是老婆，我同事里好几个老婆在家里，就巴巴得在等EAD
: ，说实话，不人道
D*M
151 楼
赞“所向披靡”。
靡.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 如果不回国的话，有什么风险？F1毕业后找工作走H1，然后老婆用EAD找工作所向披靡.
: ..
靡.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 如果不回国的话，有什么风险？F1毕业后找工作走H1，然后老婆用EAD找工作所向披靡.
: ..
y*n
152 楼
靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
budget）
然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
好好的offer给搅黄了。
当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
理解我们当时的悲催么？
【在 D**M 的大作中提到】
: 赞“所向披靡”。
:
: 靡.
好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
budget）
然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
好好的offer给搅黄了。
当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
理解我们当时的悲催么？
【在 D**M 的大作中提到】
: 赞“所向披靡”。
:
: 靡.
J*t
153 楼
你是男的啊，
看你头像以为你是女的
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？
看你头像以为你是女的
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？
a*l
154 楼
今年和后面几年肯定是不可能浪费任何名额的.那么多的eb3在那里了,都已经是pre-
approved的了,有多少名额就能消耗掉多少,绝对浪费不了.
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: To be honest,我看不出9月排期跟明年是否会浪费SO之间有任何联系。奥本只要保证在
: 明年最后一个季度有足够的485被批，就能不浪费名额，他不需要什么excuse就能做到
: 这一点。
:
: 't
approved的了,有多少名额就能消耗掉多少,绝对浪费不了.
【在 j*e 的大作中提到】
: To be honest,我看不出9月排期跟明年是否会浪费SO之间有任何联系。奥本只要保证在
: 明年最后一个季度有足够的485被批，就能不浪费名额，他不需要什么excuse就能做到
: 这一点。
:
: 't
B*g
155 楼
不给EB２C就是浪费，hoho。
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 今年和后面几年肯定是不可能浪费任何名额的.那么多的eb3在那里了,都已经是pre-
: approved的了,有多少名额就能消耗掉多少,绝对浪费不了.
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 今年和后面几年肯定是不可能浪费任何名额的.那么多的eb3在那里了,都已经是pre-
: approved的了,有多少名额就能消耗掉多少,绝对浪费不了.
y*n
156 楼
男的，照片是老婆的
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 你是男的啊，
: 看你头像以为你是女的
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 你是男的啊，
: 看你头像以为你是女的
f*r
157 楼
I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
.com
FY2010
767 2009
3307 2010
FY2009
254 2008
1876 2009
These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
by job title and/or prevailing salary?
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 怎么这么少啊，之前看的远远不止这么多啊，
: 是这个
: perm: china, india
: 2007: 6846, 24573
: 2008: 3328, 16569
: 2009: 2094, 11387
: 2010: 4000, 29000【 在 yqwen (小少爷) 的大作中提到: 】
.com
FY2010
767 2009
3307 2010
FY2009
254 2008
1876 2009
These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
by job title and/or prevailing salary?
【在 J********t 的大作中提到】
: 怎么这么少啊，之前看的远远不止这么多啊，
: 是这个
: perm: china, india
: 2007: 6846, 24573
: 2008: 3328, 16569
: 2009: 2094, 11387
: 2010: 4000, 29000【 在 yqwen (小少爷) 的大作中提到: 】
s*7
158 楼
哇，到现在才看到火箭盖了这么高一幢楼阿。。
那10月不倒退，会是好消息咯？
那10月不倒退，会是好消息咯？
l*7
159 楼
啊？为毛要把好好的ＯＦＦＥＲ脚黄啊？？？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？
L*a
160 楼
pp
可惜手挡住了
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 男的，照片是老婆的
可惜手挡住了
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 男的，照片是老婆的
s*7
161 楼
re
hoho。。。娶到pp的老婆，发包子吧
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: pp
: 可惜手挡住了
hoho。。。娶到pp的老婆，发包子吧
【在 L***a 的大作中提到】
: pp
: 可惜手挡住了
L*a
162 楼
热
【在 s******7 的大作中提到】
: re
: hoho。。。娶到pp的老婆，发包子吧
【在 s******7 的大作中提到】
: re
: hoho。。。娶到pp的老婆，发包子吧
b*9
163 楼
how about NIW?
flcdatacenter
【在 f***r 的大作中提到】
: I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
: .com
: FY2010
: 767 2009
: 3307 2010
: FY2009
: 254 2008
: 1876 2009
: These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
: I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
flcdatacenter
【在 f***r 的大作中提到】
: I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
: .com
: FY2010
: 767 2009
: 3307 2010
: FY2009
: 254 2008
: 1876 2009
: These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
: I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
D*M
164 楼
我见过更悲催的。07初的PD。无良律师填错支票金额导致退件错过大潮。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 靠，血泪感受啊，我老婆是中学老师，要中学给办个H1B，可真是难啊，两年前被lay，
: 好不容易找到下家（同学们，09年找老师，找得到就不容易啊，所有的town都在cut
: budget）
: 然后转H1，当时我自己的律师（公司钦定的）不肯走灵活路线（非要学校出那个$850-
: 学校是非赢利，那$1500不用出），结果找了个版上放照片做广告的无良律师，差点把
: 好好的offer给搅黄了。
: 当时那个无良货给我老婆打电话说，要做好准备，学校可能要rescind offer, 你们能
: 理解我们当时的悲催么？
f*r
165 楼
its certified perm only
【在 b********9 的大作中提到】
: how about NIW?
:
: flcdatacenter
【在 b********9 的大作中提到】
: how about NIW?
:
: flcdatacenter
w*l
166 楼
08Q1Q2 pd wont get their gcs until next summer.
Demand in Aug-Dec 2007 would certainly use up yearly quota, if those 08Q1Q2
can be approved, they should be covered with next year's SO.
at
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
: 所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
: all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。
Demand in Aug-Dec 2007 would certainly use up yearly quota, if those 08Q1Q2
can be approved, they should be covered with next year's SO.
at
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，08PD的perm很折腾，后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间，
: 所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们，尤其是08Q1Q2的，3年半拿到绿卡，not bad at
: all! 但当然，这是可遇不可求的。
y*n
167 楼
无良律师么，只知道让paralegal做paperwork, 自己签字，连给学校律师打个电话都不
敢，后来我自己律师要出手援救也太迟了（关于钱的事，他想了个很creative的办法）
，故事说过去，让我律师+他的paralegal笑翻！
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 啊？为毛要把好好的ＯＦＦＥＲ脚黄啊？？？
敢，后来我自己律师要出手援救也太迟了（关于钱的事，他想了个很creative的办法）
，故事说过去，让我律师+他的paralegal笑翻！
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 啊？为毛要把好好的ＯＦＦＥＲ脚黄啊？？？
B*g
168 楼
啥reative的办法？我猜就是律师给支票，然后再当服务费charge回来。
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 无良律师么，只知道让paralegal做paperwork, 自己签字，连给学校律师打个电话都不
: 敢，后来我自己律师要出手援救也太迟了（关于钱的事，他想了个很creative的办法）
: ，故事说过去，让我律师+他的paralegal笑翻！
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 无良律师么，只知道让paralegal做paperwork, 自己签字，连给学校律师打个电话都不
: 敢，后来我自己律师要出手援救也太迟了（关于钱的事，他想了个很creative的办法）
: ，故事说过去，让我律师+他的paralegal笑翻！
w*l
169 楼
Then the pd can surely move to 08Q3Q4 or even 09Q1 for EB2CI if there are 30
% more SO, which about 50K!
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
% more SO, which about 50K!
to
least
They
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: Yes, if you only focus on quarterly quota, they don't need to admit many
: cases in this summer.
: But at the same time we need to consider the yearly restraint, they have to
: admit more cases to consume next year's spill over.
: Although we are not sure next year's spill over, they need to admit at least
: 15000 cases if the next year's spill over is only 30% of this year's
: spillover.
: Next year's spillover should be more than 30% of this year's spillover. They
: have to admit more than 15k for sure!
:
y*n
170 楼
我律师说他先全埋单，然后等我自己file 140的时候，再假装给我寄个bill过来cover
我老婆的$850。 正经美国律师啊，我不把他逼到那个份上，是出不来这个歪点子的。
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 啥reative的办法？我猜就是律师给支票，然后再当服务费charge回来。
我老婆的$850。 正经美国律师啊，我不把他逼到那个份上，是出不来这个歪点子的。
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 啥reative的办法？我猜就是律师给支票，然后再当服务费charge回来。
s*7
171 楼
神马时候？
next summer？
30
【在 w*l 的大作中提到】
: Then the pd can surely move to 08Q3Q4 or even 09Q1 for EB2CI if there are 30
: % more SO, which about 50K!
:
: to
: least
: They
next summer？
30
【在 w*l 的大作中提到】
: Then the pd can surely move to 08Q3Q4 or even 09Q1 for EB2CI if there are 30
: % more SO, which about 50K!
:
: to
: least
: They
f*r
172 楼
by filtering out all the "level 1" jobs I got refined data
FY2009
190 2008
1198 2009
FY2010
524 2009
2102 2010
Those should be closer to EB2 China certified perms in those 2 years. again,
NIW not included.
flcdatacenter
【在 f***r 的大作中提到】
: I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
: .com
: FY2010
: 767 2009
: 3307 2010
: FY2009
: 254 2008
: 1876 2009
: These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
: I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
FY2009
190 2008
1198 2009
FY2010
524 2009
2102 2010
Those should be closer to EB2 China certified perms in those 2 years. again,
NIW not included.
flcdatacenter
【在 f***r 的大作中提到】
: I grabbed number of certified perm cases from the txt files on flcdatacenter
: .com
: FY2010
: 767 2009
: 3307 2010
: FY2009
: 254 2008
: 1876 2009
: These numbers are for both EB2 and EB3 China.
: I dont know how to filter EB2 only data. can someone give some pointers?
w*l
173 楼
By the end of next fiscal year.
This year has 35k-37k SO, 30% for next year would be around 50k. That really
can push EB2CI to almost the June/July of 2008.
【在 s******7 的大作中提到】
: 神马时候？
: next summer？
:
: 30
This year has 35k-37k SO, 30% for next year would be around 50k. That really
can push EB2CI to almost the June/July of 2008.
【在 s******7 的大作中提到】
: 神马时候？
: next summer？
:
: 30
S*k
174 楼
有人在iv上说:
Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
"Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.) "
然后那个admin 回:
It is incorrect from what we heard recently. This is all I can say on the
public forum.
比较有趣.
Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
"Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.) "
然后那个admin 回:
It is incorrect from what we heard recently. This is all I can say on the
public forum.
比较有趣.
a*n
175 楼
wql, what they said was "30%", not "30% more".
really
【在 w*l 的大作中提到】
: By the end of next fiscal year.
: This year has 35k-37k SO, 30% for next year would be around 50k. That really
: can push EB2CI to almost the June/July of 2008.
really
【在 w*l 的大作中提到】
: By the end of next fiscal year.
: This year has 35k-37k SO, 30% for next year would be around 50k. That really
: can push EB2CI to almost the June/July of 2008.
c*s
176 楼
lol
entitled
since
seventh
【在 S***k 的大作中提到】
: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped
entitled
since
seventh
【在 S***k 的大作中提到】
: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped
g*a
177 楼
pd 08年6月初的今年是不是不太可能递485了？
诶，急啊，等着绿卡换工作呢
诶，急啊，等着绿卡换工作呢
s*m
178 楼
我觉得没问题
【在 g*******a 的大作中提到】
: pd 08年6月初的今年是不是不太可能递485了？
: 诶，急啊，等着绿卡换工作呢
【在 g*******a 的大作中提到】
: pd 08年6月初的今年是不是不太可能递485了？
: 诶，急啊，等着绿卡换工作呢
l*7
179 楼
哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
entitled
since
seventh
【在 S***k 的大作中提到】
: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped
entitled
since
seventh
【在 S***k 的大作中提到】
: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped
b*n
180 楼
no somebody here also watering on iv, hehe
哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
entitled
since
seventh
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
:
: entitled
: since
: seventh
哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
entitled
since
seventh
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
:
: entitled
: since
: seventh
c*s
181 楼
lol
【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: no somebody here also watering on iv, hehe
:
: 哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
: entitled
: since
: seventh
【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: no somebody here also watering on iv, hehe
:
: 哈哈，三哥都来ＭＩＴ啦？
: entitled
: since
: seventh
S*r
182 楼
我觉得以后大家还是尽量用中文比较好
有些东西还是不要让A3知道为妙
有些东西还是不要让A3知道为妙
g*a
183 楼
谢谢，真的很希望如此啊，现在的工作做的难受死了
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得没问题
【在 s*****m 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得没问题
H*V
184 楼
all people who could submit their 485 in Aug can not get them approved in 2
or 3 months, the 485 processing needs couple of months, so in Oct, Nov, Dec
we (china) will not have more cases for GC.probably still those previous (<
Sept, 2007) cases
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07
or 3 months, the 485 processing needs couple of months, so in Oct, Nov, Dec
we (china) will not have more cases for GC.probably still those previous (<
Sept, 2007) cases
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 你说的没错，但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07
r*n
185 楼
The whole purpose of this topic was to prove that the demand in this winter
is lower than my original estimation.
There won't be too many approvable cases in Q1 of FY 2012. It does not make
any difference if they retrogress the PD or not.
Very few people can be processed in Q1 of FY 2012. Most of the PWMB cases
will be approved in this December of next spring.
2
Dec
【在 H*V 的大作中提到】
: all people who could submit their 485 in Aug can not get them approved in 2
: or 3 months, the 485 processing needs couple of months, so in Oct, Nov, Dec
: we (china) will not have more cases for GC.probably still those previous (<
: Sept, 2007) cases
is lower than my original estimation.
There won't be too many approvable cases in Q1 of FY 2012. It does not make
any difference if they retrogress the PD or not.
Very few people can be processed in Q1 of FY 2012. Most of the PWMB cases
will be approved in this December of next spring.
2
Dec
【在 H*V 的大作中提到】
: all people who could submit their 485 in Aug can not get them approved in 2
: or 3 months, the 485 processing needs couple of months, so in Oct, Nov, Dec
: we (china) will not have more cases for GC.probably still those previous (<
: Sept, 2007) cases
a*e
186 楼
谈不上理智不理智吧。。。大家思考角度不同而已。你们在这里老中烙印大比拼，在O
看来都是移民，没啥区别，他要做的无非就是让整个堆栈move的快点。
【在 b********7 的大作中提到】
: 说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
: 这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
: 时候他自己才知道).
看来都是移民，没啥区别，他要做的无非就是让整个堆栈move的快点。
【在 b********7 的大作中提到】
: 说实话. 这个预测是基于O有理智的前期下的. 实际情况是, O的大部分决定显示他没有
: 这种理智的分析能力. 所以具体10月EB2C会不会倒退, 只有他自己知道(或者说只有到
: 时候他自己才知道).
A*r
187 楼
re
in the
waited
Mr.
assigned
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: My personal opinion is that China EB2 should never have had retrogression in the
: first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
: horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
: for so long!
: The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
: O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
: 17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
: Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O himself didn't
: know the law clearly before 2007. Everything was a mess before 2007.
: Mr.O himself is self contradictory. He does things based on his personal
in the
waited
Mr.
assigned
【在 r********n 的大作中提到】
: My personal opinion is that China EB2 should never have had retrogression in the
: first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
: horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
: for so long!
: The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
: O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
: 17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
: Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O himself didn't
: know the law clearly before 2007. Everything was a mess before 2007.
: Mr.O himself is self contradictory. He does things based on his personal
r*e
188 楼
不管怎样，顶一个先！
A*g
189 楼
hehe, 懂中文的阿三
entitled
since
seventh
【在 S***k 的大作中提到】
: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped
entitled
since
seventh
【在 S***k 的大作中提到】
: 有人在iv上说:
: Some one on Chinese site posted that person with PD of 4/21/2008 got email
: for fees from NVC. If that is true then date will rest at least 4/15/2008
: for EB2 I C in Sep 2011 bulletin.
: "Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled
: to allotment of a visa
: number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since
: VO groups demand
: for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh
: of a month are grouped
a*l
190 楼
不要这么凶吧?还是给eb3的同学们留点活路吧.
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 不给EB２C就是浪费，hoho。
【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】
: 不给EB２C就是浪费，hoho。
m*a
191 楼
miss了2007/7大潮, 整天在门外风吹日晒,
我看不出来我幸运在哪里.
PD 2008.1月底.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
我看不出来我幸运在哪里.
PD 2008.1月底.
【在 y***n 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
: 的选择了，是好是坏不去说，但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
: 中国EB2在今后几年里，基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面，
: 情况随时会变...
: 说句马后炮的话：08PD是最幸运的。
:
: reasonable
s*e
192 楼
Feb. 2008. :(
f*r
193 楼
PD08 11月什么时候能递485？？
H*i
194 楼
August 2011
【在 f*****r 的大作中提到】
: PD08 11月什么时候能递485？？
【在 f*****r 的大作中提到】
: PD08 11月什么时候能递485？？
s*e
195 楼
Are you serious?
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: August 2011
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: August 2011
H*i
196 楼
my best wish
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: Are you serious?
【在 s*******e 的大作中提到】
: Are you serious?
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