Dylan McGrath
10/1/2012 1:11 PM EDT
IHS iSuppli slashes sales forecast amid high prices, lack of effective
market SAN FRANCISCO—Ultrabook sales are falling short of expectations amid
high pricing and lack of effective marketing, according to market research
firm IHS iSuppli, which cut its forecast for 2012 sales of the ultra-thin,
low-power notebook PCs.
IHS (El Segundo, Calif.) estimates that 10.3 million Ultrabooks will ship
this year, down from a previous forecast of 22 million. More than half of
2012 shipments are expected to occur in the fourth quarter, IHS said.
Ultrabooks—high-end, low-power notebook PCs—have failed to achieve
widespread popularity largely because of their price, which often hovers
around $1,000. To achieve the speed and performance gains specified,
Ultrabooks employ solid state drives, which remain far more costly than
traditional hard drives.
The reduced forecast for Ultrabook sales is a blow to Intel Corp., which
conceived of the Ultrabook concept and has pumped millions into marketing
the PCs. In April, Intel President and CEO Paul Otellini predicted that
Ultrabooks would soon hit "mainstream" price points as low as $699. But even
that price point may be too high for widespread adoption amid a flood of
other promising mobile computing devices like media tablets.
Craig Stice, senior principal analyst for compute platforms at IHS, said in
statement that the PC industry has failed to create the kind of buzz and
excitement needed to propel ultrabooks into the mainstream.
"There once was a time when everyone knew the 'Dude you're getting a Dell'
slogan. Nowadays no one can remember a tag line for a new PC product,
including for any single ultrabook," Stice said.
IHS also reduced its forecast for 2013 Ultrabook shipments. The firm now
expects shipments to rise to 44 million next year—more than quadruple the
2012 forecast, but down from an earlier forecast of 61 million.
Not too late
But IHS said the slow start by Ultrabooks can be overcome. The firm projects
shipments to continue to grow for the foreseeable future, exceeding 95
million units by 2016. This will drive long-term growth for devices used in
ultrabooks, including motion sensors, IHS said.
IHS said more Ultrabooks need to get below the $600 price range in order to
hit the volume level needed to enter the mainstream. If Ultrabooks using the
new Windows 8 operating system come close to the $600 to $700 range next
year, while adding in an attractive new consumer feature such as touchscreen
, chances for strong sales in 2013 are good. But if Ultrabooks stay at the $
1,000 level, their sales will continue to struggle in 2013 amid competition
from lower-priced options, such as tablets and smartphones, IHS said.
"With the economy languishing, Ultrabook sellers may have trouble finding
buyers at the current pricing, especially with fierce competition from new
mobile computing gadgets such as the iPhone 5, Kindle Fire HD and
forthcoming Microsoft Surface," Stice said.
Another factor cited by IHS for its Ultrabook forecast cut is the re-
categorizing of many notebooks amid Intel's increasingly stringent set of
definitions for Ultrabooks. Many notebooks once called ultrabooks now are
being now classified as "ultrathins," the firm said.
Intel isn't giving up on Ultrabooks in 2012. But IHS noted that the chip
giant is turning its attention to next year, saying at the recent Intel
Developer Forum (IDF) that it believes everything will come together with
the mid-2013 introduction of the company's new microprocessor, dubbed
Haswell. Intel described 2013 as a once-in-a-decade opportunity for
companies to reinvent the PC, with its new Haswell microprocessor catalyzing
the ultrabook revolution.
Haswell, Intel's fourth-generation core microprocessor family, is expected
to offer better performance with lower power consumption. Haswell will serve
as the main core microprocessor for ultrabooks, IHS said. The
microprocessor will provide Intel Identity Protection Technology to improve
security and will also support multiple displays and high-definition 4K
monitors with DisplayPort 1.2.
Beyond the ultrathin and ultralight form factor, Intel at IDF focused on new
consumer-friendly features to enhance the attraction of ultrabooks, IHS
said. The focus at several IDF briefings centered on touchscreen technology
in Ultrabooks, in conjunction with the Windows 8 launch in October, IHS said
. Intel claims 40 Ultrabook designs with touchscreens are in progress, the
firm said.
Other prominent new features being incorporated into the next-generation
ultrabooks are voice recognition; security features; multiple sensors
including GPS, accelerometers and gyroscopes; and hand-gesture recognition,
an attractive option for the gaming market, according to IHS.
