Visa Predictions from Charles Oppenheim
On October 24, 2012, in a meeting with Department of State officials, the
Visa Bulletin predictions were made. The news is glum for the India EB2
priority date, which will not move much the rest of this fiscal year, which
ends September 30, 2013. At best, it is expected that the EB2 category will
not advance beyond the first quarter of 2008, which ends on March 31, 2008.
EB2 China— May advance to the second half of 2008 by end of fiscal year
2013 (which ends on 9/30/13).
EB2 India—There are approximately 20,000 applicants for EB2 visa numbers in
the queue. The annual limit of EB2 visa numbers allocated to India is 2,803
EB2 numbers per year. No forward movement is likely in the foreseeable
future. The best case scenario is that India EB2 will advance to the first
quarter of 2008 by the end of fiscal year 2013. A ten year wait in the EB2
line for India is ever more likely.
EB2—ROW—Will likely remain current for the rest of fiscal year 2013.
EB3 ROW—Will likely advance 3-4 weeks per month during this fiscal year.
Note: There are substantial numbers of upgrades for the entire world from
EB3 to EB2 but the Department of State has no way to know the demand for
upgrade numbers under present USCIS protocols. DOS is not advised of
upgrades until USCIS requests an EB2 visa number for a person already in the
queue for an EB3 number. DOS receives thousands of requests per month from
all countries for upgrades. There will be 1/3 fewer visa numbers able to “
fall across” to India and China this year because of visa number demand
from the rest of the world.
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