About oil price (转载) - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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About oil price (转载)

About oil price (转载)# Investment - 投资

s*n2008-12-21 08:12

1 楼

【以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区】
发信人: siocsioc (sioc), 信区: Stock
标题: About oil price
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Dec 21 00:56:29 2008)
I worked for a project supported by SLB when I was in University. That was
two years ago. I visited their research center in Sugarland quite a few
times and have asked the senior engieers there about the lifting cost of
crude oil. By the way, they all believe Peak Oil theory. It was indeed about
2 USD/bbl in middleast at that time. but roughly 20 USD/bbl for domestic
production.O

T*t2008-12-21 08:12

2 楼

我最近在看一个石油公司。一桶油税前的cost差不多$22。包括所有
相关的cost of production and exploration, sg&a, and royalty

about

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: 【以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区】
: 发信人: siocsioc (sioc), 信区: Stock
: 标题: About oil price
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Dec 21 00:56:29 2008)
: I worked for a project supported by SLB when I was in University. That was
: two years ago. I visited their research center in Sugarland quite a few
: times and have asked the senior engieers there about the lifting cost of
: crude oil. By the way, they all believe Peak Oil theory. It was indeed about
: 2 USD/bbl in middleast at that time. but roughly 20 USD/bbl for domestic
: production.O

i*l2008-12-21 08:12

3 楼

那家？能否指教一二？

【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】

: 我最近在看一个石油公司。一桶油税前的cost差不多$22。包括所有
: 相关的cost of production and exploration, sg&a, and royalty
:
: about

T*t2008-12-21 08:12

4 楼

你老这么牛，无需指教了。
随便抓一家做油的公司，cost都差不多吧。$10--$40/bbl不等

【在 i******l 的大作中提到】

: 那家？能否指教一二？

i*l2008-12-21 08:12

5 楼

大侠过奖了
我们都是市场的小学生

【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】

: 你老这么牛，无需指教了。
: 随便抓一家做油的公司，cost都差不多吧。$10--$40/bbl不等

a*e2008-12-21 08:12

6 楼

蛋是泥是最好的小学生。

【在 i******l 的大作中提到】

: 大侠过奖了
: 我们都是市场的小学生

T*t2008-12-21 08:12

7 楼

nah...他老如果还是小学生的话，估计是留级生了。

【在 a**e 的大作中提到】

: 蛋是泥是最好的小学生。

b*e2008-12-21 08:12

8 楼

$40的恐怕很少
一般$10-20的居多
沙特$2……

【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】

: 你老这么牛，无需指教了。
: 随便抓一家做油的公司，cost都差不多吧。$10--$40/bbl不等

b*e2008-12-21 08:12

9 楼

想起小时候玩的H-18的游戏，同级生，下级生

【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】

: nah...他老如果还是小学生的话，估计是留级生了。

T*t2008-12-21 08:12

10 楼

你说的这个是operating cost...

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: $40的恐怕很少
: 一般$10-20的居多
: 沙特$2……

a*e2008-12-21 08:12

11 楼

大家都在谈oil的成本。但是有没有想到油公司完全可以裁员，停掉很多油矿，trading
中东的石油。
只要美元还是世界通行货币，还是大家需要的，那么一堆需要美元的国家即使不挣钱（
尤其只能靠油的国家），也要出口换货币。
如果按照成本算的话，这类东西应该按照最高成本计算，也就是油砂的成本。结果呢？
何况油公司这两年挣了太多的钱，过冬几年没问题，完全撑得过去。
不能说35仍有很大下降空间，但也不能就因为所谓美国成本就说35就是底，可以大捞特
捞了。

a*e2008-12-21 08:12

12 楼

John brother, my discussion is
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Environmental/31156056.html
we start to discuss in June.
I cannot see the future. I do agree crude price is good enough and seems
very attractive. However, I am a little concerned how long will crude stay in this price range (25-50).
1. OPEC said they would cut if price still crush till March. Based on what I
know, opec prediction normally is relative accurate and would affect price
several months later. it seems that they still expe

s*n2008-12-21 08:12

13 楼

Most of your points are based on one single assumption that the oil
price can be controlled by US government. If that's true, we can
all stop predicting because the government is a balance between
different powers and you and me and probably even the government
itself just have no idea where the balance will land. Personally,
I would rather look at supply and demand although most of the time
we'll have to take human over-reaction into account.

in this price range (25-50).
I

【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】

: John brother, my discussion is
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Environmental/31156056.html
: we start to discuss in June.
: I cannot see the future. I do agree crude price is good enough and seems
: very attractive. However, I am a little concerned how long will crude stay in this price range (25-50).
: 1. OPEC said they would cut if price still crush till March. Based on what I
: know, opec prediction normally is relative accurate and would affect price
: several months later. it seems that they still expe

a*e2008-12-21 08:12

14 楼

yes, my assumption is US could deeply affect oil price. if that is supply
and demand, there is no way for oil to jump to $140. In June several traders
in hedge funds said GS and MS began to build short positions to crude and
later everyone saw what happened.
Besides, if price determined by demand/supply, I assume oil/gas industry
should have similar profit margin with other industry (or a little higher
because their capital invests are huge), which means the price should be 30-
40 because US co

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: Most of your points are based on one single assumption that the oil
: price can be controlled by US government. If that's true, we can
: all stop predicting because the government is a balance between
: different powers and you and me and probably even the government
: itself just have no idea where the balance will land. Personally,
: I would rather look at supply and demand although most of the time
: we'll have to take human over-reaction into account.
:
: in this price range (25-50).
: I

s*n2008-12-21 08:12

15 楼

Why "if that is supply and demand, there is no way for oil to jump to
$140."? Do you have anything back your statement?
Saying that, however, I do agree $140 oil price has speculation in it.
However, it doesn't provide any evidence that the government has anything
to do with it. GS and MS' predictions don't really mean anything to me
neither. They made lots of predictions. Some happen to be right, and some
happen to be wrong.
As I said long time ago, oil price is totally demand driving. How much

【在 a*****e 的大作中提到】

: yes, my assumption is US could deeply affect oil price. if that is supply
: and demand, there is no way for oil to jump to $140. In June several traders
: in hedge funds said GS and MS began to build short positions to crude and
: later everyone saw what happened.
: Besides, if price determined by demand/supply, I assume oil/gas industry
: should have similar profit margin with other industry (or a little higher
: because their capital invests are huge), which means the price should be 30-
: 40 because US co

b*e2008-12-21 08:12

16 楼

这倒是

【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】

: 你说的这个是operating cost...