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最近要搞 android 驱动装了ubuntu,觉得真的不差了,除了字体
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最近要搞 android 驱动装了ubuntu,觉得真的不差了,除了字体# Linux - Linux 操作系统
c*t
1
下面画了张图,
1)IUL是代理给我的通过软件计算出来的,假设年收益率为8.67%。这个8.67%的数据是
过去20年通过IUL方式算出来的平均值。保险的cash value是减掉所有费用后的属于我
的钱。
2)我自己用同样的钱来投资,前三十年每年付了550的保险费用。每年收益仍然是8.67
%,同时交掉了35%的税。
3)total premium是我自己付的钱。
解释一下我所能想到的东西
1) whole life里面有各种隐藏费用--
但是下图IUL里面是cash value,已经刨除了各种费用。
2)IUL的收益没有那么高,在外面投资收益可能更高--
a)8.67%是过去20年平均值算出来的。
b)IUL的floor-cap的方式应该比外面的投资收益高。我记得看过数据说东京指数30年没
有什么变
化,但IUL方式算出来平均年增长为5%左右。SP500过去的十年增长也不高,IUL方式算
出来
的也在6.5%。
3)退休帐号里面的钱也不用交税,所以不应该减除35%税率--
IUL和退休帐号不应该是一个概念。IUL里面的应该是IRA之后额外投资的钱,可以随时
拿出来,放回去。
想来想去,我还是觉得IUL是好东西。我明白前几年我不会赚钱。但是一旦有了这个
工具,我将来的钱可以多余时放入投资,需要时拿出。应该值得我现在走资啊。
因为正在买IUL的过程中,可以随时反悔。请大牛拍醒我吧。谢谢
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e*r
2
我以前在美国是F1,曾经因为在美国居住时间超过5年填过1040表。 我回国工作
3年后以J1身份回来,学校里面目前没扣联邦税和州税。我这种情况到底要不要交税
啊?我仔细看了TAX TREATY的规定,没提及这种情况。上面只是说,只要我进入美国前
是中国居民,就可以享受这种免税。有经验的说说看
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k*7
3
我master毕业,学business的。OPT完了,三个月grace period也过了一半了,很绝望
想找个管理松点的社区大学,最好可以第一年就能允许CPT工作的,或是价格便宜的也
行。
谁知道什么好进的社区大学能推荐一下吗?就是申请程序很简单那种,不要推荐信
什么的,怕时间来不及。
哪位牛人知道的请帮帮忙!不胜感谢。
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u*r
4
发信人: littlecoch(H.J), 信区: Thoughts
标题: 别把你的一事无成归咎于知识付费
发信站: BBS未名空间站(Fri Sep 1 09:46:34 2017,GMT)
最近有一篇文章很火,和知识付费有关:
它说,知识付费,买的是 “知道”,却不是 “掌握”;
它说,知识付费,大部分是忽悠,只是在贩卖碎片化的知识;
它说,引领知识付费的那些大牛,其实是个打着卖知识的幌子,实则在卖焦虑感的
奸商。
这是一个信息泛滥的时代,知识太多,时间太快,我们太赶,而焦虑是每个人都必
须面对的现实。
不可否认,它道出了部分真相,但是因为焦虑而全盘否定知识付费的必要性,甚至
把自身存在的问题归咎于它,这种逻辑,却更像是在耍流氓。
知识付费,是对知识的尊重,彰显的是一种商业精神。
所谓商业精神,就是 “冒险,务实,开放,创新” 的处世精神。在15世纪的大航
海时代,哥伦布就凭借着商业精神发现了新大陆。
而我眼里的知识付费,从来不是一事无成的挡箭牌,而是自我成长的助推器。
◆便宜的背后,是深坑 ◆
有一次跟朋友吃饭,他说自己非常忙。一早要送小孩上学,下班之后还得挤公交,
回家买菜做饭,等吃完饭忙活完,已经到晚上 9 点了。
即使不在 996 的公司上班,每天也都生活在水深火热之中。
我问他,为啥不直接打个的回家呢?省时又省力,一天也就是花三四十块钱,一个
月也就多花六七百块,节省了你半个多小时,何乐而不为?
他恍然大悟,以前只顾着省眼前这点钱,却从来没有考虑过背后悄悄溜走的时间和
精力。
我们曾以为的理所当然,实则愚蠢至极,而在知识上,其实也一样。
我曾经就有过为了省下买书的钱,到处在网上搜索各种电子书的经历。折腾了半天
,终于找到了免费的文档,下载之后却发现内容残缺不全,而且还不方便即时阅读。
我过去为了捡个便宜,非得等到各大电商打折的时候才去买书。结果真到了那一天
,却已经忘了自己本该要读什么,更遗憾的是,我所期望的努力从来就没有开始过。
所有便宜的背后都是深坑。而知识上的付费,却往往能够有效避开那些隐形的大坑。
有个朋友,特别喜欢在苹果手机商店买各种 app,而且也乐于向我们推荐他觉得不
错的应用程序。
大家对于他这种肆无忌惮花钱买软件的行为,觉得很没必要,甚至嗤之以鼻,而我
,也曾经是笑话他的一员。
可当我明白注意力才是最宝贵的资源之后,才发现,他这种知识付费,不仅提高了
做事效率,而且避免了注意力的丢失。
当我们通过付费而获得了更多的时间和注意力,我们就能够将节省的心力放在更重
要的事情上。比如,专注于学习有用的知识,阅读更加优质的内容,打磨更深层次的认
知,等等。
知识不付费,就是一种穷人思维,贪图眼前的便宜,却吃着长远的亏。我们自以为
的小聪明,往往却是搬起了石头砸自己的脚。
而所谓大智若愚,就是懂得从表象看到本质,做出的事情看似吃亏,实则是最值当
的选择。
◆靠谱的知识付费,才是首选 ◆
既然要避开深坑,那知识付费就是我们的选择之一。
在如今风行的知识付费中,除了大牛们的内容专栏,还有各种知识网红的音频节目
,而之后的收费社群,小密圈,分答,在行,都如雨后春笋般涌现出来。
这琳琅满目的知识付费,看得人眼花缭乱,而焦虑往往在其中扮演着 “求知心切
” 的催化剂。
之前有人发过一篇文章,大概内容就是 “我可以月入五万,其实你也可以,加入
我的付费社群,你就能够实现财富的积累甚至自由”。
总还是有些明白人:
“看完了,觉得白费了阅读时间,看到上面说学两天就能把财务报表吃透,突然觉
得我的经理们大概是吃饱了撑着才会继续留在四大事务所里,每天过着苦哈哈的日子。
。。。。。”
“我有一个错觉,我们公司上百个合伙人大概都是傻的吧,还不如去开个收费社群
教人看财务报表呢!”
“两天的课程?这确定不是收智商税?”
“他根本没有说明白他是怎样月入 5 万的,更没有说清楚月入 5 万和他在社群里
承诺的知识付费有什么关系…。。。”
这样的知识付费,推敲起来,逻辑混乱,不过是给我们打了一针鸡血 —— “姜太
公钓鱼 —— 愿者上钩。”
这个世界,从来都不会有从天而降的大饼,一步登天的跃进往往是吹出来的泡沫,
一戳就破。
靠谱是这个时代最大的影响力,而靠谱的知识付费,才是我们的最佳选择。
那什么样的知识付费是靠谱的呢?
❶ 发起知识付费的人,得是个靠谱的人。
所谓靠谱的人,就是凡事有交代,件件有着落,事事有回音。
不要看 TA 怎么说,要看 TA 怎么做,更要了解 TA 因为拥有了哪些知识,TA 具
体做到了什么,达成了什么目标。
靠谱的人往往有担当,做事情有始有终,而 TA 推出的知识付费,往往也自带靠谱
的属性。
❷ 这类知识付费,要能真正满足我们某方面的学习需求。
我们首先要明确自己学习的目的是什么,才能知道我们要学习什么,从而之后的选
择才会是靠谱的。
明确了目标,在选择上就限定了一定的范围,找到那些能让我们达成目标的知识付
费,才会让我们最终学有所成。
❸ 靠谱的知识付费,核心本质是知识的价值。
社会节奏越快,人往往就越容易急功近利。而靠谱的知识付费,从来都不会利用焦
虑感来大做文章,而是不卑不亢地展示自身价值,童叟无欺。
它的目的是传授知识,促进个人的成长,而不是承诺你能一夜暴富。那些承诺 “
四个月赚到一百万”、“一年内实现财务自由” 的付费学习,才是真正的大忽悠。
如今我们所看到的一系列的知识付费产品,都是自由市场之下的商品交易,有人卖
就会有人买,无可厚非。
选择了靠谱的知识付费,就是找到了自我迭代的新大陆。而对待知识付费,我们要
做的是主动选择,而不是随波逐流。
◆别把知识付费当成失败的借口 ◆
知识付费之后,我们的学习才刚刚开始。
我在 6 月份上了一个写作课,刚开始的目的很明确,只是与爱好写作的人建立连
接,对于课程内容并没有太多的重视。
随着课程的渐渐深入,身边有些朋友说,没学到什么,写作能力并没有得到提高,
然后就开始对于付费写作课颇有微词。
那个时候,我也是其中吐槽的一份子。
直到有一天,我在写作的时候,忽然想到了写作课上提及的一些写作套路,然后就
决定按照那个逻辑框架来写文章。
结果文章出来之后,收到了很多正面的反馈。
我们都抱着不切实际的幻想,以为买了几个课程,订阅了几个专栏,学习了几句英
语,就可以毫不费力地精进到高手的境界,结果却是被现实 “啪啪啪” 打脸。
很多牛人的内容付费产品,从来都没有定位成一个拯救者,而只是标榜为助人成长
的工具。知识付费,只是为我们提供了一个知识输送的渠道,但并不保证我们付费了就
能够拥有导师那般的认知高度和成功。
难道我们自己学不好,还要怪别人不应该出来卖吗?
学了感觉没用,甚至更加焦虑,一方面是因为我们太懒,不愿意把学习到的知识运
用到实践当中去。人生没有捷径,而学习知识,不仅仅是学,还要学以致用。
另一方面,是我们大多数时候注重的是 “学”,却忽视了 “习”。知识,不是学
了之后就自动内化的,而是需要反复琢磨,反复咀嚼,反复运用,才能形成我们大脑的
一套意识自动化程序,而这就是所谓的 “学而时习之”。
就像开车的老司机,根本不用多想,就知道什么时候该怎样打方向盘。
一直以来我都有独立思考的习惯,从每天的清晨反思日记,到从阅读中的分享输出
。有输入,就必须有输出,而且还需要在这两者之间寻求到一种平衡。
这种平衡,其实是一种动态的平衡,因为输入得多了,输出也自然增多,以达到平
衡,而输出多了,又需要大量的输入来调节这个平衡态。
只有不断维持知识学习和运用的这种平衡态,我们才能真正从 “知道知识” 过渡
到 “掌握知识”,最终形成自己的一套思维模式。
其实,我们应该感谢那些知识付费的缔造者,他们让我们重新重视了知识,让 “
知识就是力量,知识创造财富” 这样的观念重新被纳入到日常的生活中。
而知识付费,就是对知识,对人才最大的尊重。知识付费,重要的不是付费,而是
付费之后的 “学以致用”,其关键在于我们自己。
一个好的学习者,明白自己要学什么,为什么而学,也很清楚自己该怎样去学。TA
的学习,不依赖于学习的平台或者形式,也从不将自己的失败推卸到别人身上。
这是个最坏的时代,信息的爆炸让我们迷茫而焦虑;这也是个最好的时代,我们可
以通过付费获得有用的知识,不断进步。
如果你心存抱怨,还没发现这个世界的美好,那是因为你只用眼睛向外看,却没有
用心向内看。
凡事用心,着眼于自身,我们才能遇见更好的自己。
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a*y
5
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wavelets (无法承重之轻) 于 (Thu Mar 18 20:43:08 2010, 美东) 提到:
你们游戏上再牛的认识也牛不过写doom,quake的 Carmack吧.
游戏界偶像派的人物2008年就宣布了:
iphone handset is “more powerful than a Nintendo DS and PSP combined”
source:
http://www.mobilecrunch.com/2008/08/01/carmack-on-iphone-more-powerful-than-nintendo-ds-psp-combined/
烦请铁蹄piglet专业抄送TVGame版.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ronaldinho10 (苹果,微软,狗狗) 于 (Thu Mar 18 21:16:11 2010, 美东) 提到:
这也是一家之言,需要拿出数据来说话。

☆─────────────
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s*n
6
快6年没用过了。也有什么taskbar,还有聊天工具挂上面。
outlook就上owa. msn现在没有人用了。
开发用netbeans.
安装软件比以前简单多了。
看到了/etc下面一堆配置文件还是很激动啊。多年前用linux的感觉全回来了。尼玛
win7上还有一层层鼠标点进去啊。
问题 还是字体太丑了。term用哪个好?貌似现有的还不如win7下面的power shell好看。
有米有能媲美 ctrl+alt+1的那个字符终端的?
浏览器和界面字体怎么设能比较好看?
avatar
r*m
7
Do a simple comparison you will see why IUL doesn't fit for most middle
class families -
IUL (option 1) vs. Term + Index ETF (option 2)
You can test with any past 30 years actual historical annual return data , I
am positive option 2 will be at least 15%, if not more, better than option
1 - based on after-tax numbers (most people became too excited when they saw
something that could save them tax and forget to ask: could my cost
outweigh my savings?)
Also, IUL's index doesn't account for dividend payout, which you already
lose around 2% per year (based on historical average).
PM me if you need help to set up an easy spreadsheet for you to run.
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t*g
8
把你的信息放到cintax里试了一下,你如果去年待够了183天就是resident alien了,然
后你的这个三年免税的treaty仍然适用.

【在 e*****r 的大作中提到】
: 我以前在美国是F1,曾经因为在美国居住时间超过5年填过1040表。 我回国工作
: 3年后以J1身份回来,学校里面目前没扣联邦税和州税。我这种情况到底要不要交税
: 啊?我仔细看了TAX TREATY的规定,没提及这种情况。上面只是说,只要我进入美国前
: 是中国居民,就可以享受这种免税。有经验的说说看

avatar
k*7
9
没人吗?郁闷的自己顶。。
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l*s
10
can you say say how to build the development platform? I am interested in
android as well.
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c*t
11
谢谢你的回复。
你认为IUL的问题在于收益太低,对吧。而Index ETF 收益比IUL高?请问过去index
ETF的年均收益是多少?请问可以和大家分享一下数据么?
另外过去的三十年有二十年经历了互联网和房地产增长,将来未必可重复。我倒觉得美
国将来会更像日本过去的二十年,指数没有什么改变。
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s*n
12
晕啊。不高内核很简单吧。
下载androik sdk bundle。解开。一个目录是eclipse,直接运行就可以。
一个目录是sdk.需要把tools和platform-tools加到path里面。adb貌似有点问题,
ln -s到其他目录下。
usb需要陪一下,到android的网站上查手机型号代码,和配置指南吧。
然后就开搞吧。

【在 l*********s 的大作中提到】
: can you say say how to build the development platform? I am interested in
: android as well.

avatar
r*m
13
Two problems with IUL:
1) IUL's return is lower than Index ETF for sure, because lack of dividend
payout.
2) Expense too high.
As long as you are dollar cost averaging in investing in index, you will be
fine (yes, even in the Japanese market), because if not, all your other bets
will be a lot worse.
It's all about relativity, you can't say a product is good or bad by
evaluating the product itself, you need to ask - do I have a better
alternative? And here I am telling you an absolutely better one (at least
relative to IUL).
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l*s
14
Many thanks!

【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 晕啊。不高内核很简单吧。
: 下载androik sdk bundle。解开。一个目录是eclipse,直接运行就可以。
: 一个目录是sdk.需要把tools和platform-tools加到path里面。adb貌似有点问题,
: ln -s到其他目录下。
: usb需要陪一下,到android的网站上查手机型号代码,和配置指南吧。
: 然后就开搞吧。

avatar
r*m
15
Another thing - 8.67% is problematic, for two reasons:
a) Historically, average return should be around 6%
b) Because IUL's index return excl dividend contribution, it should be 2%
lower.
avatar
z*r
16
用圆体或者雅黑,无敌

看。

【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 快6年没用过了。也有什么taskbar,还有聊天工具挂上面。
: outlook就上owa. msn现在没有人用了。
: 开发用netbeans.
: 安装软件比以前简单多了。
: 看到了/etc下面一堆配置文件还是很激动啊。多年前用linux的感觉全回来了。尼玛
: win7上还有一层层鼠标点进去啊。
: 问题 还是字体太丑了。term用哪个好?貌似现有的还不如win7下面的power shell好看。
: 有米有能媲美 ctrl+alt+1的那个字符终端的?
: 浏览器和界面字体怎么设能比较好看?

avatar
c*t
17
谢谢
还是有点糊涂,IUL的floor-cap机制不是应该让return高么。最简单的例子,我在2013
年已经投入了所有的钱,
假设指数
2013: 1800
2014: 1500
2015:1800
指数基金应该是没有return。IUL为1% (2013-2014跌16%,floor)+13.5%(2013-2014涨20
%,cap)
换句话说,对于一个波动的,但不上涨的市场,IUL应该优势非常大啊。
还有,IUL为啥要做dollar cost averaging?肯定是放的越多越好,floor-cap机制应该
能够保护自己的资产。
最后,为什么你认为IUL expense too high呢?按照规定,只有最开始八年的admin
fee ,以及放钱的6%,20元的管理费而已。莫非还有别的隐藏费用?
avatar
z*r
18
另外,android用的中文字体是方正的黑体,也是一个很优秀的字体

【在 z**r 的大作中提到】
: 用圆体或者雅黑,无敌
:
: 看。

avatar
r*m
19
IUL为啥要做dollar cost averaging?
>> 2 reasons:
a) There is 7-pay limitation on IUL, you can't invest a lot one-time.
b) In the long term, index will go up, but in the short term, it has
fluctuations, so you better DCA because nobody knows when is the peak and
when is the trough.
为什么你认为IUL expense too high呢?按照规定,只有最开始八年的admin
fee ,以及放钱的6%,20元的管理费而已。
>> Isn't this enough? Calculate how much the expenses you already
identified will earn you in 30 years, after-tax. You will be surprised how
much it could be. Is it worth the "tax saving" you will get?
莫非还有别的隐藏费用?
>> Yes, a lot higher COI compare with Term life, ask the salesperson.
Don't forget the dividend missed year after year, many people think it's
just the little thing, until they run the numbers.
avatar
d*u
20
"一层层鼠标点进去"
这是什么行医呀

看。

【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 快6年没用过了。也有什么taskbar,还有聊天工具挂上面。
: outlook就上owa. msn现在没有人用了。
: 开发用netbeans.
: 安装软件比以前简单多了。
: 看到了/etc下面一堆配置文件还是很激动啊。多年前用linux的感觉全回来了。尼玛
: win7上还有一层层鼠标点进去啊。
: 问题 还是字体太丑了。term用哪个好?貌似现有的还不如win7下面的power shell好看。
: 有米有能媲美 ctrl+alt+1的那个字符终端的?
: 浏览器和界面字体怎么设能比较好看?

avatar
c*t
21
谢谢redsim的介绍。
但还是不明白你的推理,你一直在讲IUL cost有多高。我首页的两张图,已经减掉IUL
的各种费用了啊。但长期来看,IUL明显比after tax的投资要好。
到最后还是简单的比较
IUL cap-floor的计算的收益率比较ETF+dividend哪个高
有历史数据看看就好了
现在变的更疑惑了,钱往哪里投啊?

how

【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
: IUL为啥要做dollar cost averaging?
: >> 2 reasons:
: a) There is 7-pay limitation on IUL, you can't invest a lot one-time.
: b) In the long term, index will go up, but in the short term, it has
: fluctuations, so you better DCA because nobody knows when is the peak and
: when is the trough.
: 为什么你认为IUL expense too high呢?按照规定,只有最开始八年的admin
: fee ,以及放钱的6%,20元的管理费而已。
: >> Isn't this enough? Calculate how much the expenses you already
: identified will earn you in 30 years, after-tax. You will be surprised how

avatar
m*5
22
做驱动似乎都涉及到内核啊,另外如果app带驱动,是不是得root之后才可以装?
这个我一直搞不清楚,请大侠们解释一下
各位用过ADK么?这玩意儿只能开发蓝牙和USB设备?而且必须arduino板子?
比如我想弄一个外设,外设会产生一个事件,唤醒android phone处理和记录数据,这
感觉蓝牙和USB设备无力啊...
另外以前的PDA可以通过CF卡口扩展设备,现在的SD口能用来扩展外设么?

【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 晕啊。不高内核很简单吧。
: 下载androik sdk bundle。解开。一个目录是eclipse,直接运行就可以。
: 一个目录是sdk.需要把tools和platform-tools加到path里面。adb貌似有点问题,
: ln -s到其他目录下。
: usb需要陪一下,到android的网站上查手机型号代码,和配置指南吧。
: 然后就开搞吧。

avatar
z*a
23
For investing yourself, the 35% tax assumption is too high. With a buy and
hold investment strategy, you only pay taxes on dividends while holding the
investment and long term capital gains when you sell. Of course, if you
invest through a Roth IRA, there are no taxes at all (on dividends or gains).

67

【在 c********t 的大作中提到】
: 下面画了张图,
: 1)IUL是代理给我的通过软件计算出来的,假设年收益率为8.67%。这个8.67%的数据是
: 过去20年通过IUL方式算出来的平均值。保险的cash value是减掉所有费用后的属于我
: 的钱。
: 2)我自己用同样的钱来投资,前三十年每年付了550的保险费用。每年收益仍然是8.67
: %,同时交掉了35%的税。
: 3)total premium是我自己付的钱。
: 解释一下我所能想到的东西
: 1) whole life里面有各种隐藏费用--
: 但是下图IUL里面是cash value,已经刨除了各种费用。

avatar
s*n
24
这个我还真不清楚。
这几天写文章,驱动的事情先歇着了。
我要做的和你做有点类似。都是处理内部传感器的中断,现在的驱动都不处理。
你要做外设,也可以搞个中断,然后驱动程序的函数被调用,唤醒android,
java level 广播intent,处理时间。
我们可以共同探讨

【在 m********5 的大作中提到】
: 做驱动似乎都涉及到内核啊,另外如果app带驱动,是不是得root之后才可以装?
: 这个我一直搞不清楚,请大侠们解释一下
: 各位用过ADK么?这玩意儿只能开发蓝牙和USB设备?而且必须arduino板子?
: 比如我想弄一个外设,外设会产生一个事件,唤醒android phone处理和记录数据,这
: 感觉蓝牙和USB设备无力啊...
: 另外以前的PDA可以通过CF卡口扩展设备,现在的SD口能用来扩展外设么?

avatar
S*C
25
My old post
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Investment/31276089_3.html

67

【在 c********t 的大作中提到】
: 下面画了张图,
: 1)IUL是代理给我的通过软件计算出来的,假设年收益率为8.67%。这个8.67%的数据是
: 过去20年通过IUL方式算出来的平均值。保险的cash value是减掉所有费用后的属于我
: 的钱。
: 2)我自己用同样的钱来投资,前三十年每年付了550的保险费用。每年收益仍然是8.67
: %,同时交掉了35%的税。
: 3)total premium是我自己付的钱。
: 解释一下我所能想到的东西
: 1) whole life里面有各种隐藏费用--
: 但是下图IUL里面是cash value,已经刨除了各种费用。

avatar
m*5
26

多谢回复,有些设备在休眠时候蓝牙和USB根本就不供电,感觉用ADK比较无力。

【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 这个我还真不清楚。
: 这几天写文章,驱动的事情先歇着了。
: 我要做的和你做有点类似。都是处理内部传感器的中断,现在的驱动都不处理。
: 你要做外设,也可以搞个中断,然后驱动程序的函数被调用,唤醒android,
: java level 广播intent,处理时间。
: 我们可以共同探讨

avatar
r*m
27
"想来想去,我还是觉得IUL是好东西。我明白前几年我不会赚钱。但是一旦有了这个工
具,我将来的钱可以多余时放入投资,需要时拿出。应该值得我现在走资啊。"
Based on your comments above, I can safely say:
1. You still don't know IUL (you don't know what you don't know)
2. Your agent didn't explain this to you (either s/he doesn't know or doesn'
t want to tell you).
First of all, the high cost/low return discussions above should already
clearly tell you that IUL's cash value will be significantly less than the
other alternative (Term+Index ETF), there is no arguments on that.
Now, another fundamental mistake most IUL buyers make - "这就是我的小免税银
行,多余的钱就往里放,需要的时候就往外拿".
Well, only we wish insurance companies work for you!
我用一个例子和一些数字来说明吧:
You bought a $500K IUL at age 40 with annual contribution $15K, assume
annual return 6% and for simplicity's sake, ignore any cost. At age 50,
your cash value grows to $210K.
If you die at 1 day after age 50, your beneficiary will get $500K.
Now, at age 45, you found your income has increased and you could contribute
a little more each year, say $5K more. So you contributed total $25K more
when you arrive at age 50. Add some gains, assume the total incremental "
savings" is $30K.
So your new cash value at age 50 becomes $240K (=$210K+$30K).
And you still die at 1 day after age 50.
Will your beneficiary get $500K+$30K?
No, still the same $500K!
That $30K "savings" just went to the pocket of the insurance company!
Note: the above illustration is a little simplified, as there will be some
COI adjustment due to additional cash value, but you should get the main
idea.
avatar
m*a
28
如果你有闲钱,家庭年收入在15万到20万或以上
就概念来说IUL是个好东西。
但现实的问题是费用太高,举个例子,说白了就是美国政府本来想通过这个工具减轻自
己的负担,给了我们100块钱做incentive,结果保险公司拿走了90块,我们只剩10块钱
的incentive。相对来说就没那么吸引人了。

67

【在 c********t 的大作中提到】
: 下面画了张图,
: 1)IUL是代理给我的通过软件计算出来的,假设年收益率为8.67%。这个8.67%的数据是
: 过去20年通过IUL方式算出来的平均值。保险的cash value是减掉所有费用后的属于我
: 的钱。
: 2)我自己用同样的钱来投资,前三十年每年付了550的保险费用。每年收益仍然是8.67
: %,同时交掉了35%的税。
: 3)total premium是我自己付的钱。
: 解释一下我所能想到的东西
: 1) whole life里面有各种隐藏费用--
: 但是下图IUL里面是cash value,已经刨除了各种费用。

avatar
j*8
29
agent说IUL还有个好处说是子女上大学申请奖学金,这个是不算在计算的财产范围之内
的,有利于申请到奖学金,比529计划要好,请说说这个是不是真的?
avatar
r*m
30
1. cash value of insurance 不算在计算的财产范围之内 - always true
2. 有利于申请到奖学金 - partially true with conditions
3. 比529计划要好 - wrong
Now I will explain why 2 is partially true and why 3 is just plain wrong
using some numbers.
My assumption will be based on a typical middle class family's situation,
numbers might be rough but hopefully you get the point.
If you have planned to save $10K per year to 529 plan over 10 years, at the
time when you need it, assume it grows to $150K.
529 plan is counted as your asset, which will be discounted at about 10%
level before applying a "grading factor" to calculate your "expected family
contribution" towards college expense (your income carries 100% weight).
The grading factor is about 1/3, it will be applied to the discounted asset
amount. Net net, your $150K 529 asset will have $150K*10%*(1/3) = $5K
potential negative impact on your child's college financial aid eligibility.
(I say potential, because financial aid has many forms, only one form =
free money, for most other forms you have to pay interest or work and you
might not work it for your child anyway)
However, 529 plan has tax benefits, the $50K will result in at least $50K*15
%=$7.5K long term capital gain tax saving (many states have state tax saving
as well, not counted here), which is real saving for sure, and more than
the possible $5K negative impact.
Now, someone will remind you - IUL has no tax impact. True.
But your next question is - in order to avoid the $5K potential negative
impact, how much do you have to pay.
The answer - more than 10 times of the $5K possible saving you can expect.
For details, please Google this board, there are already too many threads
discussing why IUL doesn't fit middle class families. After studying them,
please come back asking for questions not answered in those discussions.
In the end, IUL helps 子女上大学申请奖学金 is just another form of marketing
gimmicks used by the sales people. Don't fall into the trap.
avatar
c*t
31
说实话,我就觉得IUL有一个优点,就是假设未来20年只波动,但不增长。IUL的回报
会比普通的投资多。
avatar
r*m
32
"假设未来20年只波动,但不增长。IUL的回报会比普通的投资多。"
This statement is too vague, it's best to let numbers talk.
But even from a qualitative perspective, in a flat market, as long as the
market fluctuates, and as long as you do dollar cost averaging, your low
cost investment should still beat IUL, for two key reasons -
1) the IUL's initial years' costs are simply too high, it offsets any
benefits brought by it;
2) in a down market, your investment will have more purchasing power!
avatar
l*n
33
看了这里的讨论,也用了一年的IUL, 有几点想请教一下,
1. IUL的expense很清楚,每月大概$180的deductions and fee, 每次deposit抽取6%,为
什么
你认为费用很高呢? 7年以后基本上不用再往里放钱后,那点费用基本可忽略了吧?
2.IUL本来就是根据INDEX的增长给你利息,你没有股票,当然不会有DIVIDENT.
3. IUL帐号里的钱是免税的,这应该是最大的优点了。
4.IUL另一个好处是不怕股市大跌,longterm 的平均年收益要于股票吧,特别是近13年。
用了一年的IUL,几天刚看了statement,INDEX account去年的interest rate是13.25%
(lock rate),觉得很满意了。当然过去一年是牛市,股票收益会更多,但从投资多元化,
和长远来看,IUL是一个不错的产品。特别是对30多岁,每年不缺这1万多闲钱的家庭来
说,
越早开户越好,而且最好每年放满。
本人不是任何保险公司的托,只想和大家分享一下经验。当初开户后看了这里的讨论,
感觉有点上当,心理有点慌。今天仔细看了statement,感觉和当初听到的差不多。准备
长期坚持放下去。
avatar
r*m
34
lemin,
I don't know your unique situation, but chances are (see exceptions below),
你上当了!
Your honest comments tell me you missed the point of all the IUL discussion
- you cannot just look at IUL's performance itself and say, this is a good
or bad product.
You need to have a benchmark to judge IUL, and a fair one is Term+Index ETF
(let's call this option 2).
1) You already pointed out IUL's fee, do you know how low the fee in option
2 is? You might think the difference in each year is small, but do you know
how much the difference between the two options' fees will grow in 30 years
? (You will be amazed by the number, I always say this - the most important
factor in one's success in investment is long term compounding, with IUL,
you already lost that edge).
2) Ditto for the missed dividend yield, year after year, with IUL. You
already realized it now (but I am willing to bet you didn't know this when
you opened your IUL account, because if you did, you wouldn't tolerate this
big disadvantage in IUL!). Just Google to see how significant dividend
yield is to one's long term success in investing.
3)You do have tax savings, but you know you paid for it with the missed
opportunities! Furthermore, when you enter into retirement time and want to
use the money, you have two options, unfortunately both are bad:
a) you can close IUL to take money out, in this case, your will be subject
to income tax which is a very big number, so I assume most people will do as
agents tell them -
b) take loan out of IUL, that is "free money".
Do you really believe it's free money?
First of all, it's YOUR money, not something insurance company gives to you.

Second, if you die during the period, insurance companies will deduct it
from your payout, so it isn't free!
Third, I bet most people don't know this - when you take money out of IUL
for retirement use, thinking you got a good tax-free deal, your cost of
insurance will be up, guess how expensive insurance will be at your
retirement time? What agent showed you at the time of opening the policy
that small insurance premium you have to pay as you getting older (thanks to
your increasing cash value in the policy) now all of a sudden becomes a
monster!
Because of the above reasons, IUL is really for super wealthy families to
leave money for children, not for policy owners' own use.
You might say, OK, I will leave IUL to my kids, and I won't touch them in my
own retirement time. Fine, but you still paid a hefty price for this
option, and because you can do the same with option 2, with more money for
your kids. Wealthy families need IUL to avoid estate tax, but for most
middle class families, that's not a concern (the $5M limit will be inflation
adjusted, so you can imagine in 30 years, it will be more than $10M, if
that's your concern, IUL is OK for you, although for super wealthy families,
there will be better products than IUL).
4) Yes, IUL prevented loss in a down market, but you also got capped on the
upside. In the long term, since the market will be up, you actually will
like the down markets because with dollar cost averaging, you will
accumulate more shares in ETF, and you will end up being a big winner in the
end!
I'm an insurance agent, I can sell IUL to anyone, but my conscience tells me
, for most working families, just help them get the lowest cost Term, and
point out the way to invest in low cost indext ETF's, I will have a very
good night's sleep, every day, so will my clients!
Maybe someday I should write an ebook to show the good, bad, and ugly of IUL!
avatar
l*n
35
term has its limitation. After 20/25 years, if you are still alive,
you will not be insured, if you buy another life insurance at that time,
the cost will be much higher.
Most people who do investment have trading account. They can buy index ETF
too. But not all their money. They also have saving account, and maybe
invest
in CD. The return from saving account and CD is much lower than IUL in long
term, and IUL provide you a perm life insurance.
In the past 10 years, SPY increase 60% plus 2% non compound divident.
IUL has average 10% compound interest annually.It is huge difference.
For me, IUL provide me perm life insurance, and a low risk, at least much
higher
rate financial product than saving and CD. My strategy is to accumulate cash
value
in IUL as fast as possible. After I have 100k in it, I will not touch it in
30
years unless in emergency. Maybe in the first 7 years,I have less money to
invest
in index ETF, stocks, or other financial product. But after that, the
interest from
IUL will cover the premium. I can invest more in stock market. It is hard to
say
I have big loss than if I invest these money in index ETF. Because it is
hard for
INDEX increase a lot. BULL market usually does not last longer than 5 years.
IUL does not require you to be super wealthy. Even you have a lot of money,
you can
only put less than 20k into it when you in are 30 years.And when you are in
40's,
you have enough cash value in it, you don't have to put money in it unless
you
want. total 100k in 7 years is not a big money at least for mid class like
me.
IUL is just one a financial produc. People need to build its own portfolio.
You
can not say one investment is good, the other is 骗人. Good investment also
need
good strategy. I would like to learn any good suggestion in investment and
do my
judgement based on my financial situation.
avatar
l*g
36
当然对保险业的人来说,确实是不错,越复杂也越有可能忽悠,吃饭嘛,可以理解
很多金融产品的设计理念都一样,所谓浑水摸鱼,呵呵

long

【在 l***n 的大作中提到】
: term has its limitation. After 20/25 years, if you are still alive,
: you will not be insured, if you buy another life insurance at that time,
: the cost will be much higher.
: Most people who do investment have trading account. They can buy index ETF
: too. But not all their money. They also have saving account, and maybe
: invest
: in CD. The return from saving account and CD is much lower than IUL in long
: term, and IUL provide you a perm life insurance.
: In the past 10 years, SPY increase 60% plus 2% non compound divident.
: IUL has average 10% compound interest annually.It is huge difference.

avatar
l*r
37
这种自问自答的99%都是托
理他们浪费时间

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8

【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 当然对保险业的人来说,确实是不错,越复杂也越有可能忽悠,吃饭嘛,可以理解
: 很多金融产品的设计理念都一样,所谓浑水摸鱼,呵呵
:
: long

avatar
l*g
38
嗯,年纪大了,回复一下以后方便查找,不然记不住哪几个是托,嘿嘿

【在 l******r 的大作中提到】
: 这种自问自答的99%都是托
: 理他们浪费时间
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8

avatar
j*8
39
唉呀,按你这么说,iul确实是忽悠人的。但是我刚刚交了2个月1700元,如果退出,钱
就没了。你觉得还是及早退出止损,买term吗?
avatar
r*m
40
If you keep it for 30 years, your loss will be FAR BIGGER than the 2 months'
money. Just treat it as a price paid for a lesson. Sorry.
avatar
r*m
41
I want to address some of the comments from lemin, as many of the
misunderstandings are very common, so this could serve as an education for
other people as well.
1) Term has a limited period, IUL gives me permanent life.
Let's say you bought $500K IUL, and year after year your contribution to it
leads to cash value of $1M at age 85. Do you know how much insurance you
will be getting at that time? Very little, for example, only about $50K.
In fact, this is precisely the reason when an agent shows you IUL's
insurance premiums, they don't look outrageously high even you get older,
because as your cash value grows, the amount of required insurance coverage
is shrinking. In other words, you are not really getting a permanent life
insurance as you thought!
You are just getting self insured, thanks to your growing cash value, which
could be a much larger amount, even after-tax, if you invest in index ETF in
the long term!
Can you use any of the IUL cash value? Yes, but with hefty price that
probably no one told you about.
Your agent might have told you that you could use it free in the form of
loan, but let's say you take out $200K for your retirement use, your
insurance coverage will not be that $50K anymore, it will be in the
neighborhood of $250K! Imagine how expensive your insurance premium will be
as you are in an older age with such a bigger insurance coverage. You
probably want to think twice when you say you still want a Permanent life
insurance (because the truth is, most likely you don't, unless you want to
leave a large amount of assets to your children and want to avoid estate tax
).
You certainly can't find this large insurance premium number in your initial
illustration, because if you do, you will walk away from this expensive and
not practical product (for middle class families who need access to this
money)!
2) IUL is better than CD/Savings/S&P in the past 10 years.
I always recommend people put 3-6 months rainy day funds in a safe but
liquid CD/Savings account, then invest the rest in low cost index ETF for
long term.
In the past 10 or so years, S&P didn't go anywhere, but I want to point out
two things:
a) IUL investment is not for just 10 years, it's for probably 30 or more
years! I have asked before, let me ask again - who can find any single 30-
year period in history IUL outperformed the index, please share with all of
us here!
b) Even in the past 12 years, if you do DCA, your result today will be
BETTER than IUL, please just pull a spreadsheet and run the numbers by
yourself!
3) I think the rest of your comments are just about confusion of cash value
from IUL, those are YOUR own money, which by now you should have realized
will be a bigger amount if you invested in our recommended alternative, and
along the way, unlike IUL, nobody will make a penny from YOUR money (index
ETF's annual expense is only around 0.1%)!
4) IUL is a legit product, but when someone sells you an ill-fit product, I
have to say 你上当了, 他或她骗人了 :(
avatar
z*a
42
From 1979 to 2012, annualized total return of the Russell 1000 index (
including dividends) is 11.453% per year.
If the yearly index total returns are capped between 1% and 13.5%, then the
annualized return is only 9.138% per year.
Assuming ETF expenses of 0.15% per year, $1 invested in the Russell 1000 at
the start of 1979 will be worth $38.10 at the end of 2012.
For an IUL with yearly returns capped between 1% and 13.5%, $1 invested at
the start of 1979 will be worth $19.55 at the end of 2012.

【在 c********t 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你的回复。
: 你认为IUL的问题在于收益太低,对吧。而Index ETF 收益比IUL高?请问过去index
: ETF的年均收益是多少?请问可以和大家分享一下数据么?
: 另外过去的三十年有二十年经历了互联网和房地产增长,将来未必可重复。我倒觉得美
: 国将来会更像日本过去的二十年,指数没有什么改变。

avatar
l*g
43
嗯,sunk cost

months'

【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
: If you keep it for 30 years, your loss will be FAR BIGGER than the 2 months'
: money. Just treat it as a price paid for a lesson. Sorry.

avatar
r*m
44
IUL's cash value will be even less than $19.55 because it doesn't capture
dividend yields.

the
at

【在 z*****a 的大作中提到】
: From 1979 to 2012, annualized total return of the Russell 1000 index (
: including dividends) is 11.453% per year.
: If the yearly index total returns are capped between 1% and 13.5%, then the
: annualized return is only 9.138% per year.
: Assuming ETF expenses of 0.15% per year, $1 invested in the Russell 1000 at
: the start of 1979 will be worth $38.10 at the end of 2012.
: For an IUL with yearly returns capped between 1% and 13.5%, $1 invested at
: the start of 1979 will be worth $19.55 at the end of 2012.

avatar
c*0
45
I do totally Agree with the comments.
Just add several points:
1. Life insurance needs is to cover your future income inflow. If you
retired, as said, you can self insure with some liquid assets if you do not
have any estate taxes (Net worth over 5.25 million). And always, give out
your personal information such as age, goal before this kind of posting.
Some products may fit you. So the whole perspective of treating an insurance
product as an investment is wrong.
2. Any cash value product is covering: mortality risk, and grow of cash
value.
3. The cash value growth is mostly like a bond, so you are buying a
mortality risk coverage together with a bond.
4. The benefit of Universal life is that you have flexibility of premiums
payment, the coverage can be lifetime, and the death benefits may increase
or not. Again, why do you need life time coverage? Bequest motivation? Tax
issues?
5. Loans from insurance product is not free (they need to make money), it is
not like you withdraw cash from your checking accounts.

it
coverage

【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
: I want to address some of the comments from lemin, as many of the
: misunderstandings are very common, so this could serve as an education for
: other people as well.
: 1) Term has a limited period, IUL gives me permanent life.
: Let's say you bought $500K IUL, and year after year your contribution to it
: leads to cash value of $1M at age 85. Do you know how much insurance you
: will be getting at that time? Very little, for example, only about $50K.
: In fact, this is precisely the reason when an agent shows you IUL's
: insurance premiums, they don't look outrageously high even you get older,
: because as your cash value grows, the amount of required insurance coverage

avatar
m*a
46
现在的人都是人云亦云
IUL的确复杂,你最好自己去研究一下看是否适合你自己的情况

【在 j******8 的大作中提到】
: 唉呀,按你这么说,iul确实是忽悠人的。但是我刚刚交了2个月1700元,如果退出,钱
: 就没了。你觉得还是及早退出止损,买term吗?

avatar
r*5
47
IUL 绝对有它的好出,但问题就是如何使用它。举个例子,如果你资金有限,放的是下
限,IUL 将会吃掉很多本金,尤其是当市场不好的时后--这里是说回报较低(<8%).
8.7%的回报是平均数,不是每年都是的。但是如果你有闲钱,能多放,不要放最少,那
么回报不仅可以抵消所有开销,还能使得你的本金增长,长期(>20 年)是非常好的,
加上税收的好处,恐怕没有几个投资能比得上。IUL 就想一把屠龙刀,用的好时杀一切
,不好时,可能对自己不好。最后,不要相信一边倒的言论,评估一下自己的家庭情况
,做出最有益自己家的选择。
avatar
r*m
48
"长期(>20 年)是非常好的"
看到这, Term+Index investing 笑了.
avatar
f*o
49
昨天被人拉去听了这个讲座, 回来看了这里的讨论, 自己也动手写了个程序算了一遍
先不考虑他们的各种management fee, 只和S&P 500 三十年比收益 (1982-2012)
dividend 算 30%的税, 再投入index
IUL年收益100% match S&P with ceiling [0%, 12%]
1. 如果只考虑第一年投入的钱($1), 30年后
SP with div: $17.31
IUL: $8.24
2. 考虑每年投入相同数量的钱($1)买, 30年后
SP with div: $152.14
IUL: $110.34
3. 不考虑dividend, 只考虑第一年投入的钱($1), 30年后
SP w/o div: $10.12 (8.02%)
IUL: $8.24 (7.29%)
看起来IUL不是什么好的投资方式, 如果再考虑到他家各种高额fee的话

67

【在 c********t 的大作中提到】
: 下面画了张图,
: 1)IUL是代理给我的通过软件计算出来的,假设年收益率为8.67%。这个8.67%的数据是
: 过去20年通过IUL方式算出来的平均值。保险的cash value是减掉所有费用后的属于我
: 的钱。
: 2)我自己用同样的钱来投资,前三十年每年付了550的保险费用。每年收益仍然是8.67
: %,同时交掉了35%的税。
: 3)total premium是我自己付的钱。
: 解释一下我所能想到的东西
: 1) whole life里面有各种隐藏费用--
: 但是下图IUL里面是cash value,已经刨除了各种费用。

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