T*e
2 楼
【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: afei (阿飞), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 来,聊聊昨天的侦查记吧(5)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 9 21:29:38 2008)
在统战了一个警察以后,我们又开到了ferry那边的终点。我靠,有情况呀,有一群人
在搭帐篷,还和警察争论着。我们立刻拿起各种器械下了车,这里要揭发一下,老刘尤
其恶劣,好像是拿的在美国几乎绝迹的七种武器之板砖。我靠。
了解了情况,原来是兄弟部队,是bayareadragon的人,他们准备提前一个晚上就把终
点这边可能被袭击的要点都用帐篷占了,然后自己就蹲里面守一个晚上。但是显然,警
察觉得三番的homeless这份很有前途的职业不能随便outsourcing给中国,所以产生了
严重的争论。我们过去的时候好像听见bayareadragon的同志正在讲道理“你说这土地
是私有的,你叫它它答应么?你叫呀你。”
我们尤其佩服的是,bayareadragon派来的部队居然超过一半是女士。有几个弱小的已
经冻成熊猫一样了。我们又是上去对着警察一顿"gu
发信人: afei (阿飞), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 来,聊聊昨天的侦查记吧(5)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 9 21:29:38 2008)
在统战了一个警察以后,我们又开到了ferry那边的终点。我靠,有情况呀,有一群人
在搭帐篷,还和警察争论着。我们立刻拿起各种器械下了车,这里要揭发一下,老刘尤
其恶劣,好像是拿的在美国几乎绝迹的七种武器之板砖。我靠。
了解了情况,原来是兄弟部队,是bayareadragon的人,他们准备提前一个晚上就把终
点这边可能被袭击的要点都用帐篷占了,然后自己就蹲里面守一个晚上。但是显然,警
察觉得三番的homeless这份很有前途的职业不能随便outsourcing给中国,所以产生了
严重的争论。我们过去的时候好像听见bayareadragon的同志正在讲道理“你说这土地
是私有的,你叫它它答应么?你叫呀你。”
我们尤其佩服的是,bayareadragon派来的部队居然超过一半是女士。有几个弱小的已
经冻成熊猫一样了。我们又是上去对着警察一顿"gu
K*D
9 楼
Not that simple. You forgot all the people who made money out of the
bubble.
Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 这些钱从来就没有存在过。
: 比如A公司,股票给炒到$100,市值号称牛B轰轰的100亿,你觉得这100亿真的存在么?
: 真的象小山一样实打实的堆在那里可以全部或大部分套现么?一旦形势不好,有人开始
: 抛售,公司业绩下滑,全面经济萧条,如雪崩一样,你其实发现这股票就值一个钢蹦(
: 真实故事)。
: 同理,股市也一样。
bubble.
Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 这些钱从来就没有存在过。
: 比如A公司,股票给炒到$100,市值号称牛B轰轰的100亿,你觉得这100亿真的存在么?
: 真的象小山一样实打实的堆在那里可以全部或大部分套现么?一旦形势不好,有人开始
: 抛售,公司业绩下滑,全面经济萧条,如雪崩一样,你其实发现这股票就值一个钢蹦(
: 真实故事)。
: 同理,股市也一样。
u*d
10 楼
this is not true. say, 90% of the shares fo Company A were bought at $1
before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
called wealth destruction is on paper.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Not that simple. You forgot all the people who made money out of the
: bubble.
: Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
: will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
called wealth destruction is on paper.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Not that simple. You forgot all the people who made money out of the
: bubble.
: Basically, if there is only one bubble in the whole economy, the money
: will not evaporate. It just changes hand.
f*g
11 楼
K*D
16 楼
Ok, I see your point.
I thought most people who got in at $1 would have sold all shares
before it reaches $1000... hehe, I forgot the greediness.
But again, how do stock market evaluate the "wealth"? Remember once
GOOG had a glitch and traded at $0.01? It recovered above $300 almost
immediately. Does that mean for that minute, Google Inc's wealth
shrinked to zero?
I personally won't consider myself wealthier if I see a +100% spike
of my stock at market close, with a minimal volume. I need to see
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: this is not true. say, 90% of the shares fo Company A were bought at $1
: before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
: was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
: at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
: real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
: than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
: called wealth destruction is on paper.
I thought most people who got in at $1 would have sold all shares
before it reaches $1000... hehe, I forgot the greediness.
But again, how do stock market evaluate the "wealth"? Remember once
GOOG had a glitch and traded at $0.01? It recovered above $300 almost
immediately. Does that mean for that minute, Google Inc's wealth
shrinked to zero?
I personally won't consider myself wealthier if I see a +100% spike
of my stock at market close, with a minimal volume. I need to see
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: this is not true. say, 90% of the shares fo Company A were bought at $1
: before the bubble was inflated, then 5% was traded at $100 when the bubble
: was inflated half-way, and 5% was traded/bought at $1000 when the bubble was
: at its full swing. The market cap of A has grown 100 times, but how much
: real money was actually invested in? The average cost of the shares is less
: than $2, and far less than $1000. So, when the bubble deflate, all the so
: called wealth destruction is on paper.
u*d
17 楼
hehe, price is all about supply and demand, nothing else. One of my friends
described to me vividly what happened to the Florida housing market.
Everybody was holding and holding, nobody wanted to sell, so the supply drys
up...until one day, literally over one night (or couple of nights I guess),
everybody started to sell at the same time, price plunged, multi-year
housing boom is over.
I still try to comprehend that "one night" description.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ok, I see your point.
: I thought most people who got in at $1 would have sold all shares
: before it reaches $1000... hehe, I forgot the greediness.
: But again, how do stock market evaluate the "wealth"? Remember once
: GOOG had a glitch and traded at $0.01? It recovered above $300 almost
: immediately. Does that mean for that minute, Google Inc's wealth
: shrinked to zero?
: I personally won't consider myself wealthier if I see a +100% spike
: of my stock at market close, with a minimal volume. I need to see
described to me vividly what happened to the Florida housing market.
Everybody was holding and holding, nobody wanted to sell, so the supply drys
up...until one day, literally over one night (or couple of nights I guess),
everybody started to sell at the same time, price plunged, multi-year
housing boom is over.
I still try to comprehend that "one night" description.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ok, I see your point.
: I thought most people who got in at $1 would have sold all shares
: before it reaches $1000... hehe, I forgot the greediness.
: But again, how do stock market evaluate the "wealth"? Remember once
: GOOG had a glitch and traded at $0.01? It recovered above $300 almost
: immediately. Does that mean for that minute, Google Inc's wealth
: shrinked to zero?
: I personally won't consider myself wealthier if I see a +100% spike
: of my stock at market close, with a minimal volume. I need to see
f*r
20 楼
交易了的钱就转手了嘛,没交易的就是不存在的。牛市时不断有人来接手,不断把钱转
去前面的人,等找不到转手的人了,最后那个人就破产了。但是虽然票面价钱增加了,
没有进行交易的那部分钱都是不存在的,比如你1块钱买的,涨到10块, 你没出手,那
9块都是不存在的。
去前面的人,等找不到转手的人了,最后那个人就破产了。但是虽然票面价钱增加了,
没有进行交易的那部分钱都是不存在的,比如你1块钱买的,涨到10块, 你没出手,那
9块都是不存在的。
f*t
24 楼
let us make a simple model.
if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
the market.
2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
is too much.
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 你的脑筋没有转过来,并不是所有的大米都被实实在在的交易过(你所谓的实实在在付
: 出的钱)。股市的股票,只有一部分是一路交易上来的。被交易的部分是确实有人赚钱
: 有人亏钱的,但是大部分的股票并没有被交易过,价格却也随着交易价格变化,从而产
: 生了泡沫。
if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
the market.
2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
is too much.
【在 p********t 的大作中提到】
: 你的脑筋没有转过来,并不是所有的大米都被实实在在的交易过(你所谓的实实在在付
: 出的钱)。股市的股票,只有一部分是一路交易上来的。被交易的部分是确实有人赚钱
: 有人亏钱的,但是大部分的股票并没有被交易过,价格却也随着交易价格变化,从而产
: 生了泡沫。
u*n
25 楼
Why "when the price is up, then gov needs to print money"? it is much more
like "when gov print too much money which leads too much money chase rice/
cloth/house hence price inflation". No?
in
flow
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: let us make a simple model.
: if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
: 1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
: the market.
: 2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
: is too much.
like "when gov print too much money which leads too much money chase rice/
cloth/house hence price inflation". No?
in
flow
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: let us make a simple model.
: if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
: 1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
: the market.
: 2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
: is too much.
f*t
26 楼
assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
come from? print?
more
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: Why "when the price is up, then gov needs to print money"? it is much more
: like "when gov print too much money which leads too much money chase rice/
: cloth/house hence price inflation". No?
:
: in
: flow
let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
come from? print?
more
【在 u*****n 的大作中提到】
: Why "when the price is up, then gov needs to print money"? it is much more
: like "when gov print too much money which leads too much money chase rice/
: cloth/house hence price inflation". No?
:
: in
: flow
s*d
28 楼
every is poorer because they mistakenly thought they were rich
when the stock market was in orgasm.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: so even in the very very very deep depression,
: it is: some is richer, some is poorer,
: it is not this case: every one is poorer?
: I think in the very very very deep depression, every one is poorer.
p*t
30 楼
With your assumption(which is definitely wrong in the real world), the $100
can be paid off in the form of debt.
If B agrees, even C doesn't have any cash, he/she owns the rice now, owing $
100 to B. That's the current situation, right?
1.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
: let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
: He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
: Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
: come from? print?
:
: more
can be paid off in the form of debt.
If B agrees, even C doesn't have any cash, he/she owns the rice now, owing $
100 to B. That's the current situation, right?
1.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
: let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
: He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
: Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
: come from? print?
:
: more
p*t
31 楼
There is not enough paper money in this world. That is the problem now. You
miss something called debt. Not all goods are traded in paper money.
in
flow
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: let us make a simple model.
: if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
: 1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
: the market.
: 2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
: is too much.
miss something called debt. Not all goods are traded in paper money.
in
flow
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: let us make a simple model.
: if all rice are actually trade except the last holder,
: 1) when the price is up, then gov needs to print money, more paper money in
: the market.
: 2) when the price is down, then where is the money? paper money in the flow
: is too much.
K*D
32 楼
No, in that case B won't sell his rice in 1 year.
A more reasonable case would be: B wants to sell rice for $2, because
rice suddenly becomes rare.
C and D decide to chip in and come up with $2 and bought the rice.
They then share the bag, each having 50%.
Now back to your question: if B sells rice for $100 and succeeded,
it means there are at least $100 floating cash out there. That's why
I said before: "if rice is the only bubble in the economy, then money
just changed hands, didn't disappear.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
: let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
: He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
: Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
: come from? print?
:
: more
A more reasonable case would be: B wants to sell rice for $2, because
rice suddenly becomes rare.
C and D decide to chip in and come up with $2 and bought the rice.
They then share the bag, each having 50%.
Now back to your question: if B sells rice for $100 and succeeded,
it means there are at least $100 floating cash out there. That's why
I said before: "if rice is the only bubble in the economy, then money
just changed hands, didn't disappear.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: assumption --> if all rice are actually trade except the last holder
: let us say 10 people, each have $1, there is A has 10 rices, each worthy $1.
: He sells rich to other 9 people, so A has all $10.
: Now rice is up, B wants to sell rice to C for $100. Where does the money
: come from? print?
:
: more
f*t
33 楼
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