【 以下文字转载自 Seattle 讨论区 】
发信人: huduo (huduo), 信区: Seattle
标 题: Windows cannot lose
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 12 01:47:41 2011, 美东)
That was the scariest company meeting I've been to that I can remember. "
Windows cannot lose" rings with a desperation that tells me things will come
crashing down pretty quickly once it becomes clear that Windows 8 is no
savior.
That Windows 8 is no savior is becoming increasingly clear to me after BUILD
. Windows 8 is really two OS'es side-by-side, the old desktop Windows and
the brand new Metro OS. The people that would upgrade to the old desktop
Windows simply don't exist in significant numbers, because Windows 7 is more
than good enough. Why would any consumer or business want to upgrade from
Windows 7 to desktop Windows 8? Remember Windows XP only just got overtaken
after about 10 years. And very few users will want to use both desktop
Windows and Metro on the same device.
So let's focus on the brand new Metro OS. Other than the fact that it has
the "Windows" brand on it, what sets it apart from the iPad? Or from the
Kindle Fire and other Android tablets that are going to flood the market
over the next 1 - 2 years? Nothing really. We deperately need to convince a
large number of 1) developers into thinking a large number of consumers will
buy the Windows Metro OS, and 2) consumers into thinking the Metro OS
somehow has anything to do with Windows (it doesn't) or that it's
significantly superior to the iPad (it won't be).
Unlike desktop Windows, the brand new Metro OS has no "lock in", no legacy
apps that only run on it. It will have to compete on merit, and judging from
Microsoft's past success in competing on merit, the odds are not in our
favor.
The brand new Metro OS is really Windows Phone 7 part deux. And we all know
how well that's going.
All the talk of "once you use the touch UI you'll never want to go back"
reeks of the same deperation, borne out of the need to blend the two OSes
from the public's perspective.
Even *if* Windows 8 is a success in the tablet market, what does it buy us?
We'll just be one of many competitors in a very crowded space, and unlike
Apple that makes 99% of profit on the hardware (which we won't be selling),
or Google that makes 99% of the profit on search queries, we'll only take
home a tiny licensing fee. And everyone knows that Microsoft only makes a
tiny portion of its revenue/profit from selling Windows to the consumer (as
opposed to businesses).
So even if Windows 8 is a success, it won't move the stock price much. I
fear that Microsoft will at *best* stay in the $25 - $30 range (or move with
the market) until 2015. I hope I'm wrong, although I'm not going to plan on
being so.
