万佛，5个包子求一篇phd thesis# PhotoGear - 摄影器材
r*m
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今天SPY 60 min chart算是完成了一个1-2-3 trend change的过程，因此至少短期对牛
牛不利，特别是ChiOsc还很高，see dashed red line，此后都有不同程度的pullback
，也因此收盘前的反弹可以看作back test Double Top neckline (see SPY 15 min
chart at bottom)，不排除明天继续下跌的可能。总体上，我认为pullback to Fib 23
.6% at $115.15到Double Top textbook target $114.77之间还是有可能的。
另外一个对牛牛特别不利的是今天有个extremely low TICK，有些exchanger甚至
report今天有个record low TICK。下面的图应该很清楚，红色虚线远远多于绿色虚线
，换句话说就是几天内a lower low or lower close almost guaranteed。
牛牛的希望有两个，不过我权衡再三，认为这两个希望也许不能都往牛里解释，当然牛
牛有知情权，所以这里一并说明一下。
从八月底开始的rally，一共有三次较大的回调，每次都是SPX 25点，今天正好也是25
点，所以有可能pullback今天已经结束了。当然，也许可能大概第三次会不一样，所以
我才认为这个理由不是很strong，反而可以往熊熊方解释。
今天形成了一个back to back unfilled gap，按理应该很快会补，问题是熊熊也有个
back to back unfilled gap，所以目前也难说是否绝对对牛牛有利。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26
OR 11/04
今天又多了个不祥之兆，就是IBM ER后跌了，interestingly根据Bespoke的统计，IBM
ER后跌，有80%的可能意味着SPX red in 5 weeks。
Follow up一下AAPL，虽然AAPL ER后跌了，不过很遗憾，MACD还是too stretched。
另外，可能也不要指望AAPL短期内大反弹，理由是ChiOsc is way too high now，看看
红虚线后都发生了什么就明白了。
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either
around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details.
Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term
bearish view:
1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, VIX:VXV is too low and
statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good
for the broad market.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are
way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity
related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.
牛不利，特别是ChiOsc还很高，see dashed red line，此后都有不同程度的pullback
，也因此收盘前的反弹可以看作back test Double Top neckline (see SPY 15 min
chart at bottom)，不排除明天继续下跌的可能。总体上，我认为pullback to Fib 23
.6% at $115.15到Double Top textbook target $114.77之间还是有可能的。
另外一个对牛牛特别不利的是今天有个extremely low TICK，有些exchanger甚至
report今天有个record low TICK。下面的图应该很清楚，红色虚线远远多于绿色虚线
，换句话说就是几天内a lower low or lower close almost guaranteed。
牛牛的希望有两个，不过我权衡再三，认为这两个希望也许不能都往牛里解释，当然牛
牛有知情权，所以这里一并说明一下。
从八月底开始的rally，一共有三次较大的回调，每次都是SPX 25点，今天正好也是25
点，所以有可能pullback今天已经结束了。当然，也许可能大概第三次会不一样，所以
我才认为这个理由不是很strong，反而可以往熊熊方解释。
今天形成了一个back to back unfilled gap，按理应该很快会补，问题是熊熊也有个
back to back unfilled gap，所以目前也难说是否绝对对牛牛有利。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26
OR 11/04
今天又多了个不祥之兆，就是IBM ER后跌了，interestingly根据Bespoke的统计，IBM
ER后跌，有80%的可能意味着SPX red in 5 weeks。
Follow up一下AAPL，虽然AAPL ER后跌了，不过很遗憾，MACD还是too stretched。
另外，可能也不要指望AAPL短期内大反弹，理由是ChiOsc is way too high now，看看
红虚线后都发生了什么就明白了。
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either
around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details.
Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term
bearish view:
1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, VIX:VXV is too low and
statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good
for the broad market.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are
way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity
related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.
