DSLR价格半衰期--献给纠结的孩子们# PhotoGear - 摄影器材
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Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
lives of three to five years.
What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
wait a little longer?
If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 4 months, or the
price will decrease 2.8% each month.
If the price has a half life of 5 years (pro bodies), then we expect the
price to decrease by 10% approximately every 9 months! The price will drop
just over 1% each month!
For example, the current price of D3S is approximately $5000, if I am
willing to spend $2500, I may be able to afford a Nikon D3S in 5 years (it
is possible that it will be discontinued long before that time or I may get
it earlier if I consider second-hand market). If I just want to wait for one
year, I expect the price to be around $4200 by then: if I saw that price
before that time, it is probably a good deal (e.g., this may happen around
Thanksgiving or Christmas)!
Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
lives of three to five years.
What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
wait a little longer?
If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 4 months, or the
price will decrease 2.8% each month.
If the price has a half life of 5 years (pro bodies), then we expect the
price to decrease by 10% approximately every 9 months! The price will drop
just over 1% each month!
For example, the current price of D3S is approximately $5000, if I am
willing to spend $2500, I may be able to afford a Nikon D3S in 5 years (it
is possible that it will be discontinued long before that time or I may get
it earlier if I consider second-hand market). If I just want to wait for one
year, I expect the price to be around $4200 by then: if I saw that price
before that time, it is probably a good deal (e.g., this may happen around
Thanksgiving or Christmas)!
