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k*8
1
CICC Says Global Banks Too Bullish on China Stocks as Pimco Buys
April 14, 2011, 1:22 PM EDT
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- China’s biggest investment bank is turning “
cautious” on the country’s stocks, just as six of its overseas rivals and
the manager of the largest mutual fund say it’s time to buy.
China International Capital Corp. predicts slowing economic and earnings
growth will limit equity gains after the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
rose 6.2 percent this year, the best advance among major Asian indexes. The
top-ranked provider of China research in Asiamoney’s survey recommends “
defensive” companies including drugmakers and consumer staples producers.
“We’re turning cautious,” Hao Hong, the global equity strategist at CICC,
said in an April 13 interview in Shanghai. “Economic growth is going to
slow down in the coming months.”
CICC’s reduced outlook follows recommendations to boost Chinese stock
holdings in the past month from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase &
Co., Macquarie Group Ltd. and HSBC Holdings Plc, along with forecasts for
further gains of at least 14 percent by Credit Suisse Group AG and Deutsche
Bank AG. Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.2 trillion,
said this week it has a “large overweight” position in China.
While the country’s shares have rallied for three straight weeks on
speculation that the People’s Bank of China is near the end of its campaign
to tighten monetary policy, Hong says bullish investors may be disappointed.
Rate Bets
The Hang Seng gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, or H-shares,
dropped 23 percent in the six months after the central bank stopped raising
rates in 2007, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 14
percentage points. In 2004, the H-share gauge rose about 3 percent after
rate increases ended, trailing the MSCI index by 8 percentage points.
The Hang Seng index slipped 0.6 percent to 13,481.73 yesterday, paring this
year’s gain to 6.2 percent.
“Consensus sees the beginning of the end of the interest- rate hike cycle
and thus is getting bullish,” Hong said in a report sent to clients April
10. “The end of the cycle is not necessarily bullish judging from the
experiences of 2004 and 2007.”
Hong, a former analyst at Morgan Stanley and strategist at Citigroup Inc.,
predicted in January 2010 that stocks would retreat as the government reined
in property speculation. The Hang Seng China gauge dropped 10 percent in
the first half while the Shanghai Composite Index of so-called A-shares
traded on the mainland declined 27 percent.
In November 2010, Hong advised investors to refrain from buying Chinese
stocks after the biggest rally in 15 months. The Hang Seng China gauge
declined for four straight months.
Inflation Jump
China has increased its benchmark lending rate by 1 percentage point to 6.31
percent since October and lifted banks’ reserve requirements three times
this year to fight inflation and curb real-estate speculation.
Consumer prices jumped 4.9 percent in February from a year earlier, topping
the government’s full-year target of 4 percent. Inflation probably
accelerated to 5.2 percent in March, which would be the highest level since
July 2008, according to the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by
Bloomberg. The government is scheduled to release the inflation figure today.
Policy makers will lift the key lending rate to 6.56 percent by year-end,
according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists on
March 22. Besides monetary tools, the government has deployed subsidies,
state-food reserves and the threat of price controls to counter inflation,
which Premier Wen Jiabao has described as a potential threat to social
stability in the nation of 1.3 billion people.
‘Sustainable Rally’
Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, boosted its 12-month
forecast for the Hang Seng index a day after the central bank’s rate
increase on April 5. HSBC, Europe’s largest lender, increased its rating on
China to “overweight,” while Macquarie, Australia’s biggest investment
bank, said investors should lift holdings because the central bank is near
the end of raising borrowing costs.
Chinese stocks were upgraded to “overweight” from “market weight” the
previous week by analysts Helen Zhu and Timothy Moe at Goldman Sachs, the
fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets. They recommended banking and property
shares and kept their 12-month target of 16,500 for the Hang Seng index. Jun
Ma, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest
lender, said in a report distributed March 21 that Chinese shares may climb
about 25 percent.
Maria Gordon, an emerging-market stock fund manager in London at Pimco, said
in an April 13 interview with Bloomberg Television that financial and
property stocks are attractive. The $236 billion PIMCO Total Return Fund,
managed by Bill Gross, is the biggest mutual fund in the industry’s history.
Cut Cyclicals
Frank Li, the China strategist at JPMorgan, said stocks may “seesaw”
before a “sustainable rally” late in the third quarter, according to e-
mailed comments yesterday. Goldman Sachs’s Moe, HSBC’s Garry Evans and
Credit Suisse’s Peggy Chan didn’t respond to phone and e-mail requests for
comment. Michael Kurtz, a strategist at Macquarie, declined to comment.
“Growth will be stronger than market expectations,” Deutsche Bank’s Ma
said in a phone interview yesterday. “We’re expecting a small re-rating of
the market as the macro fears recede.”
The MSCI China Index of mostly Hong Kong-listed China stocks “is cheap,”
Ma said. The gauge trades for 12 times estimated earnings, compared with its
historical average of 14.8, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
Hang Seng gauge is valued at 11.1 times, compared with 11.6 for the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index.
Slower Growth
The government will report today that first-quarter gross domestic product
rose 9.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 25
economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with 11.9 percent in the
first three months of 2010.
CICC’s Hong advised investors to cut holdings of companies that rely on
accelerating economic growth to boost earnings, including raw-materials
producers. Profits at China-listed companies will rise about 19 percent in
2011, down from 40 percent last year, according to CICC estimates.
“It’s time to turn defensive,” Hong said.
avatar
l*n
2
咳咳。。那个。。问个比较隐私的问题吧,请版上的美女们不吝赐教。
因为在网上和别人那里道听途说的太多了,所以都不知道真假了,版上的美女应该都比
较懂的吧,就是穿着bra到底是有好处还是坏处。
有的舆论说的是,穿着不好,因为会勒着腋下淋巴的位置,会堵塞,淋巴容易不通,另
外乳腺管也容易堵塞,并且还会勒住肩膀,导致整个儿肩膀都是酸疼的。
其实我肩膀酸疼是真的,但是我不认为是bra勒的,因为长时间使用电脑,一个姿势时
间过长导致的。
这种舆论是说女性应该解放胸部,不要戴着这些东西,夏天戴着的时候真的热死了,感
觉比男人多穿了这么一件真的很郁闷。
另外还有的说穿着好,可以支撑着胸部,防止过早的胸部下垂,跟上面那种说法,又完
全是反着的,并且很多内衣的广告铺天盖地的,这些商家也会把他们的bra给说的功能
强大,又是调整胸型,又是什么的,其实这些我不是太相信。
要是出门肯定还是要穿的,不然穿衣服里面一颤一颤的也不好吧,需要固定,但是在家
里的话,是不是最好还是不要穿了呢?
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m*7
3
1D C?
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k*8
4
个人觉得该听pimco的
如果实体经济赚钱难了,煤老板阿中小企业主啊什么的就很有可能把钱往股市里堆来搏
傻了
嘿嘿
当然最终还是要看市场反应
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f*p
5
出门穿,对胸部最不好!
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b*6
6
看这个镜头比例,好像没有grip
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l*n
7
哈?你这是什么理论,可是大家出门都是必须穿的啊

【在 f****p 的大作中提到】
: 出门穿,对胸部最不好!
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m*7
8
这是新出的电影头,巨大无比

【在 b********6 的大作中提到】
: 看这个镜头比例,好像没有grip
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f*p
9
那为啥yugong就不穿?!

【在 l**n 的大作中提到】
: 哈?你这是什么理论,可是大家出门都是必须穿的啊
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d*0
10
电影的sensor比全幅大么?

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 这是新出的电影头,巨大无比
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m*7
11
sensor不知道,反正这颗头比85L粗两圈

【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 电影的sensor比全幅大么?
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x*c
12
1C

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: sensor不知道,反正这颗头比85L粗两圈
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m*7
13
我深刻的觉得佳能要废了,跳船吧

【在 x****c 的大作中提到】
: 1C
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r*v
15
问题是跳哪去啊。。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 我深刻的觉得佳能要废了,跳船吧
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x*c
16
1dx出来了,跳不出去了

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 我深刻的觉得佳能要废了,跳船吧
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m*7
17
按照三十年河东三十年河西该轮到尼康了。。。

【在 r***v 的大作中提到】
: 问题是跳哪去啊。。
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m*7
18
1dx你真的会买?

【在 x****c 的大作中提到】
: 1dx出来了,跳不出去了
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r*v
19
应该还有个对焦差点高感差点像素高点的机身吧。。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 按照三十年河东三十年河西该轮到尼康了。。。
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i*o
20
尼康没戏,不入流的

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 按照三十年河东三十年河西该轮到尼康了。。。
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x*c
21
4k的话,可以考虑。。。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 1dx你真的会买?
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c*y
22
他一堆LV,BMW的人,买个1dx,你为什么要吃惊

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 1dx你真的会买?
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x*c
23

没你奢

【在 c********y 的大作中提到】
: 他一堆LV,BMW的人,买个1dx,你为什么要吃惊
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m*7
25
藏着掖着最伤rp了,赶紧发包子

【在 x****c 的大作中提到】
: 擦
: 没你奢

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i*o
26
Apple说不定快有了,Lion已经加入了对超高清的支持。

【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: 4K的搞出来也没有放映设备啊,先搞2K吧。
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m*7
27
传说中的5d3?悬啊

【在 r***v 的大作中提到】
: 应该还有个对焦差点高感差点像素高点的机身吧。。
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r*v
28
肯定得有个新机器吧
如果N出新机器的话,C肯定有后招
如果C不出新机器,那说明N也没出,那想跳船也没地方跳啊~~总不能直接跳水里泡着。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 传说中的5d3?悬啊
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m*7
29
S会出。。。。只不过风景全幅可能明年还是保持今年的水平罢了。。。

【在 r***v 的大作中提到】
: 肯定得有个新机器吧
: 如果N出新机器的话,C肯定有后招
: 如果C不出新机器,那说明N也没出,那想跳船也没地方跳啊~~总不能直接跳水里泡着。

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x5
30
同问。。。

【在 r***v 的大作中提到】
: 问题是跳哪去啊。。
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m*7
31
你就继续铁丝吧

【在 x5 的大作中提到】
: 同问。。。
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x5
32
马克你可不能这样啊,我刚跳过来,你又让我跳回去。。。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 你就继续铁丝吧
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c*y
33
跳k5吧

【在 x5 的大作中提到】
: 马克你可不能这样啊,我刚跳过来,你又让我跳回去。。。
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m*7
34
不然你去S那兜一圈?自动对焦af头哦

【在 x5 的大作中提到】
: 马克你可不能这样啊,我刚跳过来,你又让我跳回去。。。
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x5
35
残幅?

【在 c********y 的大作中提到】
: 跳k5吧
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c*y
36
说的自动对焦很稀罕似的,还中文英文各来一遍。。。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: 不然你去S那兜一圈?自动对焦af头哦
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r*v
37
那还不如指望N呢。。。

【在 m****7 的大作中提到】
: S会出。。。。只不过风景全幅可能明年还是保持今年的水平罢了。。。
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x5
38
hahahahahaha哈哈哈哈哈哈。。。。

【在 c********y 的大作中提到】
: 说的自动对焦很稀罕似的,还中文英文各来一遍。。。
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m*7
39
短路了,想说自动对焦蔡司头的。。。。

【在 c********y 的大作中提到】
: 说的自动对焦很稀罕似的,还中文英文各来一遍。。。
avatar
x*c
40
德叔说了,一日铁丝

【在 x5 的大作中提到】
: 马克你可不能这样啊,我刚跳过来,你又让我跳回去。。。
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a*l
41
干死奸商,为我祭旗。
avatar
m*7
42
你要去哪玩啊

【在 a********l 的大作中提到】
: 干死奸商,为我祭旗。
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