d*8
2 楼
http://seekingalpha.com/article/340851-method-to-the-zynga-madn
In the last 10 days, Zynga (ZNGA) managed to go from $8.53 to $13.34, for a
full 56% return. Given how overvalued the stock seemed even before rallying,
it's hard to see why it would go up so much.
But there's a method to the madness.
You can actually rationalize the climb. It has to do with Facebook's IPO.
Facebook will certainly get a $100 billion valuation right out of the gate,
and will then add several tens of billions to that when it trades.
Now, through Facebook's S-1, we got to know that it:
Had revenues of $3.71 billion in 2011;
12% of those revenues came from Zynga;
17.6% of Facebook's revenues are from virtual goods and payments and that is
the fastest growing segment.
We also knew that Zynga had $1 billion in TTM revenues and is growing about
as fast as Facebook itself, which is expected to continue.
In short
The method to the madness is that if Facebook is going to be worth north of
$100 billion, and Zynga should be around one-fourth Facebook's size, and
present in the fastest growing of Facebook's segments, then Zynga can be
worth as much as one-fourth of Facebook, which would put it at least $35 per
share, given 700 million outstanding shares.
What do I think about this?
A huge bubble is forming all around Facebook. Investors are once again
throwing caution to the wind and buying anything that smells of tech, be it
Amazon.com (AMZN) after some more horrid earnings, Zynga on the relative
scale, Netsuite (N) on very dubious earnings or even Groupon (GRPN), which
has already shown to have a much lower margin business than Facebook due to
the hordes of salesmen it requires.
In the last 10 days, Zynga (ZNGA) managed to go from $8.53 to $13.34, for a
full 56% return. Given how overvalued the stock seemed even before rallying,
it's hard to see why it would go up so much.
But there's a method to the madness.
You can actually rationalize the climb. It has to do with Facebook's IPO.
Facebook will certainly get a $100 billion valuation right out of the gate,
and will then add several tens of billions to that when it trades.
Now, through Facebook's S-1, we got to know that it:
Had revenues of $3.71 billion in 2011;
12% of those revenues came from Zynga;
17.6% of Facebook's revenues are from virtual goods and payments and that is
the fastest growing segment.
We also knew that Zynga had $1 billion in TTM revenues and is growing about
as fast as Facebook itself, which is expected to continue.
In short
The method to the madness is that if Facebook is going to be worth north of
$100 billion, and Zynga should be around one-fourth Facebook's size, and
present in the fastest growing of Facebook's segments, then Zynga can be
worth as much as one-fourth of Facebook, which would put it at least $35 per
share, given 700 million outstanding shares.
What do I think about this?
A huge bubble is forming all around Facebook. Investors are once again
throwing caution to the wind and buying anything that smells of tech, be it
Amazon.com (AMZN) after some more horrid earnings, Zynga on the relative
scale, Netsuite (N) on very dubious earnings or even Groupon (GRPN), which
has already shown to have a much lower margin business than Facebook due to
the hordes of salesmen it requires.
p*s
3 楼
嗯
◆ Sent from OneTap MITBBS Reader for Windows Phone
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
◆ Sent from OneTap MITBBS Reader for Windows Phone
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
y*4
4 楼
read fine print b4 u go
http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/03/pf/taxes/sales-tax-holiday/inde
http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/03/pf/taxes/sales-tax-holiday/inde
g*n
5 楼
我觉得一两年内应该能到30，如果online gambling合法化，znga能过40，说不定50
g*n
6 楼
paddy神医还买啥乐
【在 p********s 的大作中提到】
: 嗯
: ◆ Sent from OneTap MITBBS Reader for Windows Phone
: [发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
【在 p********s 的大作中提到】
: 嗯
: ◆ Sent from OneTap MITBBS Reader for Windows Phone
: [发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
p*e
8 楼
http://www.buy.com/pr/product.aspx?sku=225303316
【在 g*****n 的大作中提到】
: paddy神医还买啥乐
【在 g*****n 的大作中提到】
: paddy神医还买啥乐
Y*i
9 楼
VA的悲剧了，
d*g
10 楼
这个没有10x点啊
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: http://www.buy.com/pr/product.aspx?sku=225303316
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: http://www.buy.com/pr/product.aspx?sku=225303316
r*g
11 楼
【在 G*D 的大作中提到】
: http://www.bestbuy.com/site/HP+-+15.6%26%2334%3B+Pavilion+Lapto
g*n
12 楼
难道你儿子那个都是你的手艺？
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: http://www.buy.com/pr/product.aspx?sku=225303316
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: http://www.buy.com/pr/product.aspx?sku=225303316
c*8
13 楼
加州为啥没有这个活动啊？
p*e
14 楼
just want to extend the deadline of my points hehe
【在 d**********g 的大作中提到】
: 这个没有10x点啊
【在 d**********g 的大作中提到】
: 这个没有10x点啊
p*e
15 楼
u got it
【在 g*****n 的大作中提到】
: 难道你儿子那个都是你的手艺？
【在 g*****n 的大作中提到】
: 难道你儿子那个都是你的手艺？
g*n
16 楼
不错啊， 脑袋圆溜溜啊
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: u got it
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: u got it
h*s
17 楼
怎么改了？
你不是买了么
买了就买了呗
还把‘买’给删了
。。。。
【在 p********s 的大作中提到】
: 嗯
: ◆ Sent from OneTap MITBBS Reader for Windows Phone
: [发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
你不是买了么
买了就买了呗
还把‘买’给删了
。。。。
【在 p********s 的大作中提到】
: 嗯
: ◆ Sent from OneTap MITBBS Reader for Windows Phone
: [发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com]
p*e
18 楼
LD LD LD
【在 h*****s 的大作中提到】
: 怎么改了？
: 你不是买了么
: 买了就买了呗
: 还把‘买’给删了
: 。。。。
【在 h*****s 的大作中提到】
: 怎么改了？
: 你不是买了么
: 买了就买了呗
: 还把‘买’给删了
: 。。。。
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