哥来当版主， 如何？# Piebridge - 鹊桥
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http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/recession-is-a-done-
Quotes:
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but
on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading
Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and
Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading
Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-
looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of
full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”
Last year, amid the double-dip hysteria, we definitively ruled out an
imminent recession based on leading indexes that began to turn up before QE2
was announced. Today, the key is that cyclical weakness is spreading widely
from economic indicator to indicator in a telltale recessionary fashion.
Quotes:
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but
on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading
Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and
Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading
Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-
looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of
full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”
Last year, amid the double-dip hysteria, we definitively ruled out an
imminent recession based on leading indexes that began to turn up before QE2
was announced. Today, the key is that cyclical weakness is spreading widely
from economic indicator to indicator in a telltale recessionary fashion.
