Jim Chanos 在 Charlie Rose 上谈中国的房地产泡沫 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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Jim Chanos 在 Charlie Rose 上谈中国的房地产泡沫

Jim Chanos 在 Charlie Rose 上谈中国的房地产泡沫# Stock

a*p2010-04-22 07:04

1 楼

public boolean intersect(Line line2) {
return Math.abs(slope - line2.slope) > epsilon ||
Math.abs(yintercept - line2.yintercept) < epsilon;
}
第一个判断slope的也应该是""吧？

b*y2010-04-22 07:04

2 楼

他说中国50-60%的GDP是基于房地产和建筑。
说中国政府最有效的打压价格的武器还是房地产税。
认为房地产泡沫破裂后造成的大量坏帐需要政府bail out，这样人民币可能不但不升值
反而会贬值。
The average residential house in Beijing is now at $3800 sq. meters a
60% year on year increase. Affordability is stretched to the breaking
point with the average mortgage requiring 65-70% of monthly household
income. And let’s not even get started on the commercial real estate
market which boasts completely empty office building after empty office
building. The speculative frenzy is so out of cont

c*m2010-04-22 07:04

3 楼

Good to see this article!
"说中国政府最有效的打压价格的武器还是房地产税。"
Does it mean like I will pay 30% of the price of my house if I sell it? or
30% of the profit?
this is still useless.
For regular people like you and me, The most important data to determine the
price is if this house located on the good school district.
For the china government, the most effective method is the increase the land
supply.

b*y2010-04-22 07:04

4 楼

你说的是盈利税，房地产税和美国的property tax一样的，每年按房价估值交个1%-2%

or
the
land

【在 c***m 的大作中提到】

: Good to see this article!
: "说中国政府最有效的打压价格的武器还是房地产税。"
: Does it mean like I will pay 30% of the price of my house if I sell it? or
: 30% of the profit?
: this is still useless.
: For regular people like you and me, The most important data to determine the
: price is if this house located on the good school district.
: For the china government, the most effective method is the increase the land
: supply.

a*82010-04-22 07:04

5 楼

人民币对外先升值，后贬值。对内一直贬值。

c*m2010-04-22 07:04

6 楼

I see. Chinese in mainland don't pay property tax?
I wish they will drop 30% so I can get in in next 5 years. But it is hard.
For example, look at glen view in chicago. is its price drop 30% in 2008-
2009? No. South loop didn't drop much, instead, some are up. Chicago is in
much worse shape than other major city of US. Even that, the high profile
neighborhood still holds its price during one of the severe crisis in US
history.
implementing property tax will cool somehow of RE, but will not affe

【在 b********y 的大作中提到】

: 你说的是盈利税，房地产税和美国的property tax一样的，每年按房价估值交个1%-2%
:
: or
: the
: land

b*y2010-04-22 07:04

7 楼

芝加哥本来就涨得不多

hard.
2008-
in
profile
fundamental.

【在 c***m 的大作中提到】

: I see. Chinese in mainland don't pay property tax?
: I wish they will drop 30% so I can get in in next 5 years. But it is hard.
: For example, look at glen view in chicago. is its price drop 30% in 2008-
: 2009? No. South loop didn't drop much, instead, some are up. Chicago is in
: much worse shape than other major city of US. Even that, the high profile
: neighborhood still holds its price during one of the severe crisis in US
: history.
: implementing property tax will cool somehow of RE, but will not affe

c*m2010-04-22 07:04

8 楼

china RE began on 1990, the biggest and first step appeared on 1998. based
on us/hk/japan history, china RE is still in early stage.
anyway, chino sees a bubble. But he didn't see the potential in china RE.
That is the key.

【在 b********y 的大作中提到】

: 芝加哥本来就涨得不多
:
: hard.
: 2008-
: in
: profile
: fundamental.