j*h
2 楼
我来毛估估
现在用户15M
月金$8.99.
一年的revenue: 15M*9*12=$1.62 B
Revenue (ttm): $1.88B (yahoo finance)
相比, 较合理
The number of households in the United States is
projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching
103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115
million by 2010.
http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1129.pdf
假设全垄断,经营模式没有发展, 115M,一半都subscribe
115M/2*9*12=$6.21 B
Profit Margin (ttm): 7.27% (yahoo finance)
假定不变
NI= $6.21B *7.27%= $451M
shares =52.36M
EPS= $8.61
在这种情况下,PE 应该回到normal 状态了
假定PE=20 (比normal 还要高一点点)
P=$172
现在价格$156.16 (10/05/2010)
当然这是假定subscription fee 不变的情况
现在用户15M
月金$8.99.
一年的revenue: 15M*9*12=$1.62 B
Revenue (ttm): $1.88B (yahoo finance)
相比, 较合理
The number of households in the United States is
projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching
103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115
million by 2010.
http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1129.pdf
假设全垄断,经营模式没有发展, 115M,一半都subscribe
115M/2*9*12=$6.21 B
Profit Margin (ttm): 7.27% (yahoo finance)
假定不变
NI= $6.21B *7.27%= $451M
shares =52.36M
EPS= $8.61
在这种情况下,PE 应该回到normal 状态了
假定PE=20 (比normal 还要高一点点)
P=$172
现在价格$156.16 (10/05/2010)
当然这是假定subscription fee 不变的情况
j*h
3 楼
disclaimer: 没有考虑地球家庭增长
b*e
4 楼
还买不?
s*n
5 楼
没有增长要用p/e =10来算了.
而且这种东西没有技术壁垒的。没有竞争不可能的。
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】
: 我来毛估估
: 现在用户15M
: 月金$8.99.
: 一年的revenue: 15M*9*12=$1.62 B
: Revenue (ttm): $1.88B (yahoo finance)
: 相比, 较合理
: The number of households in the United States is
: projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching
: 103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115
: million by 2010.
而且这种东西没有技术壁垒的。没有竞争不可能的。
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】
: 我来毛估估
: 现在用户15M
: 月金$8.99.
: 一年的revenue: 15M*9*12=$1.62 B
: Revenue (ttm): $1.88B (yahoo finance)
: 相比, 较合理
: The number of households in the United States is
: projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching
: 103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115
: million by 2010.
j*h
6 楼
MSFT 是全球性的, 而且不是按家庭数来计算的
MSFT 股价$0.6 (1989) 到$58 (2000)
从2000到2010 $58-> $24.35
MSFT 股价$0.6 (1989) 到$58 (2000)
从2000到2010 $58-> $24.35
j*h
8 楼
好, 美国人民都用netflix乐
假设全垄断,经营模式没有发展, 115M,全都subscribe
115M2*9*12=$12.42 B
Profit Margin (ttm): 7.27% (yahoo finance)
假定不变
NI= $12.42B *7.27%= $902M
shares =52.36M (不稀释)
EPS= $17.22
在这种情况下,假定PE=15
MSFT 现在PE12 还有红利, MSFT 三年卖一次,NFLX 天天卖
P=$207
现在价格$156.16 (10/05/2010)
当然这是假定subscription fee 不变的情况
NFLX的一辈子
假设全垄断,经营模式没有发展, 115M,全都subscribe
115M2*9*12=$12.42 B
Profit Margin (ttm): 7.27% (yahoo finance)
假定不变
NI= $12.42B *7.27%= $902M
shares =52.36M (不稀释)
EPS= $17.22
在这种情况下,假定PE=15
MSFT 现在PE12 还有红利, MSFT 三年卖一次,NFLX 天天卖
P=$207
现在价格$156.16 (10/05/2010)
当然这是假定subscription fee 不变的情况
NFLX的一辈子
相关阅读