a*n
2 楼
WA 附近的。。。。。seattle见面付cash, 其它地方+my label
r*m
3 楼
SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
PROFITS
今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
line breakout, actually twice,因此可信度应该比只破了一根3 pointed validated
trend line要高。这个信号,老读者都知道,非常准确,所以不可轻视,特别是如果
明天trend line held的话。
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, SPX new high但是NYMO却是clear in red,
关于这个,我有个叫NYMO Sell的setup,用的是同样的原理,见下图右上角,这个
setup的winning rate是65% (since 2002),但是gain loss ratio很惊人,可以高达5
,换句话说,就是经常抓住exactly top。6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch,因
为是人工看图,所以准确率应该高于65%,见下面的图里红色虚线比绿色虚线多多少就
明白了(8/11 = 73%)。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26
OR 11/04
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either
around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details.
Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term
bearish view:
1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, statistically VIX at 1 month low
going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good
for the broad market.
7. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, IBM dropped after ER may mean SPX
red in 5 weeks.
8. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, AAPL MACD is now too stretched
which could mean a top for QQQQ.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are
way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity
related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.
PROFITS
今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
line breakout, actually twice,因此可信度应该比只破了一根3 pointed validated
trend line要高。这个信号,老读者都知道,非常准确,所以不可轻视,特别是如果
明天trend line held的话。
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, SPX new high但是NYMO却是clear in red,
关于这个,我有个叫NYMO Sell的setup,用的是同样的原理,见下图右上角,这个
setup的winning rate是65% (since 2002),但是gain loss ratio很惊人,可以高达5
,换句话说,就是经常抓住exactly top。6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch,因
为是人工看图,所以准确率应该高于65%,见下面的图里红色虚线比绿色虚线多多少就
明白了(8/11 = 73%)。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26
OR 11/04
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either
around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details.
Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term
bearish view:
1. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds
record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average)
is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps
increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season
could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, statistically VIX at 1 month low
going into October was not a good sign.
6. As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good
for the broad market.
7. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, IBM dropped after ER may mean SPX
red in 5 weeks.
8. As mentioned in 10/19 Market Recap, AAPL MACD is now too stretched
which could mean a top for QQQQ.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
1. The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are
way too high.
2. With possible Euro pullback, watch potential weakness on commodity
related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.
b*r
5 楼
lol。。。帮主我已经转达过这个精神了。
h*e
7 楼
老蛇的东西不太work。。。。
M*M
9 楼
这次rim说话终于靠点儿谱
rim的熊毛还剩几根?
烧了这么久,也差不多了吧?
validated
5
either
season
good
SPX
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
: PROFITS
: 今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
: possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
: ,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
: Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
: 能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
: stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
: 要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
rim的熊毛还剩几根?
烧了这么久,也差不多了吧?
validated
5
either
season
good
SPX
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
: PROFITS
: 今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
: possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
: ,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
: Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
: 能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
: stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
: 要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
N*n
11 楼
Fed is painting a golden cross of 5ODMA over 200DMA on S&P with POMOs. It
is not done yet. So be patient.
is not done yet. So be patient.
P*B
13 楼
老5,我再信你这次
L*n
16 楼
喊了这么久,总有一天会喊对的。
g*7
17 楼
呵呵,不过这次我被吓倒了。开始偏猪,减仓,为过冬做准备。
但是我有个问题,一般都是大家都觉得牛市的时候大盘才开始下跌的。大盘还没有下跌
,咱们这个版面目前转熊,是不是有点怪?莫非还有一个最后的冲刺?11400?
但是我有个问题,一般都是大家都觉得牛市的时候大盘才开始下跌的。大盘还没有下跌
,咱们这个版面目前转熊,是不是有点怪?莫非还有一个最后的冲刺?11400?
T*J
19 楼
是时候了!!
A*L
20 楼
Enn....
d*1
21 楼
帮主就是放哨的雁,总在提醒大伙儿别被花街的狐狸吃了。
g8
22 楼
就是一loser
x*x
24 楼
天天喊顶天天顶
g*u
26 楼
大帅说过:胡同老蛇,大千捣蛋,双剑合璧,超级反指。
这是捣蛋发表于同一日(10/21)的文章
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2207939.html
对了,忘了说了:如果捣蛋贴被置顶,老蛇贴被转载,那可靠性就接近 90% 了。
因为又多了个大千版主和股版某个信徒的二次确认。
其实有时候炒股就这么简单。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
: PROFITS
: 今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
: possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
: ,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
: Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
: 能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
: stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
: 要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
这是捣蛋发表于同一日(10/21)的文章
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2207939.html
对了,忘了说了:如果捣蛋贴被置顶,老蛇贴被转载,那可靠性就接近 90% 了。
因为又多了个大千版主和股版某个信徒的二次确认。
其实有时候炒股就这么简单。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
: PROFITS
: 今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
: possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
: ,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
: Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
: 能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
: stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
: 要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
h*e
27 楼
这话没错。。炒股票只能信自己。。。
p*d
28 楼
你混了这么多年了,赚了多少?
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: 大帅说过:胡同老蛇,大千捣蛋,双剑合璧,超级反指。
: 这是捣蛋发表于同一日(10/21)的文章
: http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2207939.html
: 对了,忘了说了:如果捣蛋贴被置顶,老蛇贴被转载,那可靠性就接近 90% 了。
: 因为又多了个大千版主和股版某个信徒的二次确认。
: 其实有时候炒股就这么简单。
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: 大帅说过:胡同老蛇,大千捣蛋,双剑合璧,超级反指。
: 这是捣蛋发表于同一日(10/21)的文章
: http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2207939.html
: 对了,忘了说了:如果捣蛋贴被置顶,老蛇贴被转载,那可靠性就接近 90% 了。
: 因为又多了个大千版主和股版某个信徒的二次确认。
: 其实有时候炒股就这么简单。
q*u
29 楼
老蛇被挞伐了,马上就会又有人攻击TA分析,其实TA分析是否见顶俺的
规矩就是一定要confirm的过程,在没有被confirm之前,断定
已经见顶,本身就是违反TA分析的。
规矩就是一定要confirm的过程,在没有被confirm之前,断定
已经见顶,本身就是违反TA分析的。
g*u
31 楼
都瞎吵啥!
老蛇也没说让做空啊!
人不是long/short兼备嘛。
老蛇也没说让做空啊!
人不是long/short兼备嘛。
g8
32 楼
见顶了?
b*r
33 楼
昨天老蛇的新看法是今天大盘如果确认向上突破,SPX要
去3000,他要提前退休。
老蛇比帮主滑头多了。
去3000,他要提前退休。
老蛇比帮主滑头多了。
h*e
35 楼
老蛇牛人的。。他这种不是死扛派,只用TA说话。风向一变他就换仓位
w*k
37 楼
rim最可惜的就是明明可以当师傅,偏要去当徒弟。
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
: PROFITS
: 今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
: possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
: ,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
: Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
: 能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
: stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
: 要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: SHORT-TERM: TWO RELIABLE TOP SIGNALS TRIGGERED, BULLS BETTER TAKE SOME
: PROFITS
: 今天有两个top signals触发了,考虑到在10/15 Market Recap里提到的the first
: possible pivot date around 10/21 to 10/22,因此真有可能今天就是top了。我知道
: ,这么说可能大部分人都不会相信,我也不敢相信,不过,根据6.5.2c Week
: Seasonality Watch,下周很多半是red week,所以牛牛在这里take some profits,可
: 能不会有大错吧,特别是follow SPY ST Model的,因为这个model is designed to
: stay in a trend as long as possible,因此是没有take partial profit的信号的,
: 要自己找机会,我觉得现在应该是时候了。
: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend
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