感觉所有问题的关键在于趋势预测和估计 不管是TA 还是 FA TA 基于 图形或统计, 预测pattern的可重复性 FA 基于各种数据, 预测经济状况和公司经营情况 各位大牛都有什么高明的预测手段?
L*n
2 楼
野鸡FA worse than no FA at all, it give u a bias.
x*x
3 楼
TA跟FA都过时了,现在流行SA
f*4
4 楼
Cannot agree more. I reckon FA is much harder than TA, as it needs quite a lot of background knowledge from macroeconomics to microeconomics and corporate finance, etc. All the bull shares operated by MM are already FAed by MM and most of them have sound fundamentals, so TA actually leverage MM's FA.
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】 : 野鸡FA worse than no FA at all, it give u a bias.
u*e
5 楼
Do you mean "Sentiment Analysis" on "SA"?
【在 x*********x 的大作中提到】 : TA跟FA都过时了,现在流行SA
u*e
6 楼
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I was having the same ideas as you do before. But as you know, sometimes the TA itself will drive you crazy since it could lead to contradictory conclusions. For example, in many times, the momentum analysis will have different conclusion with the oscillator analysis. And for pattern recognition, the same shape could lead to different opinions. Come to an end, I now believe the TA needs to be guided by FA. FA is still essential if you are about to hold the stock long.
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【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】 : Cannot agree more. : I reckon FA is much harder than TA, as it needs quite a lot of background : knowledge from macroeconomics to microeconomics and corporate finance, etc. : All the bull shares operated by MM are already FAed by MM and most of them : have sound fundamentals, so TA actually leverage MM's FA.
f*4
7 楼
TA should be simple instead of complicated. If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it. Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up or down at a equal chance. We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every work day.
could still
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】 : Thanks for sharing your thoughts. : I was having the same ideas as you do before. : But as you know, sometimes the TA itself will drive you crazy since it could : lead to contradictory conclusions. For example, in many times, the : momentum analysis will have different conclusion with the oscillator : analysis. And for pattern recognition, the same shape could lead to : different opinions. : Come to an end, I now believe the TA needs to be guided by FA. FA is still : essential if you are about to hold the stock long. :
h*y
8 楼
this is a good point!
up every
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】 : TA should be simple instead of complicated. : If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it. : Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to : clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up : or down at a equal chance. : We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every : work day. : : could : still
非常同意 阿飞 的观点。 Simple is beautiful. So we always need to make a decisioin to favor one part to avoid conflicts. And as you said, if we can not make a decision to favor one part, just quit this one. So the key questions is still the "decision". When the stock ( or the market ) is down, do we favor the "oversold" condition to buy or to favor the momentum to sell? Probably it will depends on what price it is at the moment or depends on what the momentum it is on a longer term. Then we will still need a similar on the longer term. Maybe the simple truth is to make less decisions and make simple ones.
up every
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】 : TA should be simple instead of complicated. : If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it. : Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to : clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up : or down at a equal chance. : We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every : work day. : : could : still
【在 f*******4 的大作中提到】 : TA should be simple instead of complicated. : If your TA is so complicated, then you might need to improve it. : Sometime TA does lead to conflict conclusions, that's the time we need to : clear our positions and take a break, since TA tells us the market can go up : or down at a equal chance. : We're not traders working for investment banks and don't have to trade every : work day. : : could : still