V是我最近赌错的一个ER，昨天ER，到今天跌了3刀。我的bet是conservative bullish
。基本上歇菜。
在水下被逼着听了cc，读了读新闻。在这里记录些笔记。
基本面上V暂时还是不错的。现在影响股价的是以下几个问题
1. 预期有调升，但revenue方面比较谨慎。《---- 应该被cashflow 中和
2. Durbin 法规方面还没有结果 《--- 这个比较重要，好像visa 比master 卡这方面
受到的影响大，其实影响有限，但投资人在出结果前不放心。昨天cc里谈到的只是说政
府方面相信他们的数字。。
以上两点在下面转帖的barron的文章中都有提到
3 是竞争力的问题，ebay的paypal明显在mobile上占了先机。同时mastercard也总是
outperform visa。虽然增长率不错， wallstreet 希望看到更好听的股市 （mobile
方面cc里问到好几遍）
我的感觉这次er很solid，但整个business model和将来的竞争力被质疑。增长点可能
只是国际增长率和经济复苏的希望方面的增长。
牛的方面是如果短期Durbin解决，可能股票会有个缓解。
但中长期暂时已经没有好的story，在各个银行又一次吃紧的情况下，他们收取的费用
模式可能会被迫受到影响。如果dubin造成的反弹可能是多仓套利的一个好机会。
作为增长股票。后面不确定性很多。感觉持有相关的仓位很是头疼。
FROM BARRON：
Visa Drops: FBR Sees Durbin Risk Manageable
By Tiernan Ray
Shares of Visa (V) are down $2.80, or 3.5%, at $77.12, after the company
yesterday afternoon forecast 2011 revenue growth short of the consensus
estimate on the Street.
The announcement of an new $1 billion stock repurchase plan last night, and
a forecast for higher cash flow, seem not to provide any lift to the shares
today.
Nevertheless, the response on the Street seems to be that the company is
performing as expected as long as volume of transactions continues to rise,
as it did in Q4, up 16%, year over year. The Q4 beat of 1 penny was not as
much as some would like, and the outlook was not as strong as some would
like, but bulls seem inclined to look past those things.
In a note to clients today, FBR Capital analyst Scott Valentin reiterated an
Outperform rating on the stock, and a price target of $96. Visa’s forecast
of 11% to 15% revenue growth in 2011 was actually slightly better than he’
d been modeling.
However, Valentin observes that the company’s comments on the call
regarding the so-called Durbin amendment, may have spooked investors. The
amendment, championed in this summer’s financial reform regulations by
Senator Richard Durbin (Dem., Illinois), could eliminate the Visa’s ability
to raise fees on debit cards. But the government hasn’t actually said how
the Durbin amendment will translate into rules for Visa and MasterCard (MA),
leaving a great deal of uncertainty in the stocks.
Valentin does a run-through of some What if? scenarios to see what the
potential cost is to Visa’s earnings in 2012 in different forms of the
Durbin rules. He comes up with a worst-case scenario of 73 cents coming off
of his existing estimate of $5.70 per share.
“We believe the impact from Durbin to be meanageable,” concludes Valentin.
I’d note that Oppenheimer & Co.’s Glenn Greene last Friday penned a
similarly encouraging note.
