今天金银跌的主要原因# Stock
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Is Soros Right to Get Out of Gold?
Major players, including George Soros, are reportedly pulling back from gold
and silver has recorded yet another collapse.
The Federal Reserve remains dovish, the US macroeconomic picture looks shaky
, but gold has still fallen back, so should investors stick with precious
metals?
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday morning that George Soros'
eponymous fund has been easing itself out of the yellow metal and is also
getting out of silver (Exchange: XAG=).
Gold (Exchange: XAU=) has risen more than 10 percent since January 2011 and
now sits at over $1,500. It hit record highs of more than $1,575 on Monday
but was trimmed back Tuesday and Wednesday to just under $1,538.
Monday's rally was probably an overshoot, Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall
told CNBC.com.
"We're really back to levels of gold from last week before it got a bit
frothy," he said.
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that inflation was under control,
reducing upwards pressure on gold. Investors typically buy into the metal as
a hedge against inflation.
The dollar is also under pressure on weak growth in US private payrolls and
a corresponding concern over the April jobs report, due to be released on
Friday.
The currency is at two and a half year lows. The Mexican government bought $
4 billion worth of bullion between January and March as it looks to reduce
its dollar reserves.
The euro (Exchange: EUR=X) remains at unprecedented highs against the dollar
. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a
percentage point to 1.25 percent last month and may do so again, according
to analysts.
Despite the fundamentals, gold could continue to be choppy for the next
couple of weeks, Kendall added.
VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov told CNBC.com that the weakness in
the dollar and the continuation of a dovish stance at the Fed should mean
that gold's retreat should be contained.
While there has been some easing in the geopolitical situation, "the macro
data has been very weak," he said. "I think all of this supports the longer
term uptrend in gold."
What About Silver?
Silver has been volatile over the past two weeks, flirting with $50 an ounce
before collapsing and rebounding. The metal lost 20 percent in three days
after booking a record high on Thursday as investors took profits.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange also hiked silver futures margins twice more
as it attempts to control volatility in the metal, pricing some smaller
traders out of the market. Since April 25 the exchange's margin requirements
have increased from $8,700 per contract to $14,000, rising to $16,000 on
Monday May 9.
"The margin issue has played a key role in this, it's really driven a lot of
the shorter-term long positions out of silver, which compared to gold were
a bit overboard anyway," Kendall said.
Silver is also used as an inflation hedge, but its rise has been underpinned
by industrial demand and by investors looking to benefit from its strong
performance. With the growth in exchange-traded funds and speculative
interest in the metal, investment as a component of silver purchasing grew
from 5 to 17 percent from 2008 to 2010, according to research from RBC
Capital Markets.
"Silver was an accident waiting to happen," VTB's Kryuchenkov said. The
correction was logical, given the extent of the overshoot on the metal's
pricing. Silver's fall below $40 wiped out a month of solid gains."
Analysts told CNBC that there is now strong support at around $36.
Earlier on Thursday, leading commodity investor Jim Rogers told CNBC that
silver's rise was unsustainable and that a pull-back could be good for the
market.
Credit Suisse's Kendall agreed, saying that the correction is likely to
continue. "I wouldn't be calling the bottom just yet," he said.
Major players, including George Soros, are reportedly pulling back from gold
and silver has recorded yet another collapse.
The Federal Reserve remains dovish, the US macroeconomic picture looks shaky
, but gold has still fallen back, so should investors stick with precious
metals?
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday morning that George Soros'
eponymous fund has been easing itself out of the yellow metal and is also
getting out of silver (Exchange: XAG=).
Gold (Exchange: XAU=) has risen more than 10 percent since January 2011 and
now sits at over $1,500. It hit record highs of more than $1,575 on Monday
but was trimmed back Tuesday and Wednesday to just under $1,538.
Monday's rally was probably an overshoot, Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall
told CNBC.com.
"We're really back to levels of gold from last week before it got a bit
frothy," he said.
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that inflation was under control,
reducing upwards pressure on gold. Investors typically buy into the metal as
a hedge against inflation.
The dollar is also under pressure on weak growth in US private payrolls and
a corresponding concern over the April jobs report, due to be released on
Friday.
The currency is at two and a half year lows. The Mexican government bought $
4 billion worth of bullion between January and March as it looks to reduce
its dollar reserves.
The euro (Exchange: EUR=X) remains at unprecedented highs against the dollar
. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a
percentage point to 1.25 percent last month and may do so again, according
to analysts.
Despite the fundamentals, gold could continue to be choppy for the next
couple of weeks, Kendall added.
VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov told CNBC.com that the weakness in
the dollar and the continuation of a dovish stance at the Fed should mean
that gold's retreat should be contained.
While there has been some easing in the geopolitical situation, "the macro
data has been very weak," he said. "I think all of this supports the longer
term uptrend in gold."
What About Silver?
Silver has been volatile over the past two weeks, flirting with $50 an ounce
before collapsing and rebounding. The metal lost 20 percent in three days
after booking a record high on Thursday as investors took profits.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange also hiked silver futures margins twice more
as it attempts to control volatility in the metal, pricing some smaller
traders out of the market. Since April 25 the exchange's margin requirements
have increased from $8,700 per contract to $14,000, rising to $16,000 on
Monday May 9.
"The margin issue has played a key role in this, it's really driven a lot of
the shorter-term long positions out of silver, which compared to gold were
a bit overboard anyway," Kendall said.
Silver is also used as an inflation hedge, but its rise has been underpinned
by industrial demand and by investors looking to benefit from its strong
performance. With the growth in exchange-traded funds and speculative
interest in the metal, investment as a component of silver purchasing grew
from 5 to 17 percent from 2008 to 2010, according to research from RBC
Capital Markets.
"Silver was an accident waiting to happen," VTB's Kryuchenkov said. The
correction was logical, given the extent of the overshoot on the metal's
pricing. Silver's fall below $40 wiped out a month of solid gains."
Analysts told CNBC that there is now strong support at around $36.
Earlier on Thursday, leading commodity investor Jim Rogers told CNBC that
silver's rise was unsustainable and that a pull-back could be good for the
market.
Credit Suisse's Kendall agreed, saying that the correction is likely to
continue. "I wouldn't be calling the bottom just yet," he said.