中国经济短期很差，长期很好。# Stock
w*k
1 楼
而不是反过来，OK?
这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
H*7
2 楼
support
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
b*2
3 楼
行为艺术？
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
m*n
4 楼
每当看到有人说一句中文，后边加一句OK?, 就想笑
很有喜感
很有喜感
b*t
5 楼
那中国老大能不能先帮我拉上来换口气，拜托，快闷死了
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
t*y
6 楼
你的爱国心很好，但是属于盲目乐观。如果意识不到危机，你就解决不了危机。
不看清自己的弱点，或者死活不改，盲目自大，结局就和大清一样。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
不看清自己的弱点，或者死活不改，盲目自大，结局就和大清一样。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
w*k
7 楼
要的就是这个效果撒。
【在 m*********n 的大作中提到】
: 每当看到有人说一句中文，后边加一句OK?, 就想笑
: 很有喜感
【在 m*********n 的大作中提到】
: 每当看到有人说一句中文，后边加一句OK?, 就想笑
: 很有喜感
w*k
8 楼
切，高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光从来就没有交集的。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 你的爱国心很好，但是属于盲目乐观。如果意识不到危机，你就解决不了危机。
: 不看清自己的弱点，或者死活不改，盲目自大，结局就和大清一样。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 你的爱国心很好，但是属于盲目乐观。如果意识不到危机，你就解决不了危机。
: 不看清自己的弱点，或者死活不改，盲目自大，结局就和大清一样。
m*n
9 楼
还有这个撒字， 不知是什么地方方言，看着就难受
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 要的就是这个效果撒。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 要的就是这个效果撒。
t*y
10 楼
哈哈
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 切，高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光从来就没有交集的。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 切，高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光从来就没有交集的。
w*k
11 楼
中国人民从来都是自强不息的，作为中国人你遇到困难应该先自救。
【在 b*******t 的大作中提到】
: 那中国老大能不能先帮我拉上来换口气，拜托，快闷死了
【在 b*******t 的大作中提到】
: 那中国老大能不能先帮我拉上来换口气，拜托，快闷死了
B*F
12 楼
strong in short term, weak in long-term
w*k
13 楼
中国文化的多元性，你要多学习体会好伐。
【在 m*********n 的大作中提到】
: 还有这个撒字， 不知是什么地方方言，看着就难受
【在 m*********n 的大作中提到】
: 还有这个撒字， 不知是什么地方方言，看着就难受
w*k
14 楼
嗯，这就是我发这个帖子的原因。
【在 B****F 的大作中提到】
: strong in short term, weak in long-term
【在 B****F 的大作中提到】
: strong in short term, weak in long-term
m*s
15 楼
中国人民勤劳, agree,
智慧, heng.........
OK
hehe
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
智慧, heng.........
OK
hehe
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 而不是反过来，OK?
: 这个地球上就没有比中国人民更勤劳智慧庞大的群体。
: 所以中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位，人类历史一直在证明这一点。
: 所以做空中国，反对中国的人都是在找死。
m*l
16 楼
当中国有一个自己领先于世界的品牌再说“中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位”吧
，呵呵。这还只是在经济上的猜测。
，呵呵。这还只是在经济上的猜测。
w*k
17 楼
理解，很多人都是不撞南墙不回头的，人类的进化一直伴随着这样的自然淘汰过程。
【在 m*********s 的大作中提到】
: 中国人民勤劳, agree,
: 智慧, heng.........
: OK
: hehe
【在 m*********s 的大作中提到】
: 中国人民勤劳, agree,
: 智慧, heng.........
: OK
: hehe
w*k
18 楼
高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光的区别就是：
高瞻远瞩的第一句话时间跨度经常是“往事越千年”
鼠目寸光的第一句话的时间跨度绝对不会超过5年。
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: 当中国有一个自己领先于世界的品牌再说“中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位”吧
: ，呵呵。这还只是在经济上的猜测。
高瞻远瞩的第一句话时间跨度经常是“往事越千年”
鼠目寸光的第一句话的时间跨度绝对不会超过5年。
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: 当中国有一个自己领先于世界的品牌再说“中国必将长期保持全球唯一的超霸地位”吧
: ，呵呵。这还只是在经济上的猜测。
m*l
19 楼
希望千年以后你还有机会目睹。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光的区别就是：
: 高瞻远瞩的第一句话时间跨度经常是“往事越千年”
: 鼠目寸光的第一句话的时间跨度绝对不会超过5年。
h*g
20 楼
行为艺术
w*k
21 楼
让历史告诉未来，我一直在目睹。
“高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光从来就没有交集的。”
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
:
: 希望千年以后你还有机会目睹。
“高瞻远瞩和鼠目寸光从来就没有交集的。”
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
:
: 希望千年以后你还有机会目睹。
w*k
22 楼
no，扫盲教育。
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: 行为艺术
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: 行为艺术
w*k
23 楼
我写了个fa系列来支持我的看法。
H*T
24 楼
没想到我还有马甲。。。呵呵
1. 外资布局中国地产包括商业、住宅以及国内各类实业企业及个人投资者对房产还有商品市场各类产品的疯狂炒作
2. 中国短期外债余额持续上升
3. 人民币升值
4. 金融市场开放
5. 量化宽松结束
现在还需要做的：
1. 人民币继续升值
2. 金融市场对外资进一步开放，人民币过早国际化，早于产业完成改革升级
3. 美国政府赖账
中国金融危机的所谓黑天鹅事件就诞生了。
中国现在正在自救吧。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 中国人民从来都是自强不息的，作为中国人你遇到困难应该先自救。
1. 外资布局中国地产包括商业、住宅以及国内各类实业企业及个人投资者对房产还有商品市场各类产品的疯狂炒作
2. 中国短期外债余额持续上升
3. 人民币升值
4. 金融市场开放
5. 量化宽松结束
现在还需要做的：
1. 人民币继续升值
2. 金融市场对外资进一步开放，人民币过早国际化，早于产业完成改革升级
3. 美国政府赖账
中国金融危机的所谓黑天鹅事件就诞生了。
中国现在正在自救吧。
【在 w****k 的大作中提到】
: 中国人民从来都是自强不息的，作为中国人你遇到困难应该先自救。
H*T
25 楼
http://blogs.forbes.com/beltway/2011/05/14/could-default-today-
Could Default Today Save America from Greek-Style Fiscal Disaster in the
Future?
May. 14 2011 - 2:57 pm | 762 views | 0 recommendations | 5 comments
Posted by Daniel J. Mitchell
There’s a lot of buzz about a Wall Street Journal interview with Stanley
Druckenmiller, in which he argues that a temporary delay in making payments
on U.S. government debt (which technically would be a default) would be a
small price to pay if it resulted in the long-term spending reforms that are
needed to save America from becoming another Greece.
One of the world’s most successful money managers, the lanky, sandy-
haired Mr. Druckenmiller is so concerned about the government’s ability to
pay for its future obligations that he’s willing to accept a temporary
delay in the interest payments he’s owed on his U.S. Treasury bonds—if the
result is a Washington deal to restrain runaway entitlement costs. “I
think technical default would be horrible,” he says from the 24th floor of
his midtown Manhattan office, “but I don’t think it’s going to be the end
of the world. It’s not going to be catastrophic. What’s going to be
catastrophic is if we don’t solve the real problem,” meaning Washington’s
spending addiction. …Mr. Druckenmiller’s view on the debt limit bumps up
against virtually the entire Wall Street-Washington financial establishment.
A recent note on behalf of giant banks on the Treasury Borrowing Advisory
Committee warned of a “severe and long-lasting impact” if the debt limit
is not raised immediately. …This week more than 60 trade associations,
representing virtually all of American big business, forecast “a massive
spike in borrowing costs.” On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke raised the specter of a market crisis similar to the one that
followed the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. As usual, the most
aggressive predictor of doom in the absence of increased government spending
has been Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. In a May 2 letter to House
Speaker John Boehner, Mr. Geithner warned of “a catastrophic economic
impact” and said, “Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more
severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover.”
Mr. Druckenmiller is not overly impressed by this hyperbole. The article
continues with this key passage.
“Here are your two options: piece of paper number one—let’s just call
it a 10-year Treasury. So I own this piece of paper. I get an income stream
obviously over 10 years . . . and one of my interest payments is going to
be delayed, I don’t know, six days, eight days, 15 days, but I know I’m
going to get it. There’s not a doubt in my mind that it’s not going to pay
, but it’s going to be delayed. But in exchange for that, let’s suppose I
know I’m going to get massive cuts in entitlements and the government is
going to get their house in order so my payments seven, eight, nine, 10
years out are much more assured,” he says. Then there’s “piece of paper
number two,” he says, under a scenario in which the debt limit is quickly
raised to avoid any possible disruption in payments. “I don’t have to wait
six, eight, or 10 days for one of my many payments over 10 years. I get it
on time. But we’re going to continue to pile up trillions of dollars of
debt and I may have a Greek situation on my hands in six or seven years. Now
as an owner, which piece of paper do I want to own? To me it’s a no-
brainer. It’s piece of paper number one.” …”Russia had a real default
and two or three years later they had all-time low interest rates,” says Mr
. Druckenmiller. In the future, he says, “People aren’t going to wonder
whether 20 years ago we delayed an interest payment for six days. They’re
going to wonder whether we got our house in order.”
This is a very compelling argument, but it overlooks one major problem –
the complete inability of Republicans to succeed in forcing fiscal reform
using this approach.
Here’s a sure-fire prediction, assuming GOPers in the House actually are
willing to engage in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Obama on the
debt limit.
o There will be lots of political drama.
o We will get to a point where the federal government exhausts its borrowing
authority.
o At that point, either Geithner or Bernanke (or probably both) will make
some completely dishonest statements designed to rattle financial markets.
o The establishment media will echo those statements.
o The stock market and/or bond market will have a negative reaction.
o Republican resolve will evaporate like a drop of water in the Mojave
Desert.
o The debt limit will be increased without any meaningful fiscal reform.
For all intents and purposes, this is what happened with the TARP vote in
2008. There were basically two choices of how to deal with the financial
crisis. The establishment wanted a blank-check bailout, while sensible
people wanted the “FDIC-resolution” approach (similar to what was used
during the savings & loan bailouts about 20 years ago, which bails out
retail customers but wipes out shareholders, bondholders and senior
management). Republicans initially held firm and defeated the first TARP
vote, but then they folded when the Washington-Wall Street establishment
scared markets.
I hope I’m wrong in my analysis, but I don’t see how Republicans could win
a debt limit fight. At least not if they demand something like the Ryan
budget. The best possible outcome would be budget process reform such as
Senator Corker’s CAP Act, which would impose caps on future spending,
enforced by automatic spending cuts known as sequestration. Because it
postpones the fiscal discipline until after the vote, that legislation has a
chance of attracting enough bipartisan support to overcome opposition from
Obama and other statists.
有商品市场各类产品的疯狂炒作
【在 H**T 的大作中提到】
: 没想到我还有马甲。。。呵呵
: 1. 外资布局中国地产包括商业、住宅以及国内各类实业企业及个人投资者对房产还有商品市场各类产品的疯狂炒作
: 2. 中国短期外债余额持续上升
: 3. 人民币升值
: 4. 金融市场开放
: 5. 量化宽松结束
: 现在还需要做的：
: 1. 人民币继续升值
: 2. 金融市场对外资进一步开放，人民币过早国际化，早于产业完成改革升级
: 3. 美国政府赖账
Could Default Today Save America from Greek-Style Fiscal Disaster in the
Future?
May. 14 2011 - 2:57 pm | 762 views | 0 recommendations | 5 comments
Posted by Daniel J. Mitchell
There’s a lot of buzz about a Wall Street Journal interview with Stanley
Druckenmiller, in which he argues that a temporary delay in making payments
on U.S. government debt (which technically would be a default) would be a
small price to pay if it resulted in the long-term spending reforms that are
needed to save America from becoming another Greece.
One of the world’s most successful money managers, the lanky, sandy-
haired Mr. Druckenmiller is so concerned about the government’s ability to
pay for its future obligations that he’s willing to accept a temporary
delay in the interest payments he’s owed on his U.S. Treasury bonds—if the
result is a Washington deal to restrain runaway entitlement costs. “I
think technical default would be horrible,” he says from the 24th floor of
his midtown Manhattan office, “but I don’t think it’s going to be the end
of the world. It’s not going to be catastrophic. What’s going to be
catastrophic is if we don’t solve the real problem,” meaning Washington’s
spending addiction. …Mr. Druckenmiller’s view on the debt limit bumps up
against virtually the entire Wall Street-Washington financial establishment.
A recent note on behalf of giant banks on the Treasury Borrowing Advisory
Committee warned of a “severe and long-lasting impact” if the debt limit
is not raised immediately. …This week more than 60 trade associations,
representing virtually all of American big business, forecast “a massive
spike in borrowing costs.” On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke raised the specter of a market crisis similar to the one that
followed the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. As usual, the most
aggressive predictor of doom in the absence of increased government spending
has been Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. In a May 2 letter to House
Speaker John Boehner, Mr. Geithner warned of “a catastrophic economic
impact” and said, “Default would cause a financial crisis potentially more
severe than the crisis from which we are only now starting to recover.”
Mr. Druckenmiller is not overly impressed by this hyperbole. The article
continues with this key passage.
“Here are your two options: piece of paper number one—let’s just call
it a 10-year Treasury. So I own this piece of paper. I get an income stream
obviously over 10 years . . . and one of my interest payments is going to
be delayed, I don’t know, six days, eight days, 15 days, but I know I’m
going to get it. There’s not a doubt in my mind that it’s not going to pay
, but it’s going to be delayed. But in exchange for that, let’s suppose I
know I’m going to get massive cuts in entitlements and the government is
going to get their house in order so my payments seven, eight, nine, 10
years out are much more assured,” he says. Then there’s “piece of paper
number two,” he says, under a scenario in which the debt limit is quickly
raised to avoid any possible disruption in payments. “I don’t have to wait
six, eight, or 10 days for one of my many payments over 10 years. I get it
on time. But we’re going to continue to pile up trillions of dollars of
debt and I may have a Greek situation on my hands in six or seven years. Now
as an owner, which piece of paper do I want to own? To me it’s a no-
brainer. It’s piece of paper number one.” …”Russia had a real default
and two or three years later they had all-time low interest rates,” says Mr
. Druckenmiller. In the future, he says, “People aren’t going to wonder
whether 20 years ago we delayed an interest payment for six days. They’re
going to wonder whether we got our house in order.”
This is a very compelling argument, but it overlooks one major problem –
the complete inability of Republicans to succeed in forcing fiscal reform
using this approach.
Here’s a sure-fire prediction, assuming GOPers in the House actually are
willing to engage in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Obama on the
debt limit.
o There will be lots of political drama.
o We will get to a point where the federal government exhausts its borrowing
authority.
o At that point, either Geithner or Bernanke (or probably both) will make
some completely dishonest statements designed to rattle financial markets.
o The establishment media will echo those statements.
o The stock market and/or bond market will have a negative reaction.
o Republican resolve will evaporate like a drop of water in the Mojave
Desert.
o The debt limit will be increased without any meaningful fiscal reform.
For all intents and purposes, this is what happened with the TARP vote in
2008. There were basically two choices of how to deal with the financial
crisis. The establishment wanted a blank-check bailout, while sensible
people wanted the “FDIC-resolution” approach (similar to what was used
during the savings & loan bailouts about 20 years ago, which bails out
retail customers but wipes out shareholders, bondholders and senior
management). Republicans initially held firm and defeated the first TARP
vote, but then they folded when the Washington-Wall Street establishment
scared markets.
I hope I’m wrong in my analysis, but I don’t see how Republicans could win
a debt limit fight. At least not if they demand something like the Ryan
budget. The best possible outcome would be budget process reform such as
Senator Corker’s CAP Act, which would impose caps on future spending,
enforced by automatic spending cuts known as sequestration. Because it
postpones the fiscal discipline until after the vote, that legislation has a
chance of attracting enough bipartisan support to overcome opposition from
Obama and other statists.
有商品市场各类产品的疯狂炒作
【在 H**T 的大作中提到】
: 没想到我还有马甲。。。呵呵
: 1. 外资布局中国地产包括商业、住宅以及国内各类实业企业及个人投资者对房产还有商品市场各类产品的疯狂炒作
: 2. 中国短期外债余额持续上升
: 3. 人民币升值
: 4. 金融市场开放
: 5. 量化宽松结束
: 现在还需要做的：
: 1. 人民币继续升值
: 2. 金融市场对外资进一步开放，人民币过早国际化，早于产业完成改革升级
: 3. 美国政府赖账
w*k
26 楼
温JB又说要过紧日子了？
A股股民真惨，就没过过几天好日子，总是被多难
兴邦
A股股民真惨，就没过过几天好日子，总是被多难
兴邦
o*e
27 楼
长沙滴
【在 m*********n 的大作中提到】
: 还有这个撒字， 不知是什么地方方言，看着就难受
【在 m*********n 的大作中提到】
: 还有这个撒字， 不知是什么地方方言，看着就难受
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