p*8
2 楼
QE3 不要指望太多。可能性在10%以下。
可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
m*o
3 楼
哎，看来是新妈，A和X的是8月30日过期的，早没啦，现在都是S和W的
l*t
4 楼
再有QE的话, 其实给人的信号就是经济is really bad.
不会再有太大作用了.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: QE3 不要指望太多。可能性在10%以下。
: 可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
不会再有太大作用了.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: QE3 不要指望太多。可能性在10%以下。
: 可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
p*8
5 楼
Data is really bad.
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】
: 再有QE的话, 其实给人的信号就是经济is really bad.
: 不会再有太大作用了.
【在 l****t 的大作中提到】
: 再有QE的话, 其实给人的信号就是经济is really bad.
: 不会再有太大作用了.
s*r
6 楼
They will just do it, but keep it as a secret. Or, do it in another name.
t*y
7 楼
教授说，QE3一定会来的。
7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
请Mark。
7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
请Mark。
b*n
8 楼
spt教授，美国有美元，放着这么好的东西不用去冒经济二次dip的危险？没必要。
这种傻事只有宝宝会干。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
这种傻事只有宝宝会干。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
C*G
9 楼
教授开个新贴吧,题目就叫：
Mark My Words：教授说QE3金秋10月一定会来。
我们青蛙也好见证一下，差不多上十大的说。
hiahia
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
Mark My Words：教授说QE3金秋10月一定会来。
我们青蛙也好见证一下，差不多上十大的说。
hiahia
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
p*8
11 楼
先看看QE2的效果吧。还能再来一个QE3？？也就是QE2.5了。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
j*l
12 楼
Ding QE3 10一月定会来
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
【在 t******y 的大作中提到】
: 教授说，QE3一定会来的。
: 7，8月可能性很小，最可能从金秋10月开始。
: 请Mark。
p*8
13 楼
Bernanke Admits Economy Slowing; No Hint of New Stimulus
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday acknowledged a slowdown in the
U.S. economy but offered no suggestion the central bank is considering any
further monetary stimulus to support growth.
He also issued a stern warning to lawmakers in Washington who are
considering aggressive budget cuts, saying they have the potential to derail
the economic recovery if cuts in government spending take hold too soon.
A recent spate of weak economic data, capped by a report Friday showing U.S.
employers expanded payrolls by a meager 54,000 workers last month, has
renewed investor speculation the economy could need more help from the Fed.
"U.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower
than expected," Bernanke told a banking conference. "A number of indicators
also suggest some loss in momentum in labor markets in recent weeks."
He said the recovery was still weak enough to warrant keeping in place the
Fed's strong monetary support, saying the economy was still growing well
below its full potential.
At the same time, Bernanke argued that the latest bout of weakness would
likely not last very long, and should give way to stronger growth in the
second half of the year.
He said a recent spike in U.S. inflation, while worrisome, should be
similarly transitory. Weak growth in wages and stable inflation expectations
suggest few lasting inflation pressures, Bernanke said.
On the budget, Bernanke repeated his call for a long-term plan for a
sustainable fiscal path, but warned politicians against massive short-term
reductions in spending.
"A sharp fiscal consolidation focused on the very near term could be self-
defeating if it were to undercut the still-fragile recovery," Bernanke said.
"By taking decisions today that lead to fiscal consolidation over a longer
horizon, policymakers can avoid a sudden fiscal contraction that could put
the recovery at risk," he said.
All Tapped Out?
The central bank has already slashed overnight interest rates to zero and
purchased more than $2 trillion in government bonds in an effort to pull the
economy from a deep recession and spur a stronger recovery.
With the central bank's balance sheet already bloated, officials have made
clear the bar is high for any further easing of monetary policy. The Fed's
current $600 billion round of government bond buying, known as QE2, runs its
course later this month.
Sharp criticism in the wake of QE2 is one factor likely to make policymakers
reluctant to push the limits of unconventional policy. They also may have
concerns that more stimulus would face diminishing economic returns, while
potentially complicating their effort to return policy to a more normal
footing.
But a further worsening of economic conditions, particularly one that is
accompanied by a reversal of recent upward pressure on inflation, could
change that outlook.
The government's jobs report Friday was almost uniformly bleak. The pace of
hiring was just over a third of what economists had expected and the
unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent, defying predictions for a slight drop.
In a Reuters poll of U.S. primary dealer banks conducted after the
employment data, analysts saw only a 10 percent chance for another round of
government bond purchases by the central bank over the next two years.
Dealers also pushed back the timing of an eventual rate hike further into
2012.
The weakening in the U.S. recovery comes against a backdrop of uncertainty
over the course of fiscal policy and bickering over the U.S. debt limit in
Congress, with Republicans pushing hard for deep budget cuts.
Fragility is Global
Hurdles to better economic health have emerged from overseas as well. Europe
is struggling with a debt crisis, while Japan is still reeling from the
effects of a traumatic earthquake and tsunami.
In emerging markets, China is trying to rein in its red-hot growth to
prevent inflation.
Fed policymakers have admitted to being surprised by how weak the economy
appears, but none have yet called for more stimulus.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank
President Charles Evans, a noted policy dove, said he was not yet ready to
support a third round of so-called quantitative easing. His counterpart in
Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, also said the economy was not weak enough to
warrant further support.
While Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren told CNBC Monday the economy's
weakness might delay the timing of an eventual monetary tightening, the head
of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Richard Fisher, said the Fed may have
already done too much.
Evans and Fisher have a policy vote on the Fed this year while Rosengren and
Lockhart do not.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday acknowledged a slowdown in the
U.S. economy but offered no suggestion the central bank is considering any
further monetary stimulus to support growth.
He also issued a stern warning to lawmakers in Washington who are
considering aggressive budget cuts, saying they have the potential to derail
the economic recovery if cuts in government spending take hold too soon.
A recent spate of weak economic data, capped by a report Friday showing U.S.
employers expanded payrolls by a meager 54,000 workers last month, has
renewed investor speculation the economy could need more help from the Fed.
"U.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower
than expected," Bernanke told a banking conference. "A number of indicators
also suggest some loss in momentum in labor markets in recent weeks."
He said the recovery was still weak enough to warrant keeping in place the
Fed's strong monetary support, saying the economy was still growing well
below its full potential.
At the same time, Bernanke argued that the latest bout of weakness would
likely not last very long, and should give way to stronger growth in the
second half of the year.
He said a recent spike in U.S. inflation, while worrisome, should be
similarly transitory. Weak growth in wages and stable inflation expectations
suggest few lasting inflation pressures, Bernanke said.
On the budget, Bernanke repeated his call for a long-term plan for a
sustainable fiscal path, but warned politicians against massive short-term
reductions in spending.
"A sharp fiscal consolidation focused on the very near term could be self-
defeating if it were to undercut the still-fragile recovery," Bernanke said.
"By taking decisions today that lead to fiscal consolidation over a longer
horizon, policymakers can avoid a sudden fiscal contraction that could put
the recovery at risk," he said.
All Tapped Out?
The central bank has already slashed overnight interest rates to zero and
purchased more than $2 trillion in government bonds in an effort to pull the
economy from a deep recession and spur a stronger recovery.
With the central bank's balance sheet already bloated, officials have made
clear the bar is high for any further easing of monetary policy. The Fed's
current $600 billion round of government bond buying, known as QE2, runs its
course later this month.
Sharp criticism in the wake of QE2 is one factor likely to make policymakers
reluctant to push the limits of unconventional policy. They also may have
concerns that more stimulus would face diminishing economic returns, while
potentially complicating their effort to return policy to a more normal
footing.
But a further worsening of economic conditions, particularly one that is
accompanied by a reversal of recent upward pressure on inflation, could
change that outlook.
The government's jobs report Friday was almost uniformly bleak. The pace of
hiring was just over a third of what economists had expected and the
unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent, defying predictions for a slight drop.
In a Reuters poll of U.S. primary dealer banks conducted after the
employment data, analysts saw only a 10 percent chance for another round of
government bond purchases by the central bank over the next two years.
Dealers also pushed back the timing of an eventual rate hike further into
2012.
The weakening in the U.S. recovery comes against a backdrop of uncertainty
over the course of fiscal policy and bickering over the U.S. debt limit in
Congress, with Republicans pushing hard for deep budget cuts.
Fragility is Global
Hurdles to better economic health have emerged from overseas as well. Europe
is struggling with a debt crisis, while Japan is still reeling from the
effects of a traumatic earthquake and tsunami.
In emerging markets, China is trying to rein in its red-hot growth to
prevent inflation.
Fed policymakers have admitted to being surprised by how weak the economy
appears, but none have yet called for more stimulus.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank
President Charles Evans, a noted policy dove, said he was not yet ready to
support a third round of so-called quantitative easing. His counterpart in
Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, also said the economy was not weak enough to
warrant further support.
While Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren told CNBC Monday the economy's
weakness might delay the timing of an eventual monetary tightening, the head
of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Richard Fisher, said the Fed may have
already done too much.
Evans and Fisher have a policy vote on the Fed this year while Rosengren and
Lockhart do not.
t*y
14 楼
我还是坚持以前的观点，现在不会有，10月份开始。
u*s
15 楼
参与一下，即使有QE也不会这么线性.美元的credit已几乎崩溃，必须重建一下，休耕
一段时间。
如果，经济还不好，QE最早也是半年以后。估计总体的可能性在50%一下。
一段时间。
如果，经济还不好，QE最早也是半年以后。估计总体的可能性在50%一下。
p*8
16 楼
QE3 可能性 很低。与其讨论QE3， 不如讨论没有QE3 怎么挣钱。
N*n
17 楼
SPX chart is full of low volume gap-ups. Were it not QE2 they would all
be filled by now. The longer they wait on QE3 the more those gaps will
be filled. By Fall market would tank so much they'd be forced to bring
QE3 out. They may give it a different name but they have to do it.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: QE3 不要指望太多。可能性在10%以下。
: 可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
t*2
18 楼
什么是QE2.5?
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: QE3 不要指望太多。可能性在10%以下。
: 可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: QE3 不要指望太多。可能性在10%以下。
: 可能是午夜未眠人说的QE2.5。
d*1
19 楼
Next earning season is important. No one knows future. Yeah the economy is
flat. But it could be temporary. Don't
hope for QE3. It won't do good to US.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: SPX chart is full of low volume gap-ups. Were it not QE2 they would all
: be filled by now. The longer they wait on QE3 the more those gaps will
: be filled. By Fall market would tank so much they'd be forced to bring
: QE3 out. They may give it a different name but they have to do it.
p*8
20 楼
看一看，今天的CPI， QE3可能性 更小了。
c*1
21 楼
恩，看来大家情绪在这两个星期内有重大变化哈。我的博客上的投票从绝大多数的票认
为有QE3 到现在的小大多数，变化相当大。
为有QE3 到现在的小大多数，变化相当大。
p*8
22 楼
这两个星期, 大本 和 数据 都指向 NO QE3.
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】
: 恩，看来大家情绪在这两个星期内有重大变化哈。我的博客上的投票从绝大多数的票认
: 为有QE3 到现在的小大多数，变化相当大。
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】
: 恩，看来大家情绪在这两个星期内有重大变化哈。我的博客上的投票从绝大多数的票认
: 为有QE3 到现在的小大多数，变化相当大。
g*n
23 楼
bill gross早就暗示没有qe3了。丫手里有格林斯潘当幕僚
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】
: 恩，看来大家情绪在这两个星期内有重大变化哈。我的博客上的投票从绝大多数的票认
: 为有QE3 到现在的小大多数，变化相当大。
【在 c***1 的大作中提到】
: 恩，看来大家情绪在这两个星期内有重大变化哈。我的博客上的投票从绝大多数的票认
: 为有QE3 到现在的小大多数，变化相当大。
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