ZT:Pre-holiday Effect# Stock
C*i
1 楼
Nothing new, history should repreat itself. Hiahia.
YMYD!!!!
More info, click this link:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_
Over the past century, there have been nine holidays during which the
Exchanges have traditionally been closed. Historical research shows that
stock prices often behave in a specific manner in each of the two trading
days preceding these holidays. By becoming aware of this behavior, both
short-term traders and longer-term investors can benefit.
The general strategy is to purchase equities one or two days prior to a
holiday. Short-term traders would look to sell just after the holiday while
longer-term investors would wait until year end. Both strategies have proven
to be profitable plays. The theory behind this effect is that traders are
lightening up their holdings (selling) prior to the three day holiday in
order to avoid any unexpected bad news. The selling pressure drives stock
prices down, making those days a good opportunity for buying lower in the
range.
Here is the average pre-holiday results for the last 50 years, based on the
S&P 500 Index:
Holiday Buy two days before, sell at year end Buy one day before, sell at
year end
President's Day* -0.1% 12.2%
Good Friday 7.3% 17.8%
Memorial Day -4.7% 22.8%
Independence Day 13.3% 37.3%
Labor Day 16.8% 33.7%
Election Day 17.9% 4.6%
Thanksgiving 4.3% 1.1%
Christmas -7.1% 15.2%
New Year's 31.1% 19.6%
*Note: President's Day data is comprised of the aggregate of both Washington
and Lincoln's Birthday prior to 1998.
The original research was based on the behavior of the S&P 500 Index around
the 419 holiday market closings that occurred from 1928 to 1975.
To put those returns in perspective, if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P
500 Index in January 1928 and sold it all in December 1975, you would have
ended up with $51,441. However, if you had invested one-ninth of your money
just before each pre-holiday period (selling everything at the end of the
year), you would have finished with $1,440,716. Not bad!
YMYD!!!!
More info, click this link:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_
Over the past century, there have been nine holidays during which the
Exchanges have traditionally been closed. Historical research shows that
stock prices often behave in a specific manner in each of the two trading
days preceding these holidays. By becoming aware of this behavior, both
short-term traders and longer-term investors can benefit.
The general strategy is to purchase equities one or two days prior to a
holiday. Short-term traders would look to sell just after the holiday while
longer-term investors would wait until year end. Both strategies have proven
to be profitable plays. The theory behind this effect is that traders are
lightening up their holdings (selling) prior to the three day holiday in
order to avoid any unexpected bad news. The selling pressure drives stock
prices down, making those days a good opportunity for buying lower in the
range.
Here is the average pre-holiday results for the last 50 years, based on the
S&P 500 Index:
Holiday Buy two days before, sell at year end Buy one day before, sell at
year end
President's Day* -0.1% 12.2%
Good Friday 7.3% 17.8%
Memorial Day -4.7% 22.8%
Independence Day 13.3% 37.3%
Labor Day 16.8% 33.7%
Election Day 17.9% 4.6%
Thanksgiving 4.3% 1.1%
Christmas -7.1% 15.2%
New Year's 31.1% 19.6%
*Note: President's Day data is comprised of the aggregate of both Washington
and Lincoln's Birthday prior to 1998.
The original research was based on the behavior of the S&P 500 Index around
the 419 holiday market closings that occurred from 1928 to 1975.
To put those returns in perspective, if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P
500 Index in January 1928 and sold it all in December 1975, you would have
ended up with $51,441. However, if you had invested one-ninth of your money
just before each pre-holiday period (selling everything at the end of the
year), you would have finished with $1,440,716. Not bad!