读混水-展讯公开信后感。。。。# Stock
l*s
1 楼
通读了一遍公开信，讲的还是老调调，攻击展讯的90天defered cost/ defered income... 关于武平离职的问题，是个人都知leo上台后sprd的变化。。。。这个也需要谈吗？
The company’s revenue in the third quarter of 2009 was $38.4 million, up 92 percent from a year earlier and 137 percent from the second quarter, according to a PR Newsire statement on Nov. 16, 2009.
“Why would the board have lost confidence in Mr. Wu when the sales pipeline was so promising?” Muddy Waters wrote in its report. “Because it would be unusual to fire a CFO during the financing process, is it fair to assume he chose to leave? If ‘yes,’ why would he have left with such strong sales in the pipeline?”
关于这点其实很简单，要说服厂商换手机芯片需要一个很长的过程，展讯给了90天退货
保障，这样设计厂家如果有问题可以随时退货。这样展讯自己的inventory加大，并且
没有任何income(都是defered). 到一段时间后展讯方案被消化接受，厂商付款，展讯
才可以记账。。。这样风险是大写，但是考虑到这个事情2010年就开始了，已经1年多
了，展讯方案已经稳定下来了，大规模退货不太会发生。下次财报展讯要好好解释一下。
VI. We note that the sizes of five balance sheet / cash flow statement
accounts
grew tremendously in 2010. These accounts are among those that we consider
high risk because they are primarily evidenced by paper documentation,
rather
than their physical presence (as in machinery and equipment). The abundance
of paper accounts on the balance sheet was one of the early signs to us that
Rino International Corp. was a fraud. It is clear that auditors in China are
having significant problems evaluating the veracity of documents.
As discussed infra, we note that 44.8% of SPRD’s 2010 year-end inventory is
“deferred cost”, which means that the inventory has been shipped to
customers, but has not yet been booked as revenue. We therefore assume that
the auditors did not lay eyes on most (if not all) of the deferred cost
inventory.
The cash flow statement accounts that bother us the most because of their
unusual sizes in 2010 (compared to earlier years) are shown below – note
that
all are operating cash flow accounts.
6/
混水的第二点是装傻呢！连深圳卖白板的小贩都知道展讯芯片方案去年大卖因为MTK的
芯片切换没搞好。。。展讯的方案在各大手机设计公司都有， 这个15%市场增长在各个
大网站都有(eedesign..etc).去年手机市场还不错， 这点绝对是故意挑刺。。。
MediaTek (2454.TW) had approximately 90% of the mainland China mobile
handset chip market in 2009. Mobile handset chips are by far its largest
revenue source – currently accounting for more than 70% of revenue.3
Estimates now place MediaTek’s mainland market share at only 70%, with
SPRD at 20% (an increase of about 15 percentage points). (It appears that
these estimates are based in part on SPRD’s reported numbers.) However,
MediaTek reported that its 2010 revenue decreased by 1.4%.
For MediaTek, which relies heavily on mobile handset chips, to have reported
a sales decline of only 1.4% while seemingly losing 15 percentage points of
market share to SPRD, the mainland China market for mobile handset chips
must have grown substantially in 2010.
However, we note that both SPRD and MediaTek faced headwinds as
mainland China authorities cracked down in 2010 on gray market handset
manufacturers. At the high end of the market, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:
QCOM) only grew its 2010 revenue 5.5%.
By how much did SPRD’s mainland China markets (by product type) grow in
2010?
举个例子：
在谈到展讯的90天芯片不记账问题（这个是展讯被最近被狠打的一个主要原因）。
混水认为客户在order之前就test了，这样芯片就不会出问题了？手机芯片需要系统集
成测试，90天一点不过。尤其如果厂商切换芯片(MTK->SPRD).
A blogger recently stated that SPRD’s new clients are being given up to 90
days to inspect the chips because SPRD is a new supplier,4 which is the
reason
for the deferred cost. If SPRD agrees with that assessment, we are a bit
perplexed as to how SPRD would maintain good relationships with its
existing clients – presumably they would be unhappy with the preferential
treatment being given to new clients. We note that MediaTek has no deferred
cost account, and thus does not appear to extend this policy. The rationale
that new customers want the inspection period because SPRD is a new
supplier also strikes us as odd because SPRD and its main competitor
MediaTek are fabless semiconductor companies. SPRD’s chips are assembled
by TSMC. Supplier-specific product defects would therefore be more likely
due to design issues than manufacturing, and SPRD’s 20-F indicates that
clients test the designs before ordering.5
Why have each of advances from customers and deferred cost become so
significant?
The company’s revenue in the third quarter of 2009 was $38.4 million, up 92 percent from a year earlier and 137 percent from the second quarter, according to a PR Newsire statement on Nov. 16, 2009.
“Why would the board have lost confidence in Mr. Wu when the sales pipeline was so promising?” Muddy Waters wrote in its report. “Because it would be unusual to fire a CFO during the financing process, is it fair to assume he chose to leave? If ‘yes,’ why would he have left with such strong sales in the pipeline?”
关于这点其实很简单，要说服厂商换手机芯片需要一个很长的过程，展讯给了90天退货
保障，这样设计厂家如果有问题可以随时退货。这样展讯自己的inventory加大，并且
没有任何income(都是defered). 到一段时间后展讯方案被消化接受，厂商付款，展讯
才可以记账。。。这样风险是大写，但是考虑到这个事情2010年就开始了，已经1年多
了，展讯方案已经稳定下来了，大规模退货不太会发生。下次财报展讯要好好解释一下。
VI. We note that the sizes of five balance sheet / cash flow statement
accounts
grew tremendously in 2010. These accounts are among those that we consider
high risk because they are primarily evidenced by paper documentation,
rather
than their physical presence (as in machinery and equipment). The abundance
of paper accounts on the balance sheet was one of the early signs to us that
Rino International Corp. was a fraud. It is clear that auditors in China are
having significant problems evaluating the veracity of documents.
As discussed infra, we note that 44.8% of SPRD’s 2010 year-end inventory is
“deferred cost”, which means that the inventory has been shipped to
customers, but has not yet been booked as revenue. We therefore assume that
the auditors did not lay eyes on most (if not all) of the deferred cost
inventory.
The cash flow statement accounts that bother us the most because of their
unusual sizes in 2010 (compared to earlier years) are shown below – note
that
all are operating cash flow accounts.
6/
混水的第二点是装傻呢！连深圳卖白板的小贩都知道展讯芯片方案去年大卖因为MTK的
芯片切换没搞好。。。展讯的方案在各大手机设计公司都有， 这个15%市场增长在各个
大网站都有(eedesign..etc).去年手机市场还不错， 这点绝对是故意挑刺。。。
MediaTek (2454.TW) had approximately 90% of the mainland China mobile
handset chip market in 2009. Mobile handset chips are by far its largest
revenue source – currently accounting for more than 70% of revenue.3
Estimates now place MediaTek’s mainland market share at only 70%, with
SPRD at 20% (an increase of about 15 percentage points). (It appears that
these estimates are based in part on SPRD’s reported numbers.) However,
MediaTek reported that its 2010 revenue decreased by 1.4%.
For MediaTek, which relies heavily on mobile handset chips, to have reported
a sales decline of only 1.4% while seemingly losing 15 percentage points of
market share to SPRD, the mainland China market for mobile handset chips
must have grown substantially in 2010.
However, we note that both SPRD and MediaTek faced headwinds as
mainland China authorities cracked down in 2010 on gray market handset
manufacturers. At the high end of the market, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:
QCOM) only grew its 2010 revenue 5.5%.
By how much did SPRD’s mainland China markets (by product type) grow in
2010?
举个例子：
在谈到展讯的90天芯片不记账问题（这个是展讯被最近被狠打的一个主要原因）。
混水认为客户在order之前就test了，这样芯片就不会出问题了？手机芯片需要系统集
成测试，90天一点不过。尤其如果厂商切换芯片(MTK->SPRD).
A blogger recently stated that SPRD’s new clients are being given up to 90
days to inspect the chips because SPRD is a new supplier,4 which is the
reason
for the deferred cost. If SPRD agrees with that assessment, we are a bit
perplexed as to how SPRD would maintain good relationships with its
existing clients – presumably they would be unhappy with the preferential
treatment being given to new clients. We note that MediaTek has no deferred
cost account, and thus does not appear to extend this policy. The rationale
that new customers want the inspection period because SPRD is a new
supplier also strikes us as odd because SPRD and its main competitor
MediaTek are fabless semiconductor companies. SPRD’s chips are assembled
by TSMC. Supplier-specific product defects would therefore be more likely
due to design issues than manufacturing, and SPRD’s 20-F indicates that
clients test the designs before ordering.5
Why have each of advances from customers and deferred cost become so
significant?
