time to evaluate# Stock
t*y
1 楼
感觉这个评论对中该很中肯。各位股友有何指点？
http://www.minyanville.com/buzz/buzzalert/time-to-evaluate/07/0
Indices paused yesterday as leaders continued to move up and break out. Last
week the market had its most powerful move since 2009, taking numerous
market participants by surprise. Next few days will be tricky as key stocks
continue to act great, but the indices themselves are extremely overbought.
Market is ignoring news like the “Portugal debt downgrade” as well as
chatter of some “Banking problems in China”.
At this point it feels like the fix is in. You must play along, because
getting stubborn can be painful.
SPY- Futures off a bit this morning.
Support is 133.39- a break below this area should give us 132.90-133 and
then a Retest of the 50 day around 131.92.
Resistance is the two day high around 134.10- if market goes positive and
trades through that level- those caught short will have to figure out if
they just want to cover or stick around for a bigger time frame trade, that
could be painful. Above that I see 134.92, then 136.11 and the high of 138.
18
Tech- the strong stocks continue to break out even in an overbought market.
The below 5 stocks are the ones we pounded the table for the Active investor
/Institution for the “longer term trade”
Apple (AAPL)- I continue to believe that this is a must own for a move to
425 Plus this year and it’s now testing the upper end of the channel. For
the cash flow investor- it’s a tough spot since it just came from 310 area
about 40 points ago. Use 349.83 as a pivot for the short term- both long and
short
Netflix (NFLX)- New highs- traders acting fast bought around 52 week highs
and got rewarded as it had nice continuation – this should see over 300
pretty soon
Amazon (AMZN)- acted best during the market correction- making new highs
even with the “California tax scenario”. It’s well above out last two buy
points and for a the short term- maybe it gets a 80-20 trade for a quickie
214.50 is that short term pivot
Salesforce.com (CRM)- another name that I’ve said is “investment quality
for the long term- looks ready to break out for cash flow- 145-146 was the
last trigger. Now use 154.26 as a momentum new highs entry- great hold for
the investor- sloppy for the trader at times
VMWare (VMW)- This stock has also been outlined for the “active investor”
that holds- last trigger was 95-96 and now it looks ready for a momentum
trade above 101.30.
Chinese stocks
Baidu (BIDU)- Stock is very extended from recent buy pivots of 121-125 and
now it’s giving decent two way action- shorting big gap ups- but not adding
for downside follow through. Use yesterday’s high as a pivot 146.30 if you
’re looking to play that game. The cost of an average game is too painful.
SINA- big day yesterday to continue the big move from the 93-93.50 pivot,
now it’s very hard to buy – 116.19 is that pivot and then 119-121 will be
a MAJOR resistance area that could cause a big pause.
China New Borun (BORN)- finally gave us the trade we were looking for from
the 5.25 buy price- it just took a week.
SOHU- decent move yesterday- I’d just trade it
Youku (YOKU)- some cash flow yesterday, but no continuation. Still has some
room to 42
DangDang (DANG)- still has a set up – if it can get above 12.66-12.80 and
for a quick move to 14- then perhaps 16-17.49
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Lululemon (LULU) both reached new highs.
Potash (POT)- nice move from my 55.50 entry, its still in the game for the
longer term investor- should be at new highs at some point this year.
CF Industires (CF)- resting and didn’t really partake in the fun- one day
it can go again if ot breaks above 148-150
OpenTable (OPEN)- nice trade for the community when we listed it around 79.
50-81. It had a big day yesterday- hopefully you enjoyed. Now it’s tricky,
the next level of resistance is 95.
Metals- had a big move yesterday with some miners
GLD-has some converging moving averages that should be watched- around 148.
50
Silver- is at the upper end of this lower range- decent downtrend to contend
with here- 34.80-35 should be interesting in the SLV- than 35.85
Last week took many investors and traders by surprise, guys with weekly
options that sat there got blown out of the water naked. Those looking for a
window dressing move positioning long sold early because they didn’t
expect the power. Lastly, shorts that started too early are in trouble- even
those that thought they waited are frustrated. Let’s all treat this as a
learning experience. Expect the unexpected.
Learn more about Buzz & Banter.
http://www.minyanville.com/buzz/buzzalert/time-to-evaluate/07/0
Indices paused yesterday as leaders continued to move up and break out. Last
week the market had its most powerful move since 2009, taking numerous
market participants by surprise. Next few days will be tricky as key stocks
continue to act great, but the indices themselves are extremely overbought.
Market is ignoring news like the “Portugal debt downgrade” as well as
chatter of some “Banking problems in China”.
At this point it feels like the fix is in. You must play along, because
getting stubborn can be painful.
SPY- Futures off a bit this morning.
Support is 133.39- a break below this area should give us 132.90-133 and
then a Retest of the 50 day around 131.92.
Resistance is the two day high around 134.10- if market goes positive and
trades through that level- those caught short will have to figure out if
they just want to cover or stick around for a bigger time frame trade, that
could be painful. Above that I see 134.92, then 136.11 and the high of 138.
18
Tech- the strong stocks continue to break out even in an overbought market.
The below 5 stocks are the ones we pounded the table for the Active investor
/Institution for the “longer term trade”
Apple (AAPL)- I continue to believe that this is a must own for a move to
425 Plus this year and it’s now testing the upper end of the channel. For
the cash flow investor- it’s a tough spot since it just came from 310 area
about 40 points ago. Use 349.83 as a pivot for the short term- both long and
short
Netflix (NFLX)- New highs- traders acting fast bought around 52 week highs
and got rewarded as it had nice continuation – this should see over 300
pretty soon
Amazon (AMZN)- acted best during the market correction- making new highs
even with the “California tax scenario”. It’s well above out last two buy
points and for a the short term- maybe it gets a 80-20 trade for a quickie
214.50 is that short term pivot
Salesforce.com (CRM)- another name that I’ve said is “investment quality
for the long term- looks ready to break out for cash flow- 145-146 was the
last trigger. Now use 154.26 as a momentum new highs entry- great hold for
the investor- sloppy for the trader at times
VMWare (VMW)- This stock has also been outlined for the “active investor”
that holds- last trigger was 95-96 and now it looks ready for a momentum
trade above 101.30.
Chinese stocks
Baidu (BIDU)- Stock is very extended from recent buy pivots of 121-125 and
now it’s giving decent two way action- shorting big gap ups- but not adding
for downside follow through. Use yesterday’s high as a pivot 146.30 if you
’re looking to play that game. The cost of an average game is too painful.
SINA- big day yesterday to continue the big move from the 93-93.50 pivot,
now it’s very hard to buy – 116.19 is that pivot and then 119-121 will be
a MAJOR resistance area that could cause a big pause.
China New Borun (BORN)- finally gave us the trade we were looking for from
the 5.25 buy price- it just took a week.
SOHU- decent move yesterday- I’d just trade it
Youku (YOKU)- some cash flow yesterday, but no continuation. Still has some
room to 42
DangDang (DANG)- still has a set up – if it can get above 12.66-12.80 and
for a quick move to 14- then perhaps 16-17.49
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Lululemon (LULU) both reached new highs.
Potash (POT)- nice move from my 55.50 entry, its still in the game for the
longer term investor- should be at new highs at some point this year.
CF Industires (CF)- resting and didn’t really partake in the fun- one day
it can go again if ot breaks above 148-150
OpenTable (OPEN)- nice trade for the community when we listed it around 79.
50-81. It had a big day yesterday- hopefully you enjoyed. Now it’s tricky,
the next level of resistance is 95.
Metals- had a big move yesterday with some miners
GLD-has some converging moving averages that should be watched- around 148.
50
Silver- is at the upper end of this lower range- decent downtrend to contend
with here- 34.80-35 should be interesting in the SLV- than 35.85
Last week took many investors and traders by surprise, guys with weekly
options that sat there got blown out of the water naked. Those looking for a
window dressing move positioning long sold early because they didn’t
expect the power. Lastly, shorts that started too early are in trouble- even
those that thought they waited are frustrated. Let’s all treat this as a
learning experience. Expect the unexpected.
Learn more about Buzz & Banter.