LULU: in my 10 years of looking at retailers, this is the most ridiculously priced company. They are obviously firing on all cylinders, but it is laughable how anyone can capitalize current margins and sales productivity ( just read the latest quarterly call and see how much one-off there is in the gross margin line). i am virtually certain this will be a $30 stock some time in the next 3 years. The trick is obviously when and whether it could visit $150 first. A small short position seems appropriate. Dangerous short though as i know the top shareholders. They don't care about valuation as long as LULU posts 20% store growth and double digit SSS growth. GMCR: A very tough stock. i have smart friends arguing from both sides. i am more in the bear camp as this company has not produced a single cent of FCF despite the razor-blade model. The current market cap/EV is also frightening vs. SBUX. seriously, you expect me to believe GMCR can be half of success of SBUX? in the too tough pile for me. CROX: i had a small position when it was a turnaround and trading around $1, but bailed way too early. no strong opinion here. in my opinion, the entire consumer discretionary complex is over-valued now. there are a couple of small orphan/value stocks, but i'd be wary of making big bets in the group here. Seasonality also works against you now.
that's ridiculous. the investor base in LULU is mostly US institutions. i know the top investors since LULU was brought public by GS and touted as IPO of the year.
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】 : LULU: in my 10 years of looking at retailers, this is the most ridiculously : priced company. They are obviously firing on all cylinders, but it is : laughable how anyone can capitalize current margins and sales productivity ( : just read the latest quarterly call and see how much one-off there is in the : gross margin line). i am virtually certain this will be a $30 stock some : time in the next 3 years. The trick is obviously when and whether it could : visit $150 first. A small short position seems appropriate. Dangerous short : though as i know the top shareholders. They don't care about valuation as : long as LULU posts 20% store growth and double digit SSS growth. : GMCR: A very tough stock. i have smart friends arguing from both sides. i am
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】 : LULU: in my 10 years of looking at retailers, this is the most ridiculously : priced company. They are obviously firing on all cylinders, but it is : laughable how anyone can capitalize current margins and sales productivity ( : just read the latest quarterly call and see how much one-off there is in the : gross margin line). i am virtually certain this will be a $30 stock some : time in the next 3 years. The trick is obviously when and whether it could : visit $150 first. A small short position seems appropriate. Dangerous short : though as i know the top shareholders. They don't care about valuation as : long as LULU posts 20% store growth and double digit SSS growth. : GMCR: A very tough stock. i have smart friends arguing from both sides. i am