[合集] 两种基本无用的TA方法# Stock
u*e
1 楼
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psp (I love psp) 于 (Fri Nov 9 22:44:15 2007) 提到:
candlestick pattern and elliot five wave theory
candlestick pattern:
TA need 5 elements, open, close, high,low and volume, for future, one more element, open interest.
How many elements are used to identify candlestick pattern? only open, close, high,low.
How many previous bars are identify candlestick pattern? most of time, 3-4 bars.
What accuracy can you expect on candlestick pattern based on so limited info?
I have the 2 candlestick pattern DVD seminar set by steve nisons that I bought at $700 and candlestick toolbox for metastock.
Before I watch the DVD, I back test by using candlestick toolbox for metastock. I am very disappointed. The accuracy for various continuous and reverse pattern ranges from 42-54%, depends on instruments, slightly better than flipping coins. So I don'
d to waste my time to watch his DVD.
详情待续
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guanjiu (酒倌副所) 于 (Thu Apr 21 01:39:53 2011, 美东) 提到:
PSP是很洒脱的人!
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aripple (aripple) 于 (Thu Apr 21 07:17:07 2011, 美东) 提到:
I have a statistics by someone on
hundreds stocks on 20 or so candlestick patterns.
He used EOD, and based on what I said,
given patterns, most following probabilities of up/down
for the following day is more or less 4x - 5x.
But it really depends on how you read those, I think an
exit plan is more important in many cases. Counting
following up/down ain't exact way to evaluate it.
As of intraday trading, I found candlestick patterns are
pretty effective.
At least, you don't have to use it as a leading indicator, it
could be a good filter candidate.
I disagree it's useless. Regarding five wave theory,
it's too subjective, so it's hard to prove it's useless
or useful.
better
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updownlife (渔夫) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:01:22 2011, 美东) 提到:
好文
most candlestick patterns are really useless especially if you are looking
for the directions longer than 5 days
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walstudio (午夜未眠人) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:23:10 2011, 美东) 提到:
不赞同，得看怎么用，我炒A股就一招，
如果开始跌了，就等到出现连续两个higher high,higher low才进场，中长线操作，非
常有效。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wuyiwuxi (无依无系) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:43:10 2011, 美东) 提到:
我也刚刚对蜡烛感兴趣, 先学习一下
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boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:44:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
独立的蜡烛用处不大，蜡烛最大的好出是能告诉你怎样分散风险。我就不展开说了
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cmrhm (Believing is the key) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:47:02 2011, 美东) 提到:
来个图吧。谢谢乐。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Chapterxi (ChapterXI＿先知三日．苦干一年) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:49:39 2011, 美东) 提到:
量 量 量
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 21 09:04:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
是的，向我这样的高手任何指标拿来都能应用自如。
纯属扯淡，切莫轻信
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 21 09:11:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
PSP基本上就是一个joke
蜡烛线不是不管用，而是独立的蜡烛线不管用。这期间区别很大。TA这个鸟东西是要搭
配使用的，绝不能独立实用。
psp (I love psp) 于 (Fri Nov 9 22:44:15 2007) 提到:
candlestick pattern and elliot five wave theory
candlestick pattern:
TA need 5 elements, open, close, high,low and volume, for future, one more element, open interest.
How many elements are used to identify candlestick pattern? only open, close, high,low.
How many previous bars are identify candlestick pattern? most of time, 3-4 bars.
What accuracy can you expect on candlestick pattern based on so limited info?
I have the 2 candlestick pattern DVD seminar set by steve nisons that I bought at $700 and candlestick toolbox for metastock.
Before I watch the DVD, I back test by using candlestick toolbox for metastock. I am very disappointed. The accuracy for various continuous and reverse pattern ranges from 42-54%, depends on instruments, slightly better than flipping coins. So I don'
d to waste my time to watch his DVD.
详情待续
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
guanjiu (酒倌副所) 于 (Thu Apr 21 01:39:53 2011, 美东) 提到:
PSP是很洒脱的人!
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
aripple (aripple) 于 (Thu Apr 21 07:17:07 2011, 美东) 提到:
I have a statistics by someone on
hundreds stocks on 20 or so candlestick patterns.
He used EOD, and based on what I said,
given patterns, most following probabilities of up/down
for the following day is more or less 4x - 5x.
But it really depends on how you read those, I think an
exit plan is more important in many cases. Counting
following up/down ain't exact way to evaluate it.
As of intraday trading, I found candlestick patterns are
pretty effective.
At least, you don't have to use it as a leading indicator, it
could be a good filter candidate.
I disagree it's useless. Regarding five wave theory,
it's too subjective, so it's hard to prove it's useless
or useful.
better
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
updownlife (渔夫) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:01:22 2011, 美东) 提到:
好文
most candlestick patterns are really useless especially if you are looking
for the directions longer than 5 days
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
walstudio (午夜未眠人) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:23:10 2011, 美东) 提到:
不赞同，得看怎么用，我炒A股就一招，
如果开始跌了，就等到出现连续两个higher high,higher low才进场，中长线操作，非
常有效。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wuyiwuxi (无依无系) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:43:10 2011, 美东) 提到:
我也刚刚对蜡烛感兴趣, 先学习一下
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:44:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
独立的蜡烛用处不大，蜡烛最大的好出是能告诉你怎样分散风险。我就不展开说了
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
cmrhm (Believing is the key) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:47:02 2011, 美东) 提到:
来个图吧。谢谢乐。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Chapterxi (ChapterXI＿先知三日．苦干一年) 于 (Thu Apr 21 08:49:39 2011, 美东) 提到:
量 量 量
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 21 09:04:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
是的，向我这样的高手任何指标拿来都能应用自如。
纯属扯淡，切莫轻信
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
boshihou2 (捉蛇者) 于 (Thu Apr 21 09:11:09 2011, 美东) 提到:
PSP基本上就是一个joke
蜡烛线不是不管用，而是独立的蜡烛线不管用。这期间区别很大。TA这个鸟东西是要搭
配使用的，绝不能独立实用。