Hold on please - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

Hold on please# Stock

t*l2011-08-08 07:08

1 楼

Downside risk becomes quite small at this point. The QE3 will be triggered
if s&p500 tumbles below 1050, which is only one shock away. The assumption
here is we are not in a recession now. I see a short-term rally (a week or
two) from here. Tomorrow Fed will probably address rating downgrade concern and
inform the market all options on the table, but NOT hint QE3. QE3 will come
anyway due to the extremely weak economics data.
Conclusion: sell in the following rally, and wait for the next round of
stimulus.
P.S. Remember NOT to use margin power no matter long or short at this point. Caution is the key now.

P*H2011-08-08 07:08

2 楼

热

i*22011-08-08 07:08

3 楼

THX

f*n2011-08-08 07:08

4 楼

mark

x*g2011-08-08 07:08

5 楼

re.
更大的可能性，是这个rally在fed meeting后，还是明天就会回拉呢？

concern and
come

【在 t***l 的大作中提到】

: Downside risk becomes quite small at this point. The QE3 will be triggered
: if s&p500 tumbles below 1050, which is only one shock away. The assumption
: here is we are not in a recession now. I see a short-term rally (a week or
: two) from here. Tomorrow Fed will probably address rating downgrade concern and
: inform the market all options on the table, but NOT hint QE3. QE3 will come
: anyway due to the extremely weak economics data.
: Conclusion: sell in the following rally, and wait for the next round of
: stimulus.
: P.S. Remember NOT to use margin power no matter long or short at this point. Caution is the key now.

t*o2011-08-08 07:08

6 楼

还stimulus呢上一轮已然失败了啊

concern and
come
point. Caution is the key now.

【在 t***l 的大作中提到】

: Downside risk becomes quite small at this point. The QE3 will be triggered
: if s&p500 tumbles below 1050, which is only one shock away. The assumption
: here is we are not in a recession now. I see a short-term rally (a week or
: two) from here. Tomorrow Fed will probably address rating downgrade concern and
: inform the market all options on the table, but NOT hint QE3. QE3 will come
: anyway due to the extremely weak economics data.
: Conclusion: sell in the following rally, and wait for the next round of
: stimulus.
: P.S. Remember NOT to use margin power no matter long or short at this point. Caution is the key now.

f*g2011-08-08 07:08

7 楼

good analysis & suggestions

concern and
come
point. Caution is the key now.

【在 t***l 的大作中提到】

: Downside risk becomes quite small at this point. The QE3 will be triggered
: if s&p500 tumbles below 1050, which is only one shock away. The assumption
: here is we are not in a recession now. I see a short-term rally (a week or
: two) from here. Tomorrow Fed will probably address rating downgrade concern and
: inform the market all options on the table, but NOT hint QE3. QE3 will come
: anyway due to the extremely weak economics data.
: Conclusion: sell in the following rally, and wait for the next round of
: stimulus.
: P.S. Remember NOT to use margin power no matter long or short at this point. Caution is the key now.

f*g2011-08-08 07:08

8 楼

也谈不上失败
better than doing nothing

【在 t**o 的大作中提到】

: 还stimulus呢上一轮已然失败了啊
:
: concern and
: come
: point. Caution is the key now.

s*r2011-08-08 07:08

9 楼

ｍａｒｋ

t*l2011-08-08 07:08

10 楼

I don't think next stimulus will improve economics as well. But we are
talking about equity market, right?

【在 t**o 的大作中提到】

: 还stimulus呢上一轮已然失败了啊
:
: concern and
: come
: point. Caution is the key now.

S*s2011-08-08 07:08

11 楼

难得楼主为大家着想。版上多几个这样的人就好了。

concern and
come
point. Caution is the key now.

【在 t***l 的大作中提到】

: Downside risk becomes quite small at this point. The QE3 will be triggered
: if s&p500 tumbles below 1050, which is only one shock away. The assumption
: here is we are not in a recession now. I see a short-term rally (a week or
: two) from here. Tomorrow Fed will probably address rating downgrade concern and
: inform the market all options on the table, but NOT hint QE3. QE3 will come
: anyway due to the extremely weak economics data.
: Conclusion: sell in the following rally, and wait for the next round of
: stimulus.
: P.S. Remember NOT to use margin power no matter long or short at this point. Caution is the key now.

t*l2011-08-08 07:08

12 楼

It seems the coming week will show us surprisingly good economics data,
except that Empire Manufacturing will surely be bad. Market will rally in
short term (5--8 sessions).
BUT... 9/1 PMI index, 9/2 unemployment rate, 9/14 retail data are expected
to be bad...

concern and
come
point. Caution is the key now.

【在 t***l 的大作中提到】

: Downside risk becomes quite small at this point. The QE3 will be triggered
: if s&p500 tumbles below 1050, which is only one shock away. The assumption
: here is we are not in a recession now. I see a short-term rally (a week or
: two) from here. Tomorrow Fed will probably address rating downgrade concern and
: inform the market all options on the table, but NOT hint QE3. QE3 will come
: anyway due to the extremely weak economics data.
: Conclusion: sell in the following rally, and wait for the next round of
: stimulus.
: P.S. Remember NOT to use margin power no matter long or short at this point. Caution is the key now.