USD index is at the bottom, QE3 is not possible - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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USD index is at the bottom, QE3 is not possible

USD index is at the bottom, QE3 is not possible# Stock

m*a2011-08-25 07:08

1 楼

Unless the US government wants to destroy the US dollar as the world central
bank reserve which is going to be a disaster for the USA. They'd rather let
the stock market plunge than doing this self-destruction suicide.
Anyone has any comments?

S*X2011-08-25 07:08

2 楼

你怎么会认为有人在赌QE3？？

m*a2011-08-25 07:08

3 楼

不是QE3,那么版上那么多人都在YY什么呢?

【在 S****X 的大作中提到】

: 你怎么会认为有人在赌QE3？？

o*y2011-08-25 07:08

4 楼

No, they would rather let US dollar plunge instead of stock market. The
logic is so easy.
1. The depreciation of US dollar will cause appreciation of other currencies
, so that trade blance looks better. Remember how hard they have tried to
depreciate USD against RMB.
2. The collapse of stock market is a disaster for government. A lot of
people will go bankrupt immediately.
3. With depreciated USD, the US can technically default their staggering
amount of debt.
You are right that depreciation of USD forever is a self-destruction suicide
, but it will not happen next day. Politicians are short-sighted, and that's
all they know to do.
Last information is that, US dollar index is ready to rally, you should
expect it to go back to 80, and then US government will introduce QE3 to
plunge it.

central
let

【在 m****a 的大作中提到】

: Unless the US government wants to destroy the US dollar as the world central
: bank reserve which is going to be a disaster for the USA. They'd rather let
: the stock market plunge than doing this self-destruction suicide.
: Anyone has any comments?

S*X2011-08-25 07:08

5 楼

YY不会紧缩，YY伯南克表态要尽力配合帮助复苏。 YY 欧行要释放流动性，YY周末老巴
的筹款晚会和劳动节奥黑经过老巴认证的新方案, YY超跌反弹，YY BAC不会破产，YY
意大利减赤方案通过评级affirm，YY 希腊破产根本不是年内的事，YY 欧洲大撤资的资
金去向， YY顽固的老犹buy back in Sept。 YY 这个月其实啥本质改变都没发生，YY
美帝今年奔溃说根本就是YY
够么？ who cares QE3?
没有, 至少不会直接公布QE3 是100%的。那谁在买？明天最坏状况，一根长阴破前低
，然后深V。。

【在 m****a 的大作中提到】

: 不是QE3,那么版上那么多人都在YY什么呢?

l*o2011-08-25 07:08

6 楼

赞！我也觉得有无qe3都没太大关系，而且目前市场貌似price in no qe3。

YY

【在 S****X 的大作中提到】

:
: YY不会紧缩，YY伯南克表态要尽力配合帮助复苏。 YY 欧行要释放流动性，YY周末老巴
: 的筹款晚会和劳动节奥黑经过老巴认证的新方案, YY超跌反弹，YY BAC不会破产，YY
: 意大利减赤方案通过评级affirm，YY 希腊破产根本不是年内的事，YY 欧洲大撤资的资
: 金去向， YY顽固的老犹buy back in Sept。 YY 这个月其实啥本质改变都没发生，YY
: 美帝今年奔溃说根本就是YY
: 够么？ who cares QE3?
: 没有, 至少不会直接公布QE3 是100%的。那谁在买？明天最坏状况，一根长阴破前低
: ，然后深V。。

m*a2011-08-25 07:08

7 楼

那么多黑天鹅事件如果每个事件发生概率5%，那么找你的YY完全避免需要：0.95^11=0.
5,差不多明天1/2的机会暴跌，1/2的机会暴涨，是不是：）

YY

【在 S****X 的大作中提到】

m*a2011-08-25 07:08

8 楼

I totally agree. I think smart money has exit since January and market
plunge will not do any harm to them. They need an unbelievable price to buy
back. Do you think 1100 to 1200 is unbelievable price?

currencies
suicide

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】

: No, they would rather let US dollar plunge instead of stock market. The
: logic is so easy.
: 1. The depreciation of US dollar will cause appreciation of other currencies
: , so that trade blance looks better. Remember how hard they have tried to
: depreciate USD against RMB.
: 2. The collapse of stock market is a disaster for government. A lot of
: people will go bankrupt immediately.
: 3. With depreciated USD, the US can technically default their staggering
: amount of debt.
: You are right that depreciation of USD forever is a self-destruction suicide

o*y2011-08-25 07:08

9 楼

I don't believe there is much smart money. Most institute investors only do
an average job. The only different thing is that they have more money than
individual investors. I think most institute investors' money is still in
stock market, that's why the SPY is still so high compared to 2009's low. As
I said US dollar is going to rebound pretty soon, at least beack to 80. In
the meantime, liquidity starts to shrink so that SPY may plunge to 1000, oil
price to 70, gold price to 1600. In short, everything except cash will be
cheaper pretty soon. After that, FED will introduce another QE to plunge US
dollar, or in other word, to push money back to assets market (stocks,
commodities, bonds) from the cash.

buy

【在 m****a 的大作中提到】

: I totally agree. I think smart money has exit since January and market
: plunge will not do any harm to them. They need an unbelievable price to buy
: back. Do you think 1100 to 1200 is unbelievable price?
:
: currencies
: suicide

m*a2011-08-25 07:08

10 楼

I do not guess usd index to be 80 or spx to be 1000, other than that, I
totally agree with your thoughts. I now realize that the plunge of gold and
silver 2 days ago is a warning of deflationary wave, not because of margin
hikes. Margin hikes are just helping you from loss too much for the coming
economic collapse. What do you guys think?

do
As
In
oil
US

【在 o**y 的大作中提到】

: I don't believe there is much smart money. Most institute investors only do
: an average job. The only different thing is that they have more money than
: individual investors. I think most institute investors' money is still in
: stock market, that's why the SPY is still so high compared to 2009's low. As
: I said US dollar is going to rebound pretty soon, at least beack to 80. In
: the meantime, liquidity starts to shrink so that SPY may plunge to 1000, oil
: price to 70, gold price to 1600. In short, everything except cash will be
: cheaper pretty soon. After that, FED will introduce another QE to plunge US
: dollar, or in other word, to push money back to assets market (stocks,
: commodities, bonds) from the cash.

k*82011-08-25 07:08

11 楼

deflationary wave?
i was taught not to fight the fed since i was in my mom's stomach

and

【在 m****a 的大作中提到】

: I do not guess usd index to be 80 or spx to be 1000, other than that, I
: totally agree with your thoughts. I now realize that the plunge of gold and
: silver 2 days ago is a warning of deflationary wave, not because of margin
: hikes. Margin hikes are just helping you from loss too much for the coming
: economic collapse. What do you guys think?
:
: do
: As
: In
: oil

m*a2011-08-25 07:08

12 楼

Did you experience 2008 deflationary wave? What is the gold/silver behavior
at that time?

【在 k********8 的大作中提到】

: deflationary wave?
: i was taught not to fight the fed since i was in my mom's stomach
:
: and

k*82011-08-25 07:08

13 楼

credit crunch is another story.
ted spread was crazy back then.
people have to liquidate even gold/silver to get cash for whatever use

behavior

【在 m****a 的大作中提到】

: Did you experience 2008 deflationary wave? What is the gold/silver behavior
: at that time?