2011Q3 季报分析讨论 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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2011Q3 季报分析讨论

2011Q3 季报分析讨论# Stock

u*e2011-10-17 07:10

1 楼

请大家将所有关于ER 的分析和预测放在此thread 下
所有有数据支持的独立思考/分析都可能有包子奖励,呵呵
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发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: XUER, please bet on GS ER
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 11 16:43:35 2011, 美东)
According to reports late Monday, GS is expected to report its lowest
quarterly profit since the financial crisis of 2008.
Citi said it now expects Goldman Sachs to report a third-quarter loss of 65
cents per share, down from prior expectations for earnings of 10 cents per
share.
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发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: JPM ER guess
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 12 16:25:03 2011, 美东)
JPMorgan (JPM) may meet or slightly beat Lowered Expectations,
But Trading Losses Linger
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发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: JPM 和GOOG ER数据分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 12 16:30:43 2011, 美东)
JPMorgan (JPM) may meet or slightly beat Lowered Expectations,
But Trading Losses Linger
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发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: GOOG ER Guess
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 13 14:19:15 2011, 美东)
纯属瞎蒙，概不负责：
After the market close, Google is expected to report earnings of $8.74 per
share on revenue of $7.21 billion.
Because Ad spending ramps, GOOG should beat the expectation.
For the specific number guess, I think the EPS will be around $9.2.
However, in the guidance, Motorola Questions Remain.
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发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: ER与GOOG股价
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 13 16:54:54 2011, 美东)
ER出来了，GOOG大beat。
现在GOOG股价是593.40(+6.1% AH)
然而盘后价是不算数的，大家不要激动。
以我的经验：
明天早晨开盘后如果大环境不好板块不好可能降成+1%，但不会变红。
各方面条件都不错的话也可能升成+11%。
还是那句话：瞎猜的。
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发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: 关于明早开奖的三大ER的马前炮
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 17 16:41:15 2011, 美东)
我只能试着预测ER的EPS是miss还是beat，
除非是大beat大miss，一般ER出来之后的股票是涨是跌要看MM的解读了。
这里还有一些今天发的马前炮：
（可惜没有人来看）
BAC: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/Stock/33906265.html
miss EPS
JNJ: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/Stock/33906431.html
slightly miss (-0.01 or -0.02) or inline or slightly beat(+0.01 or +0.02)
KO: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t0/Stock/33906367.html
in-line or slightly beat EPS
---------------
发信人: lichenni (大马甲), 信区: Stock
标题: 大马甲的KO ER Guess
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 17 15:35:10 2011, 美东)
纯属瞎蒙，概不负责：
Ahead of the bell Tuesday, Coca-Cola is expected to post sales of $12.02
billion and earnings of $1.02 per share.
On average, 11 analysts are expecting a drop of $-0.15 in earnings per
share
compared to last quarter's results of $1.17. Investors will be looking
to
top $1.02 per share, based on the estimated mean earnings. Analyst
estimates
range between $0.98 and $1.03 per share.
The KO earning report relies on emerging markets.
I also noticed that recent indications of higher soda pricing in the US.
:)
Since KO's EPS is usually stable in history,
I expect the EPS will
1. be in-line
2. Or slightly beat, i.e. +0.01 or +0.02
3. Or slightly miss, i.e. -0.01 or -0.02
There will be no big miss or big beat for this quarter.

n*22011-10-17 07:10

2 楼

有空一定请大马甲演示一下是咋猜的。

l*i2011-10-17 07:10

3 楼

大马甲的BAC ER Guess
纯属瞎蒙，概不负责：
Ahead of the bell Tuesday, BAC is expected to report earnings of 20 cents
per share on revenue of $25.95 billion. The consensus range is 9c-34c for
EPS, and revenue of $22.52B-$29.42B.
Q3’s results of BAC will benefit from divestitures announced during the
quarter, but is likely to be partially offset by a $1.2 billion loss on the
sale of its stake in HCA and continued (but sharply lower) elevated mortgage
-related costs. Capital markets related revenue was very weak in the
thirdquarter, particularly in trading and investment banking, and down
especially sharply in the higher risk areas.
I personally think investment banking fees and trading loss will hurt BAC's
ER.
I expect BAC will miss the EPS.

l*i2011-10-17 07:10

4 楼

大马甲的JNJ ER Guess
纯属瞎蒙，概不负责：
The Street is currently looking for Johnson & Johnson to report earnings
of
$1.21 on revenue of $16.02 billion before the market opens Tuesday.
On average, 16 analysts are expecting a drop of $-0.07 in earnings per
share
compared to last quarter's results of $1.28. A beat of $1.21 per share
will
top the estimated per share earnings. Analyst estimates range between
$1.16
and $1.30 per share.
JNJ's ER should benefit from FX, Generics. In addition, management may
provide an update on the Consumer business and recent new product
launches.
I personally think the EPS should be in-line or slightly beat the
expectation.

l*i2011-10-17 07:10

5 楼

大马甲的KO ER Guess
纯属瞎蒙，概不负责：
Ahead of the bell Tuesday, Coca-Cola is expected to post sales of $12.02
billion and earnings of $1.02 per share.
On average, 11 analysts are expecting a drop of $-0.15 in earnings per
share
compared to last quarter's results of $1.17. Investors will be looking
to
top $1.02 per share, based on the estimated mean earnings. Analyst
estimates
range between $0.98 and $1.03 per share.
The KO earning report relies on emerging markets.
I also noticed that recent indications of higher soda pricing in the US.
:)
Since KO's EPS is usually stable in history,
I expect the EPS will
1. be in-line
2. Or slightly beat, i.e. +0.01 or +0.02
3. Or slightly miss, i.e. -0.01 or -0.02
There will be no big miss or big beat for this quarter.

k*f2011-10-17 07:10

6 楼

猜个俺看重的ER: UNH
Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast, on average, earnings of $1.12 per
share on $25.41 billion in revenue.
俺预测：
EPS: $1.25
Revenue: in line or miss a bit (～24.9 billion).
看重原因：
Medical spending ratio -》consumer spending,
Enrollment in commercial plans -》 private sector hiring