aapl er 前的option解读，预测到大跌。# Stock
G*S
1 楼
俺的理解很迷糊，
option大牛给个summary就好了。
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11281149/1/aapl-options-earnings
As I look at the way Apple(AAPL_) options are trading today I can tell you a
few things:
1. There is not very much premium selling going on, especially in large
block orders. This implies that the market thinks that option prices as a
whole are too cheap.
2. There is a lot of buying in two main places, the straddle and upside
calls. The fact that the straddle IV is more expensive in volatility terms
than downside is shocking to me. I would have expected AAPL to have a
standard equity curve where puts are more expensive than calls. I will
explain how this will affect after hours trading in a few moments (once I
wrap up calls).
3. Upside calls are being bid up to the Nth degree, this is also quite
unusual and a sign of just how exuberant and frenzied upside buying is in
this stock. Call buying like this comes from two places.
a. Traders putting on the buy-write synthetic, thus unwinding their long
stock and buying calls in case the stock rallies hard.
b. Trader making speculative bets on the upside.
4. October and November as a whole are really pricy, but traders seem to be
willing to sell November to buy October.
What does all this mean? I think long holders have a real problem on their
hands. Not that AAPL is going to have bad earnings, but that there is going
to be some major friction on the upside and little friction on the downside.
Holders of long calls (especially upside) are going to have stock for sale
as AAPL rallies (if it rallies). This could cause the stock to run into
problems as it starts breaking its ATM straddle price.
On the flip side, because IV is so inexpensive on the put side of the curve,
it appears that there are not a lot of AAPL put holders, or worse yet,
there are shorts. This actually creates a low selling viscosity if the stock
does start to sell off. There are very few areas where major firms will
have much of an impetus to step in and buy the stock until it gets back
towards the $385 level.
My thoughts, I am not sure which way AAPL moves but a short 1 ATM long 2 OTM
put ratio spread seems to have favorable odds. While AAPL smells like a
stay-away, one trade that seems interesting is the AAPL 425-410 ratio
putspread for a $60 credit. However, there are some major risks with this
spread and I could see AAPL opening up at $405-$410 tomorrow (which would be
really bad).
This stock has a lot of illogical trading going on right now, and I am going
to wipe my hands clean on this one. I have presented why I think it's a
sell, and I would certainly not be willing to hold the physical stock
through earnings.
option大牛给个summary就好了。
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11281149/1/aapl-options-earnings
As I look at the way Apple(AAPL_) options are trading today I can tell you a
few things:
1. There is not very much premium selling going on, especially in large
block orders. This implies that the market thinks that option prices as a
whole are too cheap.
2. There is a lot of buying in two main places, the straddle and upside
calls. The fact that the straddle IV is more expensive in volatility terms
than downside is shocking to me. I would have expected AAPL to have a
standard equity curve where puts are more expensive than calls. I will
explain how this will affect after hours trading in a few moments (once I
wrap up calls).
3. Upside calls are being bid up to the Nth degree, this is also quite
unusual and a sign of just how exuberant and frenzied upside buying is in
this stock. Call buying like this comes from two places.
a. Traders putting on the buy-write synthetic, thus unwinding their long
stock and buying calls in case the stock rallies hard.
b. Trader making speculative bets on the upside.
4. October and November as a whole are really pricy, but traders seem to be
willing to sell November to buy October.
What does all this mean? I think long holders have a real problem on their
hands. Not that AAPL is going to have bad earnings, but that there is going
to be some major friction on the upside and little friction on the downside.
Holders of long calls (especially upside) are going to have stock for sale
as AAPL rallies (if it rallies). This could cause the stock to run into
problems as it starts breaking its ATM straddle price.
On the flip side, because IV is so inexpensive on the put side of the curve,
it appears that there are not a lot of AAPL put holders, or worse yet,
there are shorts. This actually creates a low selling viscosity if the stock
does start to sell off. There are very few areas where major firms will
have much of an impetus to step in and buy the stock until it gets back
towards the $385 level.
My thoughts, I am not sure which way AAPL moves but a short 1 ATM long 2 OTM
put ratio spread seems to have favorable odds. While AAPL smells like a
stay-away, one trade that seems interesting is the AAPL 425-410 ratio
putspread for a $60 credit. However, there are some major risks with this
spread and I could see AAPL opening up at $405-$410 tomorrow (which would be
really bad).
This stock has a lot of illogical trading going on right now, and I am going
to wipe my hands clean on this one. I have presented why I think it's a
sell, and I would certainly not be willing to hold the physical stock
through earnings.
