Excerpt : GMCR David Einhorn# Stock
j*h
1 楼
"Einhorn then moved onto criticizing the company: Poor transparency. Doesn’
t even report lbs shipped, k-cup units, or precise Keurig brewers units.
GMCR has cut their amount disclosure over time, which is what companies
usually do when metrics are deteriorating."
Einhorn discusses in 2008 GMCR published Total Pounds shipped, as well as
pounds shipped per channel. He indicates that in 3Q11 this ceased to be
reported.
He claims in 2008 units were rounded to the nearest thousand, and now 3Q11,
units are reported to the nearest one hundred thousand.
He cites other examples as well.
"Bull case: 64 million households drink coffee, 1/3 buy K-cup machines, 2
cups per day, 15.5B k-cups, 0.15 profit per cup, get $1.4B profit, on 160M
shares is $8 eps."
Bear case, vs. the bulls $9 eps estimate. Cut attach rate to 1.25 K-cups per
brewer, add 20% private label penetration, cut profit per cut to 0.12 from
0.15, gets you $3.50 eps, not $9.00."
"Attachment rate is declining or flat, only about 1.3 per brewer per day.
GMCR doesn't disclose the attach rate!"
"CAPEX: Spending a lot on CAPEX that is “unexplained.” As much as $186M in
2011- where is this money going? Next year it looks even worse, $431M in
unexplained CAPEX based on their guidance. CAPEX growing faster than the
business, when the opposite should be happening."
t even report lbs shipped, k-cup units, or precise Keurig brewers units.
GMCR has cut their amount disclosure over time, which is what companies
usually do when metrics are deteriorating."
Einhorn discusses in 2008 GMCR published Total Pounds shipped, as well as
pounds shipped per channel. He indicates that in 3Q11 this ceased to be
reported.
He claims in 2008 units were rounded to the nearest thousand, and now 3Q11,
units are reported to the nearest one hundred thousand.
He cites other examples as well.
"Bull case: 64 million households drink coffee, 1/3 buy K-cup machines, 2
cups per day, 15.5B k-cups, 0.15 profit per cup, get $1.4B profit, on 160M
shares is $8 eps."
Bear case, vs. the bulls $9 eps estimate. Cut attach rate to 1.25 K-cups per
brewer, add 20% private label penetration, cut profit per cut to 0.12 from
0.15, gets you $3.50 eps, not $9.00."
"Attachment rate is declining or flat, only about 1.3 per brewer per day.
GMCR doesn't disclose the attach rate!"
"CAPEX: Spending a lot on CAPEX that is “unexplained.” As much as $186M in
2011- where is this money going? Next year it looks even worse, $431M in
unexplained CAPEX based on their guidance. CAPEX growing faster than the
business, when the opposite should be happening."