y*o
2 楼
http://seekingalpha.com/article/601251-i-told-you-so-facebook-s
Earlier, I wrote that Facebook's (FB) IPO is becoming a sucker's bet. On its
IPO debut, Facebook started at $42, hit a high of $45 for a brief moment,
and then turned south quickly. It hovered around the round number
psychological price of $40, and went directly to $38 at approximately 11:50
EDT. $38, Facebook's official IPO price, provides the second psychological
barrier that sustained through the day. Its price bounced back from there
and stay above $38 for most of the rest of the day. The fact that $38 has
been hit multiple times during the day makes it a very ugly IPO.
Once $38 is penetrated, the bottom for Facebook's stock price can be pretty
deep.
By midday, many Facebook related plays went down in sympathy: Zynga (ZNGA)
was down 13.3% and its trade was halted. Renren (RENN), the Chinese
equivalent of Facebook, was down 9.4%. GSV Capital (GSVC) and Firsthand
Technology Value Fund (SVVC), two funds heavily vested in Facebook were down
12.4% and 18.6%, respectively. Pandora (P) was down 6%. Groupon (GRPN) was
down 4.9%.
Why did the market give Facebook such a lukewarm response? It is too
expensive. The expected return for shareholders who purchased at the IPO
price of $38 is not very rich, even under the most optimistic scenario.
We can use a very simple calculation to value Facebook's IPO. The goal is to
find a price that can give investors a reasonable return in the next five
years.
First we gauge Facebook's approximate terminal valuation five years from now
. Given its recent growth trend (around 100% in 2010 but dropped to only 37%
during Q1 2012), we use what I believe to be a fairly generous 50% year-on-
year revenue growth over the next five years. That would give Facebook
approximately $28 billion in revenue five years from now. Using Google's (
GOOG) profit margin of 25%, this method predicts Facebook makes $7 billion
in profit in 2017. Using a P/E ratio of 20 (again with Google as the
benchmark -- this is higher than Google's current level), this predicts that
Facebook may have a market cap of $140 billion five years from now.
Without considering likely dilution due to stock options as compensation and
stock issuance for acquisition purposes, the following table provides
Facebook's annual return for different possible IPO market cap:
IPO Market Cap
(billion) IPO Price Market Cap in 2017
(billion) Annual Return
$ 70.00 $ 25.55 $ 140 15%
$ 80.00 $ 29.20 $ 140 12%
$ 90.00 $ 32.85 $ 140 9%
$ 100.00 $ 36.50 $ 140 7%
$ 110.00 $ 40.15 $ 140 5%
If Facebook's IPO price were $25.55, the expected five-year return is only
15%. At $38, Facebook's five-year return is about 6%. That is below S&P 500'
s index's long term return of above 9%.
This gives a gross yet clear picture of why Facebook had such an
unenthusiastic IPO day. At $38, it is way too expensive. With all the hype
in this stock, it could stay overvalued for some time. Yet, even if it drops
another 30%, with 15% annual return, it is still not that appealing
considering the risk of Facebook not being able to grow its revenue at an
average of 50% annually over the next five years.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Earlier, I wrote that Facebook's (FB) IPO is becoming a sucker's bet. On its
IPO debut, Facebook started at $42, hit a high of $45 for a brief moment,
and then turned south quickly. It hovered around the round number
psychological price of $40, and went directly to $38 at approximately 11:50
EDT. $38, Facebook's official IPO price, provides the second psychological
barrier that sustained through the day. Its price bounced back from there
and stay above $38 for most of the rest of the day. The fact that $38 has
been hit multiple times during the day makes it a very ugly IPO.
Once $38 is penetrated, the bottom for Facebook's stock price can be pretty
deep.
By midday, many Facebook related plays went down in sympathy: Zynga (ZNGA)
was down 13.3% and its trade was halted. Renren (RENN), the Chinese
equivalent of Facebook, was down 9.4%. GSV Capital (GSVC) and Firsthand
Technology Value Fund (SVVC), two funds heavily vested in Facebook were down
12.4% and 18.6%, respectively. Pandora (P) was down 6%. Groupon (GRPN) was
down 4.9%.
Why did the market give Facebook such a lukewarm response? It is too
expensive. The expected return for shareholders who purchased at the IPO
price of $38 is not very rich, even under the most optimistic scenario.
We can use a very simple calculation to value Facebook's IPO. The goal is to
find a price that can give investors a reasonable return in the next five
years.
First we gauge Facebook's approximate terminal valuation five years from now
. Given its recent growth trend (around 100% in 2010 but dropped to only 37%
during Q1 2012), we use what I believe to be a fairly generous 50% year-on-
year revenue growth over the next five years. That would give Facebook
approximately $28 billion in revenue five years from now. Using Google's (
GOOG) profit margin of 25%, this method predicts Facebook makes $7 billion
in profit in 2017. Using a P/E ratio of 20 (again with Google as the
benchmark -- this is higher than Google's current level), this predicts that
Facebook may have a market cap of $140 billion five years from now.
Without considering likely dilution due to stock options as compensation and
stock issuance for acquisition purposes, the following table provides
Facebook's annual return for different possible IPO market cap:
IPO Market Cap
(billion) IPO Price Market Cap in 2017
(billion) Annual Return
$ 70.00 $ 25.55 $ 140 15%
$ 80.00 $ 29.20 $ 140 12%
$ 90.00 $ 32.85 $ 140 9%
$ 100.00 $ 36.50 $ 140 7%
$ 110.00 $ 40.15 $ 140 5%
If Facebook's IPO price were $25.55, the expected five-year return is only
15%. At $38, Facebook's five-year return is about 6%. That is below S&P 500'
s index's long term return of above 9%.
This gives a gross yet clear picture of why Facebook had such an
unenthusiastic IPO day. At $38, it is way too expensive. With all the hype
in this stock, it could stay overvalued for some time. Yet, even if it drops
another 30%, with 15% annual return, it is still not that appealing
considering the risk of Facebook not being able to grow its revenue at an
average of 50% annually over the next five years.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
R*g
3 楼
我怎么一个都没有收到？
s*i
4 楼
写得挺好，问题是普通的散户不会这样分析，有不少人还是不惜代价也要买
t*y
5 楼
re
【在 c*********e 的大作中提到】
: 发现限制还挺多
【在 c*********e 的大作中提到】
: 发现限制还挺多
N*S
6 楼
闪户根本不会买，去读一下yahoo finance and market watch 的评论，没看到几个positive comment, 回
复有近2000，
2000年的教训所有人都记忆如新
估计只有中投这样的大fund且不在乎亏本的买
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
【在 s***i 的大作中提到】
: 写得挺好，问题是普通的散户不会这样分析，有不少人还是不惜代价也要买
复有近2000，
2000年的教训所有人都记忆如新
估计只有中投这样的大fund且不在乎亏本的买
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
【在 s***i 的大作中提到】
: 写得挺好，问题是普通的散户不会这样分析，有不少人还是不惜代价也要买
相关阅读