Facebook’s stock should trade for $13.80# Stock
G*D
1 楼
这边有多少人收到退货，EVIL以旧换新还要求full refund的？
看ebay跟Amazo那边讨论这类的case愈来愈多了？
这边有多少人收到退货，EVIK以旧换新还要求full refund的？
看ebay跟Amazo那边讨论这类的case愈来愈多了？
这边有多少人收到退货，EVIK以旧换新还要求full refund的？
h*t
2 楼
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebooks-stock-should-trade-f
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Well, then, what should be the price of
Facebook’s stock?
Rather than endlessly rehashing the events that have taken place over the
last week, it is this question that investors should be asking. Surprisingly
, however, few are doing so.
And yet, courtesy of a just-released study, calculating a fair price for
Facebook’s stock isn’t as difficult as it might otherwise seem.
The study is entitled “Post-IPO Employment and Revenue Growth for U.S. IPOs
, June 1996–2010.” Its authors are Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the
University of Florida, and two researchers at the University of California,
Davis: Martin Kenney, a professor in the Department of Human and Community
Development, and Donald Patton, a research associate in that same department
. ( Click here to read a copy of their study. )
The researchers found that the revenue of the average company going public
in the period analyzed in the study grew by 212% over the five years after
its IPO (excluding spinoffs and buyouts). Assuming Facebook’s revenue grows
just as fast, and given that the company’s latest-year revenue was $3.71
billion, its annual revenue in five years’ time will be $11.58 billion.
Click to Play
NYSE, Nasdaq face off for Facebook
After the fumbled IPO for Facebook, the NYSE is renewing efforts to lure
more stock listings away from its rival, Nasdaq, Photo: AFP/Getty Images.
Since Facebook FB -3.54% is most often compared to Google GOOG -2.29% ,
let’s assume that its price-to-sales ratio in five years will be just as
high as Google’s is currently: 5.51-to-1. You could argue that this is an
overly generous assumption, of course. But it nevertheless means Facebook’s
market cap in five years will be just $63.8 billion — 30% less than where
it stands today.
Assuming that the total number of its shares stays constant, that works out
to a price per share of just $23.26 — in contrast to its recent closing
price of $33.03.
Ouch.
Actually, however, the news is even worse: No one is going to invest in
Facebook shares today if its price will be 30% lower in five years. So, in
order to entice someone to invest in it today, Facebook needs to offer a
handsome return. Assuming that its five-year return is equal to the stock
market’s long-term average return of 11% annualized, Facebook shares
currently would need to be trading at just $13.80.
Double ouch.
Don’t like that answer? Try focusing on earnings rather than sales, and you
get only a marginally different result. Assuming its profit margin stays
constant (instead of falling as it could very well do as it grows), assuming
its P/E ratio in five years will be just as high as Google’s is today, and
assuming that its stock will produce a five-year return of 11% annualized,
Facebook’s stock today should be just $16.66.
How can Facebook investors wriggle out from underneath the awful picture
these calculations paint? By assuming that its revenue and profitability
will grow faster than the average IPO between 1996 and 2010 — and not just
by a little bit, either, but a whole lot faster.
Of course, it’s always possible that Facebook will be able to pull that off.
But, as Professor Ritter pointed out to me earlier this week, “the bigger a
company gets, the harder it is to maintain percentage growth.” And
Facebook is already huge — larger, in fact, than all but 47 other publicly
traded companies in the U.S., by market capitalization.
So my back-of-the-envelope calculations for this column could very well be
too optimistic rather than too pessimistic.
Given all this, Ritter said that a market cap “of $63 billion ... five
years from now seems like a very reasonable scenario.”
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He
has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since
1980.
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Well, then, what should be the price of
Facebook’s stock?
Rather than endlessly rehashing the events that have taken place over the
last week, it is this question that investors should be asking. Surprisingly
, however, few are doing so.
And yet, courtesy of a just-released study, calculating a fair price for
Facebook’s stock isn’t as difficult as it might otherwise seem.
The study is entitled “Post-IPO Employment and Revenue Growth for U.S. IPOs
, June 1996–2010.” Its authors are Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the
University of Florida, and two researchers at the University of California,
Davis: Martin Kenney, a professor in the Department of Human and Community
Development, and Donald Patton, a research associate in that same department
. ( Click here to read a copy of their study. )
The researchers found that the revenue of the average company going public
in the period analyzed in the study grew by 212% over the five years after
its IPO (excluding spinoffs and buyouts). Assuming Facebook’s revenue grows
just as fast, and given that the company’s latest-year revenue was $3.71
billion, its annual revenue in five years’ time will be $11.58 billion.
Click to Play
NYSE, Nasdaq face off for Facebook
After the fumbled IPO for Facebook, the NYSE is renewing efforts to lure
more stock listings away from its rival, Nasdaq, Photo: AFP/Getty Images.
Since Facebook FB -3.54% is most often compared to Google GOOG -2.29% ,
let’s assume that its price-to-sales ratio in five years will be just as
high as Google’s is currently: 5.51-to-1. You could argue that this is an
overly generous assumption, of course. But it nevertheless means Facebook’s
market cap in five years will be just $63.8 billion — 30% less than where
it stands today.
Assuming that the total number of its shares stays constant, that works out
to a price per share of just $23.26 — in contrast to its recent closing
price of $33.03.
Ouch.
Actually, however, the news is even worse: No one is going to invest in
Facebook shares today if its price will be 30% lower in five years. So, in
order to entice someone to invest in it today, Facebook needs to offer a
handsome return. Assuming that its five-year return is equal to the stock
market’s long-term average return of 11% annualized, Facebook shares
currently would need to be trading at just $13.80.
Double ouch.
Don’t like that answer? Try focusing on earnings rather than sales, and you
get only a marginally different result. Assuming its profit margin stays
constant (instead of falling as it could very well do as it grows), assuming
its P/E ratio in five years will be just as high as Google’s is today, and
assuming that its stock will produce a five-year return of 11% annualized,
Facebook’s stock today should be just $16.66.
How can Facebook investors wriggle out from underneath the awful picture
these calculations paint? By assuming that its revenue and profitability
will grow faster than the average IPO between 1996 and 2010 — and not just
by a little bit, either, but a whole lot faster.
Of course, it’s always possible that Facebook will be able to pull that off.
But, as Professor Ritter pointed out to me earlier this week, “the bigger a
company gets, the harder it is to maintain percentage growth.” And
Facebook is already huge — larger, in fact, than all but 47 other publicly
traded companies in the U.S., by market capitalization.
So my back-of-the-envelope calculations for this column could very well be
too optimistic rather than too pessimistic.
Given all this, Ritter said that a market cap “of $63 billion ... five
years from now seems like a very reasonable scenario.”
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He
has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since
1980.
w*t
3 楼
S/N match is important.
write ur s/n on ur invoice
write ur s/n on ur invoice
G*D
4 楼
有些情况是新的东西收回来却变成有刮伤，要不打入成本要不只能当used卖
h*x
5 楼
FBA的比例相当高，基本能保住本就不错啦
w*f
6 楼
量小的话，千万不要FBA.
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